Greg Popavich was Larry Browns assistant for years. The way style of coaching that these two practice is identical. They also havea very close relationship I Pop was Larry Browns best man at his wedding Thsi is going to be a chess match between these two great coaches.. These two have a ton of respect for each other and pass that on to their teams. I have seen total go up because of the public and I will leaning toward the under if it hits 180. IMO this will not be a blow out too much respect here PEACE!
That's what I'm talking about...nice input pal...thank you...
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Quote Originally Posted by HoldenRg:
Greg Popavich was Larry Browns assistant for years. The way style of coaching that these two practice is identical. They also havea very close relationship I Pop was Larry Browns best man at his wedding Thsi is going to be a chess match between these two great coaches.. These two have a ton of respect for each other and pass that on to their teams. I have seen total go up because of the public and I will leaning toward the under if it hits 180. IMO this will not be a blow out too much respect here PEACE!
That's what I'm talking about...nice input pal...thank you...
Know you're prob in town -enjoy - I can never get enough of it. Re: LAL 'cashing in'. I 'broke even on it. Cashed on Atl /N.Orl very well. I'm tryin a new version of wagering some of these Unders. If the game seems strong/POD, and the 1H line is favorable (equal to or greater than 1/2 of game line, usually), I'll put between 1/3 and 1/2 of my game wager on the 1H. As w/ the N. Orl game - this worked wonderful ( I cashed the 1H easily) and the game was pretty much decided @ the 1H. So then I ckd 2H line to see if line seemed reasonable 'indicator' game will play out positive then I sat back and collect 'time and a half', so to speak.
How this worked w/ LAL game is (had a real good 1H line - like 102 or so): won the 1H line by very slim margin. Obviously bells rung and my first thought was this game line's in trouble. 2H line came out high ( around 98 - 99 ). At this point, obviously a choice has to be made. Game line is 202 and their right around 1/2 way there. I can do nothing and worse case is I'll be down small @ end. In this case I decided the lines were so close, the poss. of the game goin right in the middle was slim. so I did my best effort to 'by back' my game bet ( now available @ 1/2 price, cause I won the 1H).
Very long answer to your question, however the choices incorporated some of what 'we' use in capping games normally - like, line having approx. 6-9 point 'cushion'. This game @ 1H had virtually no cushion left. Hope that fillet was good. And I think I can now get on that site I talked abt y'day - went thru 'support' folks.
KB, great post. I love people that look at things from different perspectives. You come up with your own angles and figure things out on our own. Keep growing KB...that's what you're doing as a capper...keep growing and never stop learning.
Good to hear you got that resolved...you're going to be dangerous with all these new tools at your disposal!
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Quote Originally Posted by burnetto57:
Know you're prob in town -enjoy - I can never get enough of it. Re: LAL 'cashing in'. I 'broke even on it. Cashed on Atl /N.Orl very well. I'm tryin a new version of wagering some of these Unders. If the game seems strong/POD, and the 1H line is favorable (equal to or greater than 1/2 of game line, usually), I'll put between 1/3 and 1/2 of my game wager on the 1H. As w/ the N. Orl game - this worked wonderful ( I cashed the 1H easily) and the game was pretty much decided @ the 1H. So then I ckd 2H line to see if line seemed reasonable 'indicator' game will play out positive then I sat back and collect 'time and a half', so to speak.
How this worked w/ LAL game is (had a real good 1H line - like 102 or so): won the 1H line by very slim margin. Obviously bells rung and my first thought was this game line's in trouble. 2H line came out high ( around 98 - 99 ). At this point, obviously a choice has to be made. Game line is 202 and their right around 1/2 way there. I can do nothing and worse case is I'll be down small @ end. In this case I decided the lines were so close, the poss. of the game goin right in the middle was slim. so I did my best effort to 'by back' my game bet ( now available @ 1/2 price, cause I won the 1H).
Very long answer to your question, however the choices incorporated some of what 'we' use in capping games normally - like, line having approx. 6-9 point 'cushion'. This game @ 1H had virtually no cushion left. Hope that fillet was good. And I think I can now get on that site I talked abt y'day - went thru 'support' folks.
KB, great post. I love people that look at things from different perspectives. You come up with your own angles and figure things out on our own. Keep growing KB...that's what you're doing as a capper...keep growing and never stop learning.
Good to hear you got that resolved...you're going to be dangerous with all these new tools at your disposal!
What do you think about the Cle/LAC & Sac/OKC game? They look good for an under. Cleveland scores ~95 and the Clippers will score ~85. And who will score for Oklahoma? Since Green & Durant are out they don't get many points. Oklahoma has hold down LAL, Dallas & Philly under 100 points.
give me a few Crockie...just catching up and reading the thread. Once I'm caught up, I'm going to start some heavy duty capping...
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Quote Originally Posted by Crockie:
What do you think about the Cle/LAC & Sac/OKC game? They look good for an under. Cleveland scores ~95 and the Clippers will score ~85. And who will score for Oklahoma? Since Green & Durant are out they don't get many points. Oklahoma has hold down LAL, Dallas & Philly under 100 points.
give me a few Crockie...just catching up and reading the thread. Once I'm caught up, I'm going to start some heavy duty capping...
In the last 10 played between PHX and DAL, the highest the total has opened was 214.5. Anyone know why this is so high?
The last 10 totals between these two teams are:
228 209 203 206 213 230 256 (went to OT; total was 222 in regulation) 200 231 195
Still not seeing why it opened at 231.. trap? or just inflated?
off the top of my head...I'm thinking inflated...these numbers are the same numbers everyone else sees so I'm wondering, are the books thinking we'll just ignore these numbers and keep thinking "oh...PHO at home...run-and-gun...this is the old Suns...blah, blah, blah"...hmmm...I'm assuming we're leaning under of course but are these numbers enough to justify risking our hard earned pocket change?
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Quote Originally Posted by highside107:
In the last 10 played between PHX and DAL, the highest the total has opened was 214.5. Anyone know why this is so high?
The last 10 totals between these two teams are:
228 209 203 206 213 230 256 (went to OT; total was 222 in regulation) 200 231 195
Still not seeing why it opened at 231.. trap? or just inflated?
off the top of my head...I'm thinking inflated...these numbers are the same numbers everyone else sees so I'm wondering, are the books thinking we'll just ignore these numbers and keep thinking "oh...PHO at home...run-and-gun...this is the old Suns...blah, blah, blah"...hmmm...I'm assuming we're leaning under of course but are these numbers enough to justify risking our hard earned pocket change?
I say it's looking good but I've yet to finish my 'routine'...stats alone...I'd say yes...I haven't even looked at trending yet never mind situational...
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[Quote: Originally Posted by mpnyc76]
I'm thinking:
Suns under
Knicks o**r
Spurs o**r
what say you?
[/Quote
I say it's looking good but I've yet to finish my 'routine'...stats alone...I'd say yes...I haven't even looked at trending yet never mind situational...
I have the spurs over at 177.5. Might buy back If it gets high enough by game time. Might be a long shot but could middle it. I think the total could be right around where it opened.
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I have the spurs over at 177.5. Might buy back If it gets high enough by game time. Might be a long shot but could middle it. I think the total could be right around where it opened.
The total in all previous metings between these two recently has been 210-216. This year, Dallas is a 97 ppg road team.. 66% under the number on the road this year........missing their 2nd leading scorer, and we get a 231? Not to mention the absence of Amare.
Dampier historically plays D on shaq tougher than most.
Number just seems out of whack. I guess every time the Suns take he court we're going to get something in the neighborhood of 230.
0
That Dal/Phx number looks *fat*
The total in all previous metings between these two recently has been 210-216. This year, Dallas is a 97 ppg road team.. 66% under the number on the road this year........missing their 2nd leading scorer, and we get a 231? Not to mention the absence of Amare.
Dampier historically plays D on shaq tougher than most.
Number just seems out of whack. I guess every time the Suns take he court we're going to get something in the neighborhood of 230.
I have been tinkering around with a formula that I have been using to determine O/U totals. I will tell you what I do and would just like some feedback as to wether I am off base here or maybe I have something of value to use in capping these totals.
I will use tonight Dallas/Phoenix game as an example:
First, I take dallas/phoenix points for and against totals for the year ( Dallas 101.1 for/99.5 against = 200.6; Phoenix 107.3/105.8 = 213.1 ) Then, I add up each teams last five game totals so that I can get a feel for what each team has been doing more recently. Next, I add up the two teams Season Series Totals to get an average of what they have done so far this season between the two. Finally I add the yearly totals + the last five game total average + the Season Series average to get a final average for each team. Take each teams final average and average out those final two numbers.
Dallas 101.1/pf 99.5/pa = 200.6 + Last 5 avg. 202.6 + season series avg 218.5 = 207.2
Phoenix 107.3/pf 105.8/pa = 213.1 +last 5 avg 226.4 + season series avg 218.5 = 219.3
207.2+219.3=426.5/2=213.25
I now check the trends in the series between the two teams to see what has historically been done (over/under) and use this number against the line to determine wether I should bet under or over. Any feedback would be welcomed. Kind of new to betting totals and I am just trying to find my way....Thanks for the help and Good Luck to All !!
0
I have been tinkering around with a formula that I have been using to determine O/U totals. I will tell you what I do and would just like some feedback as to wether I am off base here or maybe I have something of value to use in capping these totals.
I will use tonight Dallas/Phoenix game as an example:
First, I take dallas/phoenix points for and against totals for the year ( Dallas 101.1 for/99.5 against = 200.6; Phoenix 107.3/105.8 = 213.1 ) Then, I add up each teams last five game totals so that I can get a feel for what each team has been doing more recently. Next, I add up the two teams Season Series Totals to get an average of what they have done so far this season between the two. Finally I add the yearly totals + the last five game total average + the Season Series average to get a final average for each team. Take each teams final average and average out those final two numbers.
Dallas 101.1/pf 99.5/pa = 200.6 + Last 5 avg. 202.6 + season series avg 218.5 = 207.2
Phoenix 107.3/pf 105.8/pa = 213.1 +last 5 avg 226.4 + season series avg 218.5 = 219.3
207.2+219.3=426.5/2=213.25
I now check the trends in the series between the two teams to see what has historically been done (over/under) and use this number against the line to determine wether I should bet under or over. Any feedback would be welcomed. Kind of new to betting totals and I am just trying to find my way....Thanks for the help and Good Luck to All !!
Ax, I have been reading this thread and it is professional vs the others I have seen on here. You guys really share ideas without attacking one another. I cap locally but will start posting my threads and feedback to help other if needed.
Here are some key facts on LAC/CAVS
All games played at LA CLIPPERS since 1996
CLEVELAND is 7-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS since 1996
CLEVELAND is 6-5 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996
We talk, We decide, We Win!
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Ax, I have been reading this thread and it is professional vs the others I have seen on here. You guys really share ideas without attacking one another. I cap locally but will start posting my threads and feedback to help other if needed.
Here are some key facts on LAC/CAVS
All games played at LA CLIPPERS since 1996
CLEVELAND is 7-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS since 1996
CLEVELAND is 6-5 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996
I have been tinkering around with a formula that I have been using to determine O/U totals. I will tell you what I do and would just like some feedback as to wether I am off base here or maybe I have something of value to use in capping these totals.
I will use tonight Dallas/Phoenix game as an example:
First, I take dallas/phoenix points for and against totals for the year ( Dallas 101.1 for/99.5 against = 200.6; Phoenix 107.3/105.8 = 213.1 ) Then, I add up each teams last five game totals so that I can get a feel for what each team has been doing more recently. Next, I add up the two teams Season Series Totals to get an average of what they have done so far this season between the two. Finally I add the yearly totals + the last five game total average + the Season Series average to get a final average for each team. Take each teams final average and average out those final two numbers.
Dallas 101.1/pf 99.5/pa = 200.6 + Last 5 avg. 202.6 + season series avg 218.5 = 207.2
Phoenix 107.3/pf 105.8/pa = 213.1 +last 5 avg 226.4 + season series avg 218.5 = 219.3
207.2+219.3=426.5/2=213.25
I now check the trends in the series between the two teams to see what has historically been done (over/under) and use this number against the line to determine wether I should bet under or over. Any feedback would be welcomed. Kind of new to betting totals and I am just trying to find my way....Thanks for the help and Good Luck to All !!
have 217
CLE @ LAC -> no play for me
BOL Joe
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Quote Originally Posted by threesevens:
I have been tinkering around with a formula that I have been using to determine O/U totals. I will tell you what I do and would just like some feedback as to wether I am off base here or maybe I have something of value to use in capping these totals.
I will use tonight Dallas/Phoenix game as an example:
First, I take dallas/phoenix points for and against totals for the year ( Dallas 101.1 for/99.5 against = 200.6; Phoenix 107.3/105.8 = 213.1 ) Then, I add up each teams last five game totals so that I can get a feel for what each team has been doing more recently. Next, I add up the two teams Season Series Totals to get an average of what they have done so far this season between the two. Finally I add the yearly totals + the last five game total average + the Season Series average to get a final average for each team. Take each teams final average and average out those final two numbers.
Dallas 101.1/pf 99.5/pa = 200.6 + Last 5 avg. 202.6 + season series avg 218.5 = 207.2
Phoenix 107.3/pf 105.8/pa = 213.1 +last 5 avg 226.4 + season series avg 218.5 = 219.3
207.2+219.3=426.5/2=213.25
I now check the trends in the series between the two teams to see what has historically been done (over/under) and use this number against the line to determine wether I should bet under or over. Any feedback would be welcomed. Kind of new to betting totals and I am just trying to find my way....Thanks for the help and Good Luck to All !!
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