Hi, I've been following your thread with interest and I wouldn't place too much importance to "public" data at Covers.Yes, this I understand. I know that most of the percentages on Covers are for the contests and things. The only info I like to use Covers for are trends, whether it be team trends, ref trends, etc.
You also have to consider that the public hits between 40 and 45% in the long run and if they are 1-9 in their last 10, this will also even out, thus taking the public side is the "correct" call or making it a no bet situation and just track what they do over the next 10 and position yourself after that. It's not that the public has gone 1-9 in their last 10 bets; above, I'm only comparing my plays, not every game. Going against the public when I'm able to find a significant difference in my calculated line and the actual line is looking to be profitable. The games I mentioned above that should have been bet against the public (nine total) are spread out over a week and a half. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
Quote Originally Posted by Gogic:
Hi, I've been following your thread with interest and I wouldn't place too much importance to "public" data at Covers.Yes, this I understand. I know that most of the percentages on Covers are for the contests and things. The only info I like to use Covers for are trends, whether it be team trends, ref trends, etc.
You also have to consider that the public hits between 40 and 45% in the long run and if they are 1-9 in their last 10, this will also even out, thus taking the public side is the "correct" call or making it a no bet situation and just track what they do over the next 10 and position yourself after that. It's not that the public has gone 1-9 in their last 10 bets; above, I'm only comparing my plays, not every game. Going against the public when I'm able to find a significant difference in my calculated line and the actual line is looking to be profitable. The games I mentioned above that should have been bet against the public (nine total) are spread out over a week and a half. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
Also, if you can get from your books the line on team totals? For example:
Open line was 206.5, and spread of 3, so expected team totals are
GS101.75/SAC104.75
Now line is 207 and spread of 2.5 which gives
GS102.25/SAC104.75
Look at what the lines on each team are for totals, and see if there is a trend that GS team total line went up.
For an over you need either both teams to get over their respective team totals or for one team to outscore other by enough to make up the difference. If you expect both to go over, then another green light for over.
if you expect GS not to and SAC to compensate for GSs' non performance then it might be better to look at spread play because line is so tight. and reverse, if you expect GS to cover their team total but SAC to fall short, would GS SU be a better play?
^ can you adjust your model for this arbitrage opportunity? not easy for sure.
LOL in the end I give vegas cappers a lot of credit for being near perfect pregame over long run.
These are all things that I like to look at, but I'm not disciplined enough to do so. This losing streak has given me a more realistic view on betting with my numbers, making me realize that it's not just as easy as pluggin in some data and spitting out winners (UNFORTUNATELY)!.
Quote Originally Posted by JBecks12:
Also, if you can get from your books the line on team totals? For example:
Open line was 206.5, and spread of 3, so expected team totals are
GS101.75/SAC104.75
Now line is 207 and spread of 2.5 which gives
GS102.25/SAC104.75
Look at what the lines on each team are for totals, and see if there is a trend that GS team total line went up.
For an over you need either both teams to get over their respective team totals or for one team to outscore other by enough to make up the difference. If you expect both to go over, then another green light for over.
if you expect GS not to and SAC to compensate for GSs' non performance then it might be better to look at spread play because line is so tight. and reverse, if you expect GS to cover their team total but SAC to fall short, would GS SU be a better play?
^ can you adjust your model for this arbitrage opportunity? not easy for sure.
LOL in the end I give vegas cappers a lot of credit for being near perfect pregame over long run.
These are all things that I like to look at, but I'm not disciplined enough to do so. This losing streak has given me a more realistic view on betting with my numbers, making me realize that it's not just as easy as pluggin in some data and spitting out winners (UNFORTUNATELY)!.
Happens to all of us when we hit the wall. Numbers and Feel/Trends/Sits combined give better plays than just numbers because vegas line setting gets better as the season rolls on. Start of the season numerical models dont work in the middle of the season without adjustment.
Happens to all of us when we hit the wall. Numbers and Feel/Trends/Sits combined give better plays than just numbers because vegas line setting gets better as the season rolls on. Start of the season numerical models dont work in the middle of the season without adjustment.
This will be a perfect game to see if my theory (spelled out over the course of 20-something posts prior to this one) will be successful. I'm showing a 6+ point variance between my line and the actual line, suggesting that something is off.
These teams have played twice this season, with each game being completely different than the other. The first time they played, Golden State won at home, 93-90 (total of 183). The second time around, Sacramento won at home, 114-106 (OT; total of 220). For each of these games, the total was set right around the same value (1st: 197.5; 2nd: 199.5). All of a sudden, for meeting number three, the total has shot up nearly 10 points from their first meeting. Why is this?
You've got two offenses in the top third of the league going up against two of the worst scoring defenses in the league. It has become clear over the last month or so that neither of these teams has much interest in playing any defense. Golden State seems to let teams play just as well as they could against a scout team. They are also the same way on offense, getting shut down by good defensive teams and scoring well against poor defenses.
Luckily for us, Sacramento is one of those "poor defenses," and that's putting it nicely. The Kings are giving up over 100 PPG at HOME. Their last three home games, they've given up 106 to Atlanta (who normally averages 91.2 PPG on the road), 97 to Dallas (average of 91.7) and 98 to New Orleans (average of 90.5). Golden State currently ranks 9th overall in PPG on the road with an average of 96.1 PPG. If Sacramento can make New Orleans a 100 point threat, imagine what Golden State should be able to do.
Golden State scored 97 at the LA Clippers the other night; the only reason they didn't get to 100 is because they let up on the gas pedal in the second half after entering the 4th quarter up 14 points. I don't know if Curry will be playing tonight, but even if he doesn't, all that does is open up more shots for Brandon Rush and Klay Thompson, who are both shooting greater than 46% of the three-point line.
I can't imagine either of these teams shutting the other down at any point in this game. For Vegas to set the total so much higher than the first two meetings tells me that they're expecting a high scoring game, too. The OVER is 5-2 in these two teams' last seven meetings and, more specifically, 4-1 when they meet in Sacramento.
FINAL PLAYS:
Sacramento vs. Golden State OVER 207.0 (2 units)
This will be a perfect game to see if my theory (spelled out over the course of 20-something posts prior to this one) will be successful. I'm showing a 6+ point variance between my line and the actual line, suggesting that something is off.
These teams have played twice this season, with each game being completely different than the other. The first time they played, Golden State won at home, 93-90 (total of 183). The second time around, Sacramento won at home, 114-106 (OT; total of 220). For each of these games, the total was set right around the same value (1st: 197.5; 2nd: 199.5). All of a sudden, for meeting number three, the total has shot up nearly 10 points from their first meeting. Why is this?
You've got two offenses in the top third of the league going up against two of the worst scoring defenses in the league. It has become clear over the last month or so that neither of these teams has much interest in playing any defense. Golden State seems to let teams play just as well as they could against a scout team. They are also the same way on offense, getting shut down by good defensive teams and scoring well against poor defenses.
Luckily for us, Sacramento is one of those "poor defenses," and that's putting it nicely. The Kings are giving up over 100 PPG at HOME. Their last three home games, they've given up 106 to Atlanta (who normally averages 91.2 PPG on the road), 97 to Dallas (average of 91.7) and 98 to New Orleans (average of 90.5). Golden State currently ranks 9th overall in PPG on the road with an average of 96.1 PPG. If Sacramento can make New Orleans a 100 point threat, imagine what Golden State should be able to do.
Golden State scored 97 at the LA Clippers the other night; the only reason they didn't get to 100 is because they let up on the gas pedal in the second half after entering the 4th quarter up 14 points. I don't know if Curry will be playing tonight, but even if he doesn't, all that does is open up more shots for Brandon Rush and Klay Thompson, who are both shooting greater than 46% of the three-point line.
I can't imagine either of these teams shutting the other down at any point in this game. For Vegas to set the total so much higher than the first two meetings tells me that they're expecting a high scoring game, too. The OVER is 5-2 in these two teams' last seven meetings and, more specifically, 4-1 when they meet in Sacramento.
a wealth of information in today's thread and thank you everyone for contributing. glad to see some serious cappers in today's thread.
thanks rlawson for you efforts. it's ppl like yourself and those that have commented today is what covers should be about. helping one another become profitable in the long run.
a lot has been said already so I'll just keep this short. some of what i want to say has been covered, but i'll add to it.
because of the lockout this season the UNDER has been money the first half of the season because odds makers were releasing lines based on mathematical formulas but this couldn't account for players lack of condition and performance based on the tightened schedule. Leading teams and players a tiny bit lost without enough practice to discuss game goals and objectives, therefore most games were just played for the sake of playing. Teams not running set plays for points and just a little lost on the court most of the time. When this happens a lot of the clock is chewed up...leading to unders.
HOWEVERsince the the break, the game totals have leveled off and the O/U is more even now, probably with moreOVERS than unders too.
If anything i've seen more overs now than unders since the break. I have noticed teams are not playing much defense lately. Unders have resulted because of poor shooting, not created by better D, but just plain poor offense.
All this is making it difficult to give any edge on the O/U.
a wealth of information in today's thread and thank you everyone for contributing. glad to see some serious cappers in today's thread.
thanks rlawson for you efforts. it's ppl like yourself and those that have commented today is what covers should be about. helping one another become profitable in the long run.
a lot has been said already so I'll just keep this short. some of what i want to say has been covered, but i'll add to it.
because of the lockout this season the UNDER has been money the first half of the season because odds makers were releasing lines based on mathematical formulas but this couldn't account for players lack of condition and performance based on the tightened schedule. Leading teams and players a tiny bit lost without enough practice to discuss game goals and objectives, therefore most games were just played for the sake of playing. Teams not running set plays for points and just a little lost on the court most of the time. When this happens a lot of the clock is chewed up...leading to unders.
HOWEVERsince the the break, the game totals have leveled off and the O/U is more even now, probably with moreOVERS than unders too.
If anything i've seen more overs now than unders since the break. I have noticed teams are not playing much defense lately. Unders have resulted because of poor shooting, not created by better D, but just plain poor offense.
All this is making it difficult to give any edge on the O/U.
UNLESS Your paying $200 a month we dont get real time percentages they are all delayed about 30 min AND we dont get th epercentages of the money being placed but rather the number of bets.... Number of bets is sometimes the same indicator as how much money but not always.....
IF this is truly how you bet your games then in order for u to get as close as yo ucan to REALISTIC betting percentage number you have to wait near game time bc those percentages change quickly in a couple hours!!
I use scoresandodds.com over the years and THAT site is as legit of a site as ive seen..no consensus bullshit just a count of where the moneys coming in...... IF you want to pay $200 a month and get realtime and amount of money go to sportsinsights.com They are MOST legit and helpful
UNLESS Your paying $200 a month we dont get real time percentages they are all delayed about 30 min AND we dont get th epercentages of the money being placed but rather the number of bets.... Number of bets is sometimes the same indicator as how much money but not always.....
IF this is truly how you bet your games then in order for u to get as close as yo ucan to REALISTIC betting percentage number you have to wait near game time bc those percentages change quickly in a couple hours!!
I use scoresandodds.com over the years and THAT site is as legit of a site as ive seen..no consensus bullshit just a count of where the moneys coming in...... IF you want to pay $200 a month and get realtime and amount of money go to sportsinsights.com They are MOST legit and helpful
You have been perfectly clear, I probably wasn't. I've been making a killing this season but went 3-11 over the last week and that was enough for me to call a time out. I think you have to give the "new" model some time, a few days just isn't enough, especially in an over heavy environment. Also take into account the books have ajusted their numbers too. I would suggest cutting your bet size in half for the rest of March and keep following the new numbers, instead of making decisions on skewed public numbers. Good luck, I'll continue following with interest.
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
You have been perfectly clear, I probably wasn't. I've been making a killing this season but went 3-11 over the last week and that was enough for me to call a time out. I think you have to give the "new" model some time, a few days just isn't enough, especially in an over heavy environment. Also take into account the books have ajusted their numbers too. I would suggest cutting your bet size in half for the rest of March and keep following the new numbers, instead of making decisions on skewed public numbers. Good luck, I'll continue following with interest.
This feels like yesterdays thread all over again. Be careful with adjusting your system. Don't think you'll have to change something tomorrow if your plays tonight lose again.
HOWEVER, I have to applaud you if you can include public betting percentages in your system because they helped my system a great deal as soon as I included them correctly. It's pretty hard to figure out how to include them: look at different website since they all have slightly different public percentages. Also the numbers you are using to decide whether the public is on one side (in your case right now 60%) is a number you'll probably have to change a few times throughout the season and definetly over different sports.
I'm 14-6 (70%) +2.51 units over the last 4 days so my system is working right now but it also picked a lot of games your system also picked like yesterdays CHA/NOH Over. What I'm saying is that maybe your system isn't that wrong but just on a losing streak.
To summarize, I think the change to your system is a good one and I support it. I'm not even betting your picks but I'd hate to see you overadjust your system because of a losing streak - I'm guilty of doing that way too many times in the past.
This feels like yesterdays thread all over again. Be careful with adjusting your system. Don't think you'll have to change something tomorrow if your plays tonight lose again.
HOWEVER, I have to applaud you if you can include public betting percentages in your system because they helped my system a great deal as soon as I included them correctly. It's pretty hard to figure out how to include them: look at different website since they all have slightly different public percentages. Also the numbers you are using to decide whether the public is on one side (in your case right now 60%) is a number you'll probably have to change a few times throughout the season and definetly over different sports.
I'm 14-6 (70%) +2.51 units over the last 4 days so my system is working right now but it also picked a lot of games your system also picked like yesterdays CHA/NOH Over. What I'm saying is that maybe your system isn't that wrong but just on a losing streak.
To summarize, I think the change to your system is a good one and I support it. I'm not even betting your picks but I'd hate to see you overadjust your system because of a losing streak - I'm guilty of doing that way too many times in the past.
This feels like yesterdays thread all over again. Be careful with adjusting your system. Don't think you'll have to change something tomorrow if your plays tonight lose again.
HOWEVER, I have to applaud you if you can include public betting percentages in your system because they helped my system a great deal as soon as I included them correctly. It's pretty hard to figure out how to include them: look at different website since they all have slightly different public percentages. Also the numbers you are using to decide whether the public is on one side (in your case right now 60%) is a number you'll probably have to change a few times throughout the season and definetly over different sports.
I'm 14-6 (70%) +2.51 units over the last 4 days so my system is working right now but it also picked a lot of games your system also picked like yesterdays CHA/NOH Over. What I'm saying is that maybe your system isn't that wrong but just on a losing streak.
To summarize, I think the change to your system is a good one and I support it. I'm not even betting your picks but I'd hate to see you overadjust your system because of a losing streak - I'm guilty of doing that way too many times in the past.
Thanks for the message - I am on your side, trust me. I don't want to alter this too much. When I started including recent scoring data from teams a couple of days ago, it didn't give me any NEW plays, it either (a) strengthened a play that would have been there with the "old" way or (b) made a small-play turn to a no-play. All I'm suggesting today is that the large variance I'm calculating may not be there to show me WHICH way to go, but instead that there is something wrong with the line that was put out and a way to take advatange of it.
Quote Originally Posted by TotalsTown:
This feels like yesterdays thread all over again. Be careful with adjusting your system. Don't think you'll have to change something tomorrow if your plays tonight lose again.
HOWEVER, I have to applaud you if you can include public betting percentages in your system because they helped my system a great deal as soon as I included them correctly. It's pretty hard to figure out how to include them: look at different website since they all have slightly different public percentages. Also the numbers you are using to decide whether the public is on one side (in your case right now 60%) is a number you'll probably have to change a few times throughout the season and definetly over different sports.
I'm 14-6 (70%) +2.51 units over the last 4 days so my system is working right now but it also picked a lot of games your system also picked like yesterdays CHA/NOH Over. What I'm saying is that maybe your system isn't that wrong but just on a losing streak.
To summarize, I think the change to your system is a good one and I support it. I'm not even betting your picks but I'd hate to see you overadjust your system because of a losing streak - I'm guilty of doing that way too many times in the past.
Thanks for the message - I am on your side, trust me. I don't want to alter this too much. When I started including recent scoring data from teams a couple of days ago, it didn't give me any NEW plays, it either (a) strengthened a play that would have been there with the "old" way or (b) made a small-play turn to a no-play. All I'm suggesting today is that the large variance I'm calculating may not be there to show me WHICH way to go, but instead that there is something wrong with the line that was put out and a way to take advatange of it.
You have been perfectly clear, I probably wasn't. I've been making a killing this season but went 3-11 over the last week and that was enough for me to call a time out. I think you have to give the "new" model some time, a few days just isn't enough, especially in an over heavy environment. Also take into account the books have ajusted their numbers too. I would suggest cutting your bet size in half for the rest of March and keep following the new numbers, instead of making decisions on skewed public numbers. Good luck, I'll continue following with interest.
I am using the public betting percentages as a reasoning to my new outlook on the numbers I'm calculating. I didn't mean for it so sound that it's the end-all, be-all. What I'm seeing, though, is that the variance I'm calculating may be a signal for more research to be done, not a method of punching in numbers and spitting out winners. For example, with the SAC/GS game tonight, using the new methodology, I'm showing a large variance but instead of just relying on the DIRECTION of that variance to tell me where to bet, I've used that signal to look further into the game to try and discover WHY such a variance exists.
Quote Originally Posted by Gogic:
You have been perfectly clear, I probably wasn't. I've been making a killing this season but went 3-11 over the last week and that was enough for me to call a time out. I think you have to give the "new" model some time, a few days just isn't enough, especially in an over heavy environment. Also take into account the books have ajusted their numbers too. I would suggest cutting your bet size in half for the rest of March and keep following the new numbers, instead of making decisions on skewed public numbers. Good luck, I'll continue following with interest.
I am using the public betting percentages as a reasoning to my new outlook on the numbers I'm calculating. I didn't mean for it so sound that it's the end-all, be-all. What I'm seeing, though, is that the variance I'm calculating may be a signal for more research to be done, not a method of punching in numbers and spitting out winners. For example, with the SAC/GS game tonight, using the new methodology, I'm showing a large variance but instead of just relying on the DIRECTION of that variance to tell me where to bet, I've used that signal to look further into the game to try and discover WHY such a variance exists.
UNLESS Your paying $200 a month we dont get real time percentages they are all delayed about 30 min AND we dont get th epercentages of the money being placed but rather the number of bets.... Number of bets is sometimes the same indicator as how much money but not always.....
IF this is truly how you bet your games then in order for u to get as close as yo ucan to REALISTIC betting percentage number you have to wait near game time bc those percentages change quickly in a couple hours!!
I use scoresandodds.com over the years and THAT site is as legit of a site as ive seen..no consensus bullshit just a count of where the moneys coming in...... IF you want to pay $200 a month and get realtime and amount of money go to sportsinsights.com They are MOST legit and helpful
Thanks for the recommendations, I will check them out. I responded to a couple of other people, but I'm planning on using public betting percentages to be a platform to my research when I see a large variance. I hope that makes sense... any time I answer a couple of questions in a row, I feel like I'm talking in circles because I confuse myself.
Quote Originally Posted by Marmix22:
UNLESS Your paying $200 a month we dont get real time percentages they are all delayed about 30 min AND we dont get th epercentages of the money being placed but rather the number of bets.... Number of bets is sometimes the same indicator as how much money but not always.....
IF this is truly how you bet your games then in order for u to get as close as yo ucan to REALISTIC betting percentage number you have to wait near game time bc those percentages change quickly in a couple hours!!
I use scoresandodds.com over the years and THAT site is as legit of a site as ive seen..no consensus bullshit just a count of where the moneys coming in...... IF you want to pay $200 a month and get realtime and amount of money go to sportsinsights.com They are MOST legit and helpful
Thanks for the recommendations, I will check them out. I responded to a couple of other people, but I'm planning on using public betting percentages to be a platform to my research when I see a large variance. I hope that makes sense... any time I answer a couple of questions in a row, I feel like I'm talking in circles because I confuse myself.
Thanks for the recommendations, I will check them out. I responded to a couple of other people, but I'm planning on using public betting percentages to be a platform to my research when I see a large variance. I hope that makes sense... any time I answer a couple of questions in a row, I feel like I'm talking in circles because I confuse myself.
GL man! Thats what i use as well and that was my only indicator for some time and its a good system and then when ulose on some of them u look back and learn from mistakes good work man!
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
Thanks for the recommendations, I will check them out. I responded to a couple of other people, but I'm planning on using public betting percentages to be a platform to my research when I see a large variance. I hope that makes sense... any time I answer a couple of questions in a row, I feel like I'm talking in circles because I confuse myself.
GL man! Thats what i use as well and that was my only indicator for some time and its a good system and then when ulose on some of them u look back and learn from mistakes good work man!
Man, alot to read. This game looks tough to call, I can see it going either way. Espeically with how the first 2 games have played out, but I'll ride with you tonite. OVER it is!
Man, alot to read. This game looks tough to call, I can see it going either way. Espeically with how the first 2 games have played out, but I'll ride with you tonite. OVER it is!
rlawson, The best way I've been able to analyze my bets lately is by checking to see which side of my plays the public is on VI or scoresandodds. The higher the percentage on the opposite side the better I feel about the play, and those plays have actually won more. If I see the public heavy on my side (70% or more, sometimes 60%) I just don't play it. Sometimes my play would've won but more times than not it loses. I also look at RLM and again sometimes those plays lose but usually win more often. Just a thought...if your plays are heavy with public money, you may want to not bet it or if you must bet it, take the opposite side and I'd "bet" you come out ahead. Hope this helps.
rlawson, The best way I've been able to analyze my bets lately is by checking to see which side of my plays the public is on VI or scoresandodds. The higher the percentage on the opposite side the better I feel about the play, and those plays have actually won more. If I see the public heavy on my side (70% or more, sometimes 60%) I just don't play it. Sometimes my play would've won but more times than not it loses. I also look at RLM and again sometimes those plays lose but usually win more often. Just a thought...if your plays are heavy with public money, you may want to not bet it or if you must bet it, take the opposite side and I'd "bet" you come out ahead. Hope this helps.
ugh..here we go with the line movement again just like the clipp game last night ..line moves down and the game goes under. very weird, im also on the over on gs/sac as i was in the lac/bos last night, the movement not a good sign though, hopefully it goes back up before tip!
ugh..here we go with the line movement again just like the clipp game last night ..line moves down and the game goes under. very weird, im also on the over on gs/sac as i was in the lac/bos last night, the movement not a good sign though, hopefully it goes back up before tip!
I didn't read every post to detail. But here is what I got. If you have a play (6.0 difference from your line). And the public is 60% it more on one of the lines. You should bet the other way. Is that correct? If so heres my input
I believe you should also consider if the public is betting with you. Or against your predicted line. (i.e, if you predicted is 7 under the line, is the public betting the under or the over Since if you only consider that the public is wrong. From that mentality. Every game that has a diff of say 2 or less from your predicted and actual line warrants that the public is right and that those should be play. That is the only way it would work if you are now saying that the variance is now disclosing if the line is right or wrong instead of how far it should be. Lemme know if that makes sense
I didn't read every post to detail. But here is what I got. If you have a play (6.0 difference from your line). And the public is 60% it more on one of the lines. You should bet the other way. Is that correct? If so heres my input
I believe you should also consider if the public is betting with you. Or against your predicted line. (i.e, if you predicted is 7 under the line, is the public betting the under or the over Since if you only consider that the public is wrong. From that mentality. Every game that has a diff of say 2 or less from your predicted and actual line warrants that the public is right and that those should be play. That is the only way it would work if you are now saying that the variance is now disclosing if the line is right or wrong instead of how far it should be. Lemme know if that makes sense
Big drop on the under, line back to 206, a couple of sites showing 60% on the over this will probably go down now.
I wish there was a reliable site to see betting numbers. I understand you can pay for services, but those are still only being based off of one or two places. The numbers I used in my analysis earlier all came from one place (VI.com) so I'm going to continue to reference their numbers. Wherever they're coming from, it seems to have provided some solid backing for my picks so far. As of right now, they're still showing 207.0 with a 43/57 split.
Quote Originally Posted by Gogic:
Big drop on the under, line back to 206, a couple of sites showing 60% on the over this will probably go down now.
I wish there was a reliable site to see betting numbers. I understand you can pay for services, but those are still only being based off of one or two places. The numbers I used in my analysis earlier all came from one place (VI.com) so I'm going to continue to reference their numbers. Wherever they're coming from, it seems to have provided some solid backing for my picks so far. As of right now, they're still showing 207.0 with a 43/57 split.
IF this is truly how you bet your games then in order for u to get as close as yo ucan to REALISTIC betting percentage number you have to wait near game time bc those percentages change quickly in a couple hours!!
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