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NBA TUE 031009 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #176
I know there hasn't been much talk on this but NYK/MIL U222.5?

problems with this play points to recent scoring explosions and disappearing defenses but when these two get together (this season)...0-3 and the under covered by avg. 23.6 points...
 
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Posted: #177
ax... since todays board looks like a mess for under's.... what do you think about Shaq prop for over under 18.5?
 
I see the suns having a huge game... this SHOULD mean 18.5+ in my eyes....????
 
who on the Mavs can really stop him??
 
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Posted: #178
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

...I'm looking at Dallas and man, that team is a mess.  You know how you feel when you go to work and you hate your boss?  Yeah, you don't want to do crap.  These guys aint crazy about their boss and what better way to give him the one finger salute than to play like they've been playing.  Oh yeah, they beat the Wizards...hooray..yes they beat SAS at home but before that gave up 96 and lost to OKC.  I have a bad feeling about PHO scoring 130 on the Mavs tonight...

thoughts?


Ax -

Usually play sides and have a feeling that Phoenix will try and jump on the Mavericks early and keep going to maximize as much separation; the urgency in their case is reminiscent to me of their situation prior to their 48 beatdown of the Kings - don't expect it to sustain itself beyond this game, but winning handily will spell some degree of relief for a team desperate to cling onto its quickly dissipating playoff hopes.  Opened at - 6.5, now - 6 = maybe square $ on the Mavericks - looking at a double digit win for the Suns when it's all said and done.
 
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Posted: #179
im a rookie and learn a lot from you guys most of the time i just sit and read and dont say much just being a cyber sponge but with this cavs game isnt vegas saying the score will be 102 to 91? if that is the case this game (basing this on past games) will be a nail biter...i hope tomorrow offers a better card
 
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Posted: #180
Quote Originally Posted by ILOVE2BETCASH:

ax... since todays board looks like a mess for under's.... what do you think about Shaq prop for over under 18.5?
 
I see the suns having a huge game... this SHOULD mean 18.5+ in my eyes....????
 
who on the Mavs can really stop him??

Man, I wish I knew...Look up our man Mad_Skillz.  That's the props expert.  The play sounds good to me but I don't want to lead you down the wrong path cause I just don't know how to cap props.  Sorry man and GL.
 
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Posted: #181
But if it's a 120-105 deal, that's not so bad......
 
Line's moving down, 230 most places now.  I can see 120 from the suns, it's 110+ from the mavs I'm not feeling.  Not without Howard.
 
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Posted: #182
ax, got any solid plays yet or still working on the picks? :)
 
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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by Humbled2ManyTim:



Ax -

Usually play sides and have a feeling that Phoenix will try and jump on the Mavericks early and keep going to maximize as much separation; the urgency in their case is reminiscent to me of their situation prior to their 48 beatdown of the Kings - don't expect it to sustain itself beyond this game, but winning handily will spell some degree of relief for a team desperate to cling onto its quickly dissipating playoff hopes.  Opened at - 6.5, now - 6 = maybe square $ on the Mavericks - looking at a double digit win for the Suns when it's all said and done.

Yeah...I'm really seeing that too...I'm just not confident enough in my skills capping sides...I just don't understand this line @ -6?  I'm just going to stay away from this altogether..sides...totals...props   LOL...
 
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Posted: #184
Quote Originally Posted by dreadedrasta:

im a rookie and learn a lot from you guys most of the time i just sit and read and dont say much just being a cyber sponge but with this cavs game isnt vegas saying the score will be 102 to 91? if that is the case this game (basing this on past games) will be a nail biter...i hope tomorrow offers a better card

Excellent...that sounds exactly like what Vegas wants us to think...I'm thinking where in the 80's are the Clips going to land.  I see the Cavs maybe reaching the century mark but that's also a maybe IMHO.  The score in my head is 100-84...for what it's worth.

 
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Posted: #185
axp: so you haven't locked into anything so far? just wondering as i get ready to head out to school!
 
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Posted: #186
Made my play...I have to run and rip down a wall in the bedroom...

[562] TOTAL u195-110 
(CLEVELAND vrs LA CLIPPERS)

There were so many choices today but I'm playing just this one...BOLTA ...
 
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Posted: #187
Just adding a couple cents here, food for thought. A look at the total for the Mavs/Suns game... If you are looking to play unders, I would almost wait and watch the first half. It looks like these teams are trendy on the home/away stats for 1st half overs, 2nd half unders. The total for the first half (116.5) is only slightly higher that the total for the 2nd half (114).  One more note... Dallas totals are typically 11 points more when having 2 days rest or more vs. less than 2 days - combo of more offense and less defense. Dallas is on 2 days rest.

Home/Away...

 Dallas NBA
Average		 Phoenix
Offense Defense   Offense Defense
Points
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter 		97.0
25.8
24.6
23.0
23.3		 99.2
25.2
25.2
24.9
23.8		 99.7
25.0
25.0
24.5
24.6		 110.2
29.2
28.0
27.8
25.2		 104.7
25.6
27.5
25.9
25.7
















And now the last 5. 

Dallas NBA
Average		 Phoenix
Offense Defense   Offense Defense
Points
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter 		102.0
24.0
27.2
24.8
26.0		 100.6
25.6
25.2
24.4
25.4		 101.3
25.1
25.5
25.1
25.0		 111.2
28.0
26.8
28.6
27.8		 115.2
28.6
30.0
25.8
30.8

 
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Posted: #188
nice play.  where'd you wind up on the knicks, spurs and suns? over, over, under?
 
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Posted: #189
[Quote: Originally Posted by axpiota59] I know there hasn't been much talk on this but NYK/MIL U222.5?

problems with this play points to recent scoring explosions and disappearing defenses but when these two get together (this season)...0-3 and the under covered by avg. 23.6 points...
 
 
I like this play alot!   Locked this in earlier this afternoon.
 
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Posted: #190
Quote Originally Posted by mpnyc76:

nice play.  where'd you wind up on the knicks, spurs and suns? over, over, under?

NO PLAY but noted my picks for tracking as U,O,U
 
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Posted: #191
Ax, you're amzing brother!!
 
Here are some trends on S.A./Char
 
5 straight games in this matchup have gone under the number, including the first one this season which tallied just 170 points. Odds makers do not set lines this low when they are expecting the teams to conquer it because they are well aware of how much the public likes to bet the over. San Antonio is 14-4 UNDER against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 UNDER in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. a team with a losing SU record and 7-0-1 in Bobcats last 8 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Take the Under.
 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by Gambleholic:

Just adding a couple cents here, food for thought. A look at the total for the Mavs/Suns game... If you are looking to play unders, I would almost wait and watch the first half. It looks like these teams are trendy on the home/away stats for 1st half overs, 2nd half unders. The total for the first half (116.5) is only slightly higher that the total for the 2nd half (114).  One more note... Dallas totals are typically 11 points more when having 2 days rest or more vs. less than 2 days - combo of more offense and less defense. Dallas is on 2 days rest.



Thanks for this...Since I only have action on one game tonight, I may search for some value with 2H plays...not going to force anything but if it presents itself...I won't turn it down.
 
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Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by threesevens:

Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

I know there hasn't been much talk on this but NYK/MIL U222.5?

problems with this play points to recent scoring explosions and disappearing defenses but when these two get together (this season)...0-3 and the under covered by avg. 23.6 points...
 
 
I like this play alot!   Locked this in earlier this afternoon.

I wish you luck pal...I just couldn't pull the trigger on it...
 
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Posted: #194
Quote Originally Posted by Chooch77:

Ax, you're amzing brother!!
 
Here are some trends on S.A./Char
 
5 straight games in this matchup have gone under the number, including the first one this season which tallied just 170 points. Odds makers do not set lines this low when they are expecting the teams to conquer it because they are well aware of how much the public likes to bet the over. San Antonio is 14-4 UNDER against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 UNDER in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. a team with a losing SU record and 7-0-1 in Bobcats last 8 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Take the Under.

Thanks pal and great write-up Chooch.  Is this your POD?  damn...everybody is on everything today.  Love it.  I hope we all cash on all these games.  BOL my friend!
 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Thanks for this...Since I only have action on one game tonight, I may search for some value with 2H plays...not going to force anything but if it presents itself...I won't turn it down.


When capping a game, and end up not being able to squeeze the trigger, I often look for these situations for 2nd halves. If there is a ton of scoring in the first half, we might even get an inflated 2nd half total to go under.


 
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Posted: #196

nOOb question: why the general hate for the "over"?  Doesn't the "over" hit 50% of the time?

 
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Posted: #197
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

nOOb question: why the general hate for the "over"?  Doesn't the "over" hit 50% of the time?


excellent question..yes O/U is usually down the middle after all is said and done (50%-50%) but the books know the square play is the over so they take that into account when setting the number...the value is therefore in the under and finding that unders gem is what we do here...
 
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Posted: #198
Quote Originally Posted by composite:

nOOb question: why the general hate for the "over"?  Doesn't the "over" hit 50% of the time?



It's easier to just specialize in one type of play. Some argue there is more value to be found on unders as the public tends to bet overs. Ax's cup of tea is unders
 
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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

Made my play...I have to run and rip down a wall in the bedroom...

[562] TOTAL u195-110 
(CLEVELAND vrs LA CLIPPERS)

There were so many choices today but I'm playing just this one...BOLTA ...



i follow you in this one AX......
best of luck....

 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

Made my play...I have to run and rip down a wall in the bedroom...

[562] TOTAL u195-110 
(CLEVELAND vrs LA CLIPPERS)

There were so many choices today but I'm playing just this one...BOLTA ...

What's the points cushion for safety in this game? :)

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