I'm going to start today's thread with something different. I went back the past 10 days, covering my last 22 plays, to see if I could find any useful trends. Take a look at the following data, followed by the percentage of the betting public on my side, and tell me if you see anything:
3-12-12: LAC/Boston OVER - L (65%) Charlotte/New Orleans OVER - L (66%)
3-11-12: NYK/Philadelphia UNDER - L (43%) LAL/Boston OVER - W (57%) Toronto/Milwaukee UNDER - L (61%)
3-10-12: Miami/Indiana UNDER - W (38%) Washington/Portland UNDER - L (48%)
3-9-12: Milwaukee/NYK UNDER - L (72%)
3-8-12: Phoenix/Dallas UNDER - W (35%)
3-7-12: Milwaukee/Chicago UNDER - L (89%) OKC/Phoenix UNDER - L (52%) San Antonio/NYK UNDER - L (72%)
3-6-12: Dallas/NYK UNDER - W (couldn't find information for this game; not included in final tally)
3-5-12: Chicago/Indiana UNDER - W (56%) Sacramento/Denver UNDER - L (61%) OKC/Dallas UNDER - W (28%)
3-4-12: Phoenix/Sacramento UNDER - W (39%) San Antonio/Denver UNDER - W (40%)
3-2-12: Sacramento/LAL OVER - W (56%) San Antonio/Charlotte UNDER - W (85%) Philadelphia/GS UNDER - W (54%) Boston/New Jersey UNDER - L (86%)
I'm going to start today's thread with something different. I went back the past 10 days, covering my last 22 plays, to see if I could find any useful trends. Take a look at the following data, followed by the percentage of the betting public on my side, and tell me if you see anything:
3-12-12: LAC/Boston OVER - L (65%) Charlotte/New Orleans OVER - L (66%)
3-11-12: NYK/Philadelphia UNDER - L (43%) LAL/Boston OVER - W (57%) Toronto/Milwaukee UNDER - L (61%)
3-10-12: Miami/Indiana UNDER - W (38%) Washington/Portland UNDER - L (48%)
3-9-12: Milwaukee/NYK UNDER - L (72%)
3-8-12: Phoenix/Dallas UNDER - W (35%)
3-7-12: Milwaukee/Chicago UNDER - L (89%) OKC/Phoenix UNDER - L (52%) San Antonio/NYK UNDER - L (72%)
3-6-12: Dallas/NYK UNDER - W (couldn't find information for this game; not included in final tally)
3-5-12: Chicago/Indiana UNDER - W (56%) Sacramento/Denver UNDER - L (61%) OKC/Dallas UNDER - W (28%)
3-4-12: Phoenix/Sacramento UNDER - W (39%) San Antonio/Denver UNDER - W (40%)
3-2-12: Sacramento/LAL OVER - W (56%) San Antonio/Charlotte UNDER - W (85%) Philadelphia/GS UNDER - W (54%) Boston/New Jersey UNDER - L (86%)
For those like me who are thinking "I wish he'd just tell us," here you are:
It appears that I've been using the variance to decide which side I play on, whether it's the over or the under, when in reality, all the variance is telling me is that there's something fishy with the line.
When a game's posted total is 6 points or more different than mine, it's considered a play. If my line is 6 points greater than the posted line, then I have, by default, considered it an OVER play and vice versa.
To think that I've created some mathematical equation that can "beat Vegas," is silly. I may, however, have found a way to use my numbers and what's happening in Vegas to pick some winners.
Over these 10 days of plays, when the variance I've had sides with a public bet of 60% or greater, those plays are 1-8. When I play a side with my variance and 59% or LESS of public bets, those plays are 9-3. What I'm saying is this: the variance is telling me that something may be wrong with the line. If I look at how the public is playing the bet, I can get a reasonable estimation that (a) the line is high/low for a reason or (b) that my variance is on the right side because it's against the public.
To summarize, if I've got a game considered a play (six points or greater variance), I should be comparing it to public bets. If the public is 60% on either the OVER or the UNDER, I should play OPPOSITE that side. If a play of mine with said variance doesn't have a large division of public bets, I should side with the side my variance is on.
Does this make sense? Or am I reaching?
For those like me who are thinking "I wish he'd just tell us," here you are:
It appears that I've been using the variance to decide which side I play on, whether it's the over or the under, when in reality, all the variance is telling me is that there's something fishy with the line.
When a game's posted total is 6 points or more different than mine, it's considered a play. If my line is 6 points greater than the posted line, then I have, by default, considered it an OVER play and vice versa.
To think that I've created some mathematical equation that can "beat Vegas," is silly. I may, however, have found a way to use my numbers and what's happening in Vegas to pick some winners.
Over these 10 days of plays, when the variance I've had sides with a public bet of 60% or greater, those plays are 1-8. When I play a side with my variance and 59% or LESS of public bets, those plays are 9-3. What I'm saying is this: the variance is telling me that something may be wrong with the line. If I look at how the public is playing the bet, I can get a reasonable estimation that (a) the line is high/low for a reason or (b) that my variance is on the right side because it's against the public.
To summarize, if I've got a game considered a play (six points or greater variance), I should be comparing it to public bets. If the public is 60% on either the OVER or the UNDER, I should play OPPOSITE that side. If a play of mine with said variance doesn't have a large division of public bets, I should side with the side my variance is on.
I get it, you proved that the line is always fishy on public plays but thinking otherwise because it's in your system and nothing fishy can happen. Nice observational skills man.
So, what are you seeing in your lines tonight? BOL man
I get it, you proved that the line is always fishy on public plays but thinking otherwise because it's in your system and nothing fishy can happen. Nice observational skills man.
So, what are you seeing in your lines tonight? BOL man
I've always known that, but I think I had thought my system was "smarter" than that and didn't pay attention. It appears after looking at some of this data that if I'm able to come up with a play using my numbers and look at how the public is betting, I can get a better read on WHY there is a variance, not just that there IS one.
Quote Originally Posted by thebestpicks:
public plays always loseeee
I've always known that, but I think I had thought my system was "smarter" than that and didn't pay attention. It appears after looking at some of this data that if I'm able to come up with a play using my numbers and look at how the public is betting, I can get a better read on WHY there is a variance, not just that there IS one.
Using my logic (or lack thereof) from above, we would first notice that SAC/GS is a candidate for play; the variance shown above is 6.5 from the actual line. The public (according to V.Insider) is betting 74/26 in favor of the OVER. With all of that information, the play right here would be UNDER because (1) we have a variance that warrants action and (2) because there is greater than a 60/40 split, we bet the opposite of the public. I also see that the line is up to 207.0 in some places right now. Thoughts?
Today's Lines / Mine (Actual):
Orlando vs. Miami - 187.8 (190.0)
Cleveland vs. Toronto - 196.5 (194.0)
Indiana vs. Portland - 192.4 (190.0)
Memphis vs. LA Lakers - 192.4 (NL)
Oklahoma City vs. Houston - 205.7 (204.5)
Dallas vs. Washington - 198.3 (198.5)
Denver vs. Atlanta - 190.6 (195.5)
Sacramento vs. Golden State - 200.0 (206.5)
Using my logic (or lack thereof) from above, we would first notice that SAC/GS is a candidate for play; the variance shown above is 6.5 from the actual line. The public (according to V.Insider) is betting 74/26 in favor of the OVER. With all of that information, the play right here would be UNDER because (1) we have a variance that warrants action and (2) because there is greater than a 60/40 split, we bet the opposite of the public. I also see that the line is up to 207.0 in some places right now. Thoughts?
Sounds good. I agree its a public play i'm leaning over myself. Let's try this by betting a small play
In this instance, I don't know that it would warrant a smaller play that normal. In the information outlined above, it says that if my variance SIDES with the public, that it's profitable to go opposite. In this case, my variance is AGAINST a 74% public bet, so I will most likely be playing 2 units as normal. Because the public is on the over and the line has already moved up one-half point, I'm going to see if I can get it any higher.
Quote Originally Posted by Saekopsycho:
Sounds good. I agree its a public play i'm leaning over myself. Let's try this by betting a small play
In this instance, I don't know that it would warrant a smaller play that normal. In the information outlined above, it says that if my variance SIDES with the public, that it's profitable to go opposite. In this case, my variance is AGAINST a 74% public bet, so I will most likely be playing 2 units as normal. Because the public is on the over and the line has already moved up one-half point, I'm going to see if I can get it any higher.
bud if you are looking at v.insider for betting trends, that 74/26 number is from mia/orl game.
gs/sac trend is only 53/47 trending over but definitely not a overwhelming trend to support your variance play. Specially if its closer to 50% than 60%.
bud if you are looking at v.insider for betting trends, that 74/26 number is from mia/orl game.
gs/sac trend is only 53/47 trending over but definitely not a overwhelming trend to support your variance play. Specially if its closer to 50% than 60%.
I am a CPA and math professor at a local college, I haven't followed the NBA that closely, although I have been following your system for these past few weeks. I will tell that over the past 5 or 6 seasons in the NFL if you followed the 70-70 rule, you would have been very successful, although this past year, it was not quite as good, I believe mainly because of the lockout and more favorites than usual covering. This rule is when 70% of the public is on one side, 70% of the time they are wrong. To win at gambling, you must be a creative thinker and not blindly follow the crowd. If you keep tinkering with your system, hopefully you will get it right. You must remember that Vegas linemakers also catch up with trends you find, so you need to stay a little ahead of them and also at times anticipate which side the public will be on. Keep up the good work - you're getting there!
I am a CPA and math professor at a local college, I haven't followed the NBA that closely, although I have been following your system for these past few weeks. I will tell that over the past 5 or 6 seasons in the NFL if you followed the 70-70 rule, you would have been very successful, although this past year, it was not quite as good, I believe mainly because of the lockout and more favorites than usual covering. This rule is when 70% of the public is on one side, 70% of the time they are wrong. To win at gambling, you must be a creative thinker and not blindly follow the crowd. If you keep tinkering with your system, hopefully you will get it right. You must remember that Vegas linemakers also catch up with trends you find, so you need to stay a little ahead of them and also at times anticipate which side the public will be on. Keep up the good work - you're getting there!
bud if you are looking at v.insider for betting trends, that 74/26 number is from mia/orl game.
gs/sac trend is only 53/47 trending over but definitely not a overwhelming trend to support your variance play. Specially if its closer to 50% than 60%.
I'm showing the above information, last column being the O/U. This is from the home page. Am I looking in the wrong place?
Quote Originally Posted by JBecks12:
bud if you are looking at v.insider for betting trends, that 74/26 number is from mia/orl game.
gs/sac trend is only 53/47 trending over but definitely not a overwhelming trend to support your variance play. Specially if its closer to 50% than 60%.
I am a CPA and math professor at a local college, I haven't followed the NBA that closely, although I have been following your system for these past few weeks. I will tell that over the past 5 or 6 seasons in the NFL if you followed the 70-70 rule, you would have been very successful, although this past year, it was not quite as good, I believe mainly because of the lockout and more favorites than usual covering. This rule is when 70% of the public is on one side, 70% of the time they are wrong. To win at gambling, you must be a creative thinker and not blindly follow the crowd. If you keep tinkering with your system, hopefully you will get it right. You must remember that Vegas linemakers also catch up with trends you find, so you need to stay a little ahead of them and also at times anticipate which side the public will be on. Keep up the good work - you're getting there!
Thanks for the advice. I think working with the public bets will work because, as you've hinted at, Vegas didn't get so big and shiney by having the public win. My sample size is small, but it's all I have to work with. I was right at 60% through 75 games and I think that's a pretty good sign. As you've said, I need to continue to progress the system throughout the year because the lines and their accuracy/meaning progress as well. Hopefully the detail I outlined above will keep me in the black on the home stretch of the regular season.
Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:
I am a CPA and math professor at a local college, I haven't followed the NBA that closely, although I have been following your system for these past few weeks. I will tell that over the past 5 or 6 seasons in the NFL if you followed the 70-70 rule, you would have been very successful, although this past year, it was not quite as good, I believe mainly because of the lockout and more favorites than usual covering. This rule is when 70% of the public is on one side, 70% of the time they are wrong. To win at gambling, you must be a creative thinker and not blindly follow the crowd. If you keep tinkering with your system, hopefully you will get it right. You must remember that Vegas linemakers also catch up with trends you find, so you need to stay a little ahead of them and also at times anticipate which side the public will be on. Keep up the good work - you're getting there!
Thanks for the advice. I think working with the public bets will work because, as you've hinted at, Vegas didn't get so big and shiney by having the public win. My sample size is small, but it's all I have to work with. I was right at 60% through 75 games and I think that's a pretty good sign. As you've said, I need to continue to progress the system throughout the year because the lines and their accuracy/meaning progress as well. Hopefully the detail I outlined above will keep me in the black on the home stretch of the regular season.
CORRECTION (thanks JBecks) - the split on the O/U for the GS/SAC game is 53/47 in favor of the over (I found out where I was looking and should have been looking). That's OK though - based on the data that I collected above, playing WITH the side of my variance when the public isn't 60+% on either side is 9-3 over those ten days. When the public isn't heavy on either side, the correct play has been to follow the side of the variance.
CORRECTION (thanks JBecks) - the split on the O/U for the GS/SAC game is 53/47 in favor of the over (I found out where I was looking and should have been looking). That's OK though - based on the data that I collected above, playing WITH the side of my variance when the public isn't 60+% on either side is 9-3 over those ten days. When the public isn't heavy on either side, the correct play has been to follow the side of the variance.
Shouldn't we consider OT option in SAC-GSW game that may lead to over 206 as it was on Feb4 when score went to 220 with 199.5 Odd?
I believe public is following this thinking.
any news on Curry, will he play?
Overtime was needed between these teams the last time they played and that, as you said, resulted in a total of 220 points. They did, however, also play for the first time this season a week before that (January 31st) and ended at a 93-90 Golden State victory (183 total points).
Quote Originally Posted by upeter_29:
Shouldn't we consider OT option in SAC-GSW game that may lead to over 206 as it was on Feb4 when score went to 220 with 199.5 Odd?
I believe public is following this thinking.
any news on Curry, will he play?
Overtime was needed between these teams the last time they played and that, as you said, resulted in a total of 220 points. They did, however, also play for the first time this season a week before that (January 31st) and ended at a 93-90 Golden State victory (183 total points).
CORRECTION (thanks JBecks) - the split on the O/U for the GS/SAC game is 53/47 in favor of the over (I found out where I was looking and should have been looking). That's OK though - based on the data that I collected above, playing WITH the side of my variance when the public isn't 60+% on either side is 9-3 over those ten days. When the public isn't heavy on either side, the correct play has been to follow the side of the variance.
OK. just wanted to make sure you and I are looking at the same info.
Follow above link to also view how/when the trend is going. Firstly I don't know that unless one has an insider sportsbook contact that any of this info is valid or timely correct. Secondly, I am not sure "square" money comes in this early, since its a workday and not weekend. Lastly, check here to see if this is any different https://www.wagertracker.com/ under the public money tab.
Hope you understand, I am not trying to down your play, just trying to help with info to strengthen the accuracy.
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
CORRECTION (thanks JBecks) - the split on the O/U for the GS/SAC game is 53/47 in favor of the over (I found out where I was looking and should have been looking). That's OK though - based on the data that I collected above, playing WITH the side of my variance when the public isn't 60+% on either side is 9-3 over those ten days. When the public isn't heavy on either side, the correct play has been to follow the side of the variance.
OK. just wanted to make sure you and I are looking at the same info.
Follow above link to also view how/when the trend is going. Firstly I don't know that unless one has an insider sportsbook contact that any of this info is valid or timely correct. Secondly, I am not sure "square" money comes in this early, since its a workday and not weekend. Lastly, check here to see if this is any different https://www.wagertracker.com/ under the public money tab.
Hope you understand, I am not trying to down your play, just trying to help with info to strengthen the accuracy.
JB - thanks for all of the info. These are definitly items that I will use for my picks, starting today. I am always open to suggestions; if you come across anything else that you think might help, please pass it along.
JB - thanks for all of the info. These are definitly items that I will use for my picks, starting today. I am always open to suggestions; if you come across anything else that you think might help, please pass it along.
Yesterday https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101294835 I looked at the trends and bet against your models' over call, and got 1H and FG under right. Which your model would have shown correctly based on public money info. So we are getting better everyday.
Yesterday https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101294835 I looked at the trends and bet against your models' over call, and got 1H and FG under right. Which your model would have shown correctly based on public money info. So we are getting better everyday.
I definitely need to utilize the resources on Covers to my advantage. I look at thoes trends and it would suggest that an OVER play might be the way to go tonight. Then, when checking on VI, it appears the percentages have moved to a 42/58 split which would favor an OVER play for me as well.
I definitely need to utilize the resources on Covers to my advantage. I look at thoes trends and it would suggest that an OVER play might be the way to go tonight. Then, when checking on VI, it appears the percentages have moved to a 42/58 split which would favor an OVER play for me as well.
Thats why, if you base your call on one "constantly moving" item (money trend), it will be a tough road. Look at 4-5 factors including your model and see how many green lights pop up.
Another example: Look at GS/SAC ML and SU betting trend, all going to GS heavy.
That makes me question the betting trend shown at VI, because line movement we can confirm from 10 different sources. So if heavy money was really tilting so much on GS, vegas would have moved the line to counter. It may be too early for heavy smart money to get in here and or VI betting trend this early in the day is not good indicator public money or heavy smart money.
Thats why, if you base your call on one "constantly moving" item (money trend), it will be a tough road. Look at 4-5 factors including your model and see how many green lights pop up.
Another example: Look at GS/SAC ML and SU betting trend, all going to GS heavy.
That makes me question the betting trend shown at VI, because line movement we can confirm from 10 different sources. So if heavy money was really tilting so much on GS, vegas would have moved the line to counter. It may be too early for heavy smart money to get in here and or VI betting trend this early in the day is not good indicator public money or heavy smart money.
I definitely need to utilize the resources on Covers to my advantage. I look at thoes trends and it would suggest that an OVER play might be the way to go tonight. Then, when checking on VI, it appears the percentages have moved to a 42/58 split which would favor an OVER play for me as well.
Hi, I've been following your thread with interest and I wouldn't place too much importance to "public" data at Covers. This is derived from the picks made in the competition and has nothing to do with betting itself. If there's something to find there, it's the divergence between the "public" and "team experts". Although I never backtested this, logic dictates that if they are on different sides of the potential bet it's a situation where one should fade the "public".
Concerning VI, as far as I know they don't post the data from any book either, but I might be wrong there.
You also have to consider that the public hits between 40 and 45% in the long run and if they are 1-9 in their last 10, this will also even out, thus taking the public side is the "correct" call or making it a no bet situation and just track what they do over the next 10 and position yourself after that.
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
I definitely need to utilize the resources on Covers to my advantage. I look at thoes trends and it would suggest that an OVER play might be the way to go tonight. Then, when checking on VI, it appears the percentages have moved to a 42/58 split which would favor an OVER play for me as well.
Hi, I've been following your thread with interest and I wouldn't place too much importance to "public" data at Covers. This is derived from the picks made in the competition and has nothing to do with betting itself. If there's something to find there, it's the divergence between the "public" and "team experts". Although I never backtested this, logic dictates that if they are on different sides of the potential bet it's a situation where one should fade the "public".
Concerning VI, as far as I know they don't post the data from any book either, but I might be wrong there.
You also have to consider that the public hits between 40 and 45% in the long run and if they are 1-9 in their last 10, this will also even out, thus taking the public side is the "correct" call or making it a no bet situation and just track what they do over the next 10 and position yourself after that.
I definitely need to utilize the resources on Covers to my advantage. I look at thoes trends and it would suggest that an OVER play might be the way to go tonight. Then, when checking on VI, it appears the percentages have moved to a 42/58 split which would favor an OVER play for me as well.
Also, if you can get from your books the line on team totals? For example:
Open line was 206.5, and spread of 3, so expected team totals are
GS101.75/SAC104.75
Now line is 207 and spread of 2.5 which gives
GS102.25/SAC104.75
Look at what the lines on each team are for totals, and see if there is a trend that GS team total line went up.
For an over you need either both teams to get over their respective team totals or for one team to outscore other by enough to make up the difference. If you expect both to go over, then another green light for over.
if you expect GS not to and SAC to compensate for GSs' non performance then it might be better to look at spread play because line is so tight. and reverse, if you expect GS to cover their team total but SAC to fall short, would GS SU be a better play?
^ can you adjust your model for this arbitrage opportunity? not easy for sure.
LOL in the end I give vegas cappers a lot of credit for being near perfect pregame over long run.
Quote Originally Posted by rlawson:
I definitely need to utilize the resources on Covers to my advantage. I look at thoes trends and it would suggest that an OVER play might be the way to go tonight. Then, when checking on VI, it appears the percentages have moved to a 42/58 split which would favor an OVER play for me as well.
Also, if you can get from your books the line on team totals? For example:
Open line was 206.5, and spread of 3, so expected team totals are
GS101.75/SAC104.75
Now line is 207 and spread of 2.5 which gives
GS102.25/SAC104.75
Look at what the lines on each team are for totals, and see if there is a trend that GS team total line went up.
For an over you need either both teams to get over their respective team totals or for one team to outscore other by enough to make up the difference. If you expect both to go over, then another green light for over.
if you expect GS not to and SAC to compensate for GSs' non performance then it might be better to look at spread play because line is so tight. and reverse, if you expect GS to cover their team total but SAC to fall short, would GS SU be a better play?
^ can you adjust your model for this arbitrage opportunity? not easy for sure.
LOL in the end I give vegas cappers a lot of credit for being near perfect pregame over long run.
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