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NBA TUE 031009 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #126

[Quote: Originally Posted by Joe_Vienna]

have 217

CLE @ LAC -> no play for me

BOL
Joe

Thanks Joe, So I must be in the ballpark?

 
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Posted: #127
CLE U looks good Ax...Kaman is coming back tonite n i can see it disrupting the flow of their already nonexistent offense. As well, that should slow the amount of times LBJ comes to the hoop w Camby and Kaman clogging the paint. Oh, and the Clips are horrible!:)....the line actually seems really high..likely due to Clips allowing points. I just dont see LAC scoring much more than in the 80's.
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by threesevens:

I have been tinkering around with a formula that I have been using to determine O/U totals. I will tell you what I do and would just like some feedback as to wether I am off base here or maybe I have something of value to use in capping these totals.
 
I will use tonight Dallas/Phoenix game as an example:
 
First, I take dallas/phoenix points for and against totals for the year ( Dallas 101.1 for/99.5 against = 200.6; Phoenix 107.3/105.8 = 213.1 ) Then, I add up each teams last five game totals so that I can get a feel for what each team has been doing more recently. Next, I add up the two teams Season Series Totals to get an average of what they have done so far this season between the two. Finally I add the yearly totals + the last five game total average + the Season Series average to get a final average for each team. Take each teams final average and average out those final two numbers.
 
Dallas  101.1/pf 99.5/pa = 200.6 + Last 5 avg. 202.6 + season series avg 218.5 = 207.2
Phoenix  107.3/pf 105.8/pa = 213.1 +last 5 avg 226.4 + season series avg 218.5 = 219.3
 
207.2+219.3=426.5/2=213.25
 
I now check the trends in the series between the two teams to see what has historically been done (over/under) and use this number against the line to determine wether I should bet under or over. Any feedback would be welcomed. Kind of new to betting totals and I am just trying to find my way....Thanks for the help and Good Luck to All !!

IMHO...Great start...I believe you are on the right track...but the method is not the important part...believe it or not...all our statistical analysis will yield about the same figure within 1 or 2 standard deviation...here's the secret and take it for what it's worth...

TRACK YOUR NUMBERS AGAINST THE VEGAS NUMBERS

you'll have an idea of where you'd like the number to be.  how are you doing when your number is off 5points...how are you doing when your number is off 10points?  I wish I could give a seminar on this but I firmly believe it's not the method but how your method plays against the number...

You are off to a great start...you now have a pre-cap number you will buy in at, now the tracking will let you know if you have value or not...BOL
 
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Posted: #129
The last 3 games IN LA have totaled 198, 196, 192.
The game is in LA - LA LA Land...............nice place for LBJ to show.  And after his 5 for 15 night the last game out - I would only worry that he alone would put on a showcase and may push this number over.  '

The total seems to be creeping up........

I like the DALL / PHX a little more...............though we may be chewing on our nails till the very end of the game.  These 2 teams haven't eclipsed this total since an OT game in March 2 years ago.  Phoenix's production has started to decline since their crazy offensive output that came with the coaching change.  Could they realize as their season begins to slip away that they should at least attempt some defense if they want to keep playing past April 15th????  Maybe Shaq's comments will have them fired up, or bummed out...................either should help the under.
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by MIAMI_MONEY:

Ax, I have been reading this thread and it is professional vs the others I have seen on here. You guys really share ideas without attacking one another. I cap locally but will start posting my threads and feedback to help other if needed.
 
Here are some key facts on LAC/CAVS
All games played at LA CLIPPERS since 1996
CLEVELAND is 7-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS since 1996
CLEVELAND is 6-5 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996

7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

We talk, We decide, We Win!


Hell ya...welcome aboard, we are happy to have anyone willing to share!
 
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Posted: #131
[Quote: Originally Posted by vegasace99]
CLE U looks good Ax...Kaman is coming back tonite n i can see it disrupting the flow of their already nonexistent offense. As well, that should slow the amount of times LBJ comes to the hoop w Camby and Kaman clogging the paint. Oh, and the Clips are horrible!:)....the line actually seems really high..likely due to Clips allowing points. I just dont see LAC scoring much more than in the 80's.
 
I could be wrong but I believe Camby is doubtful tonight with migraines. If so, I think that would free up the middle for LBJ without much resistance, no?
 
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Posted: #132

Quote Originally Posted by Joe_Vienna:


have 217

CLE @ LAC -> no play for me


ur 217 total is for Dall/Phx not Cavs/Lac, right?

In other words, in your opinion...

217  = dall under =

???  = cavs under = no play for you

 

 
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Posted: #133
Tid-bit: LAL r are 2-10 O/A w/ T between 190 and 194.5.
 
 
 
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Posted: #134
[Quote: Originally Posted by axpiota59]

IMHO...Great start...I believe you are on the right track...but the method is not the important part...believe it or not...all our statistical analysis will yield about the same figure within 1 or 2 standard deviation...here's the secret and take it for what it's worth...

TRACK YOUR NUMBERS AGAINST THE VEGAS NUMBERS

you'll have an idea of where you'd like the number to be.  how are you doing when your number is off 5points...how are you doing when your number is off 10points?  I wish I could give a seminar on this but I firmly believe it's not the method but how your method plays against the number...

You are off to a great start...you now have a pre-cap number you will buy in at, now the tracking will let you know if you have value or not...BOL
 
Ax...thank you very much for the tip.
Much appreciated.
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by BigWaveDave:

The last 3 games IN LA have totaled 198, 196, 192.
The game is in LA - LA LA Land...............nice place for LBJ to show.  And after his 5 for 15 night the last game out - I would only worry that he alone would put on a showcase and may push this number over.  '

The total seems to be creeping up........

I like the DALL / PHX a little more...............though we may be chewing on our nails till the very end of the game.  These 2 teams haven't eclipsed this total since an OT game in March 2 years ago.  Phoenix's production has started to decline since their crazy offensive output that came with the coaching change.  Could they realize as their season begins to slip away that they should at least attempt some defense if they want to keep playing past April 15th????  Maybe Shaq's comments will have them fired up, or bummed out...................either should help the under.

Great point BWD...I was thinking exactly the same thing with DAL/PHO...I like it also but the  i can't live with.  LOL

My take on the CLE game is Defense.  While they are playing in Glittertown, it's a Tuesday night and I don't think the NBA fans in LA know there's another team in LA.  LOL  I got some more capping to do.  Love your point though about LBJ but remember this one thing about him...he can live with a 5/15 night as long as his team wins...remember the interview with magic...he doesn't need to average a triple double...it's not about him...it's about his team...

Thanks pal
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by FlippaCoin:

ur 217 total is for Dall/Phx not Cavs/Lac, right?

In other words, in your opinion...

217  = dall under =

???  = cavs under = no play for you

 



DAL @ PHX 217 -> POD

CLE @ LAC 193 -> no play

Hope I'm right!

BOL
Joe
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by Joe_Vienna:



DAL @ PHX 217 -> POD

CLE @ LAC 193 -> no play

Hope I'm right!

BOL
Joe

no worries joe...listen man, find me a guy in here that's NOT guessing!  
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by threesevens:

Quote Originally Posted by vegasace99:

CLE U looks good Ax...Kaman is coming back tonite n i can see it disrupting the flow of their already nonexistent offense. As well, that should slow the amount of times LBJ comes to the hoop w Camby and Kaman clogging the paint. Oh, and the Clips are horrible!:)....the line actually seems really high..likely due to Clips allowing points. I just dont see LAC scoring much more than in the 80's.
 
I could be wrong but I believe Camby is doubtful tonight with migraines. If so, I think that would free up the middle for LBJ without much resistance, no?

He didnt play last game on account of migraines... thinkin hell be back tonite but havent seen for sure....

 
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Posted: #139
[Quote: Originally Posted by vegasace99]

He didnt play last game on account of migraines... thinkin hell be back tonite but havent seen for sure....

just an fyi....

[C] 03/10/2009 - Marcus Camby missed last game, downgraded to doubtful Tuesday vs Cleveland ( Migraine )

 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


no worries joe...listen man, find me a guy in here that's NOT guessing!  











 
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Posted: #141
ok guys...how much is camby worth...defensively that is...are we talking 5 or 15 more points in the paint for the cavs?
 
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Posted: #142
ok guys, gotta look at some stuff not stored on the computer...old school...be back in a few hours...

this is the crappy part of capping...
 
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Posted: #143
going off the Square Sheet,  KingScorpio's name for the covers stats sheet given free here in every casino,  this is what the public looks at and goes off  in these books everyday!!!!  Wow here is a sell job by vegas  Dallas  38 -25  SU  Suns  34 - 29  So Mav's have a better record,  Suns 1 -4 SU L5,  Mavs 3 - 2 SU L5,  YET the Suns are a 7 point fav against what is precieved as a half decent team,  seems easy to take the points with the better team overall and playing better of recent. but inside the numbers  suns #3 in offense Mav's #11,  Suns #26 defense Mavs #14,  Rebounding Suns #11  Mavs #13.  I'll take the hard side to take suns -7 and I am the dog of all dog players for the most part!!!!!,  to me the line says suns win by double digits in this situation and game goes over.  best of luck to all
 
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Posted: #144
My take on the Kings game tonight:
 
In general, the Kings have been a NO PLAY for me all year.  So unless, I'm convinced otherwise, I don't expect that to change.  The team is so much in flux, that you don't know what you're gonna get each game.  Do you get the team that scored only 69 points at home against the Celtics or do we get the team we saw on Sunday night that embarrased the Nuggets?  For me, too many question marks = NO PLAY. 
 
For what it's worth, the team has looked more crisp on offense, but defensively still a nightmare since the trade deadline. 
 
FYI- I know it's a sucker bet to some, but I have played the OVER in the first qtr since January and have won most of the time.  I can count only about 3-4 losses during that span.  The Kings were averaging 28 points scoring 1 qtr in January and most of February.  That number has dropped a few notches since, but it's the only bet I have made on the Kings all year.  Ok...that's it...I promise that's the last I'll ever utter the word OVER on this board.
 
BOL to all!
 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

ok guys...how much is camby worth...defensively that is...are we talking 5 or 15 more points in the paint for the cavs?

 

Conservatively I believe you can add another 5 points to the Cavs total. I can see them score between 105-108 points tonight. Kaman is probable tonight however, he is obviously not 100%. Clippers don't have enough size down low to muscle up against LBJ. I don't see how the clippers get past 90.

 
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Posted: #146
FWIW, both the Cleveland and Phoenix games are showing signs of the number moving up as I type.....

U 193.5 is available at +102
and
U 231 is also at +102

(at matchbook)
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by threesevens:

 

Conservatively I believe you can add another 5 points to the Cavs total. I can see them score between 105-108 points tonight. Kaman is probable tonight however, he is obviously not 100%. Clippers don't have enough size down low to muscle up against LBJ. I don't see how the clippers get past 90.



Since this seems to be the consensus here today:

Team Total UNDER 91 -110

 
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by rickster2312:

going off the Square Sheet,  KingScorpio's name for the covers stats sheet given free here in every casino,  this is what the public looks at and goes off  in these books everyday!!!!  Wow here is a sell job by vegas  Dallas  38 -25  SU  Suns  34 - 29  So Mav's have a better record,  Suns 1 -4 SU L5,  Mavs 3 - 2 SU L5,  YET the Suns are a 7 point fav against what is precieved as a half decent team,  seems easy to take the points with the better team overall and playing better of recent. but inside the numbers  suns #3 in offense Mav's #11,  Suns #26 defense Mavs #14,  Rebounding Suns #11  Mavs #13.  I'll take the hard side to take suns -7 and I am the dog of all dog players for the most part!!!!!,  to me the line says suns win by double digits in this situation and game goes over.  best of luck to all


Love the Suns tonight, Must win or else their playoff hopes are done in my mind. You maybe able to get a better line as well as i am seeing 6's most of the public is on the dog which is never a good sign lol. I'll take the favorite this time.

PHO
Moneyline 97% 3%
Spread 61% 39%
Total (O/U) 63% 37%

 
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t
 
 
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Posted: #150
camby is out tonight
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