NBA Totals - Tuesday 2-21-12

I'm very intrigued by the Miami/Sacramento total. You have to remember that while Miami may put up 110 points, it doesn't mean that the total will go over. These types of games (with Miami also as a 14 points favorite) remind me of these Alabama or LSU games from this year, when they'd be favored by 40 with a game total of only like, 50. What this line is telling us is that Sacramento isn't going to score much.

One stat that does concern me is the way Sacramento has been scoring (or not scoring) on the road. The PPG they've had for the last six road games goes like this: 100, 84, 115, 85, 108, 92. It's as if they're alternating good and bad offensive outputs. If we're looking just at the pattern, it appears they're "due" for another 100+ point night. The overs for Miami home games have hit just twice in the last ten games, while it has hit just four times in the last ten Sacramento road games.

Any thoughts on this one?

on mia sac under 

I think Miami plays pretty good defense at home. Yeah they will definitely score over 100 but I don't think they will allow Sacramento to score more than 95.

I have the final score Miami winning 105-93 (And that is a generous score as well.)

Nice - I can't say that I'll be on all of those plays, but I'm glad my numbers go in favor of all of them.

I think I will also be on the MEM/PHI over and CLE/DET under.

One thing that I've noticed lately that will have an effect on both the ATS line and the total is that Spolstra leaves his starters in for so long. Even against Orlando on Sunday, they were up huge in the late minutes of the 4th quarter and LeBron & Bosh were still out there. Now, it's one thing to be playing a Sunday afternoon game against Orlando or a Tuesday evening mismatch with the Kings, I understand that much, but just some food for thought. Your prediction looks like it could be very accurate and would put both of these teams right around their respective home and away averages.

I am leaning under for the SAC@MIA as well. 4 of mia last 5 have been over 100 so that is what has brought the total up. However, I just feel that their offense won't be so explosive tonight, but their defense will still hold the Kings low.

My information is showing a 67/33 split in favor of the UNDER on the Miami game tonight, and the line is sitting, as I type this, as the 202.5 that it opened at. I don't put a whole lot into "line movement," but it's always a red flag when so many people are on it. I understand that MONEY drives the line and not number of bets, but you know what I'm getting at.

oneinfour -

That's kind of what I base my points on..but also I factor in what they have done in the situation they are in. In this case I looked at Miami's 2nd home game after coming off an away game.

Which means they have scored the following in those games

1/2/12 Home against ATL - 92
1/19/12 Home against LAL - 98
1/29/12 Home against CHI - 97
2/7/12 Home against CLE - 107
2/21/12 Home against SAC - 107 (Today's game being generous because they are play the leagues worst defense so upped it a couple more points from the 105 I posted earlier)

Sacramento's situation is a long road game marathon. It's their 5th game of the 6 game road trip and last time that happened was in Minnesota on January 16th and they put up 86 points.

Great info. I saw the line earlier at 203.5 but now it's down to 202.5. I'm going to see if I can get it at 203 later in the day; I'm becoming more familiar with line movements and I believe I'll be able to get it at 203 or higher later. If I can, I'm going to pounce immediately.

dime -

JPSM - I'd definitely stay with your original bets... there are no reimbursements in this thread!

I like the DET/CLE UNDER best right now I think.  CLE shot 57% last time these two teams mets and they had 194 between the two of them.  Detroit has stepped up the defense of late and is rolling into CLE, I look for it to be a tough gritty lower than avg scoring game.
Looking at MIA/SAC the number scares me because of how bad the Kings are defensively, but tonight in Miami they will pull ahead early and coast, while Sacramento struggles to get anything happening against this stingy defense.
I am not so sold on PHI/MEM going OVER, I kinda like PHI at -1

rlawson - still working on your finals?

Always following your posts btw just haven't posted much until lately.

If it's at 202.5 my book will have it at 203 no matter what. They always round up

But I don't get numbers until about an hour before the first game starts but still pretty confident that I will get 203.

Yeah, I'm going to wait and see where some of these lines go throughout the day; they are all too close to call right now. Thanks for the info about Detroit/Cleveland - definitely will be looking more at that one, especially with Cleveland's injuries.

As far as the Philly game goes, I'm thinking Memphis is the play. I think the line (Philly -1) is begging for 76er money. Everyone who played them the other night will be playing them again tonight for the same reasons - they "only" have to win and they're a better team than Memphis. That may be true, but Memphis is solid at home and I believe they lead the league in turnovers created. Without looking any further into the game than just the line, I'd say Memphis for no other reason, people are looking to "get their money back" from the other night against Minneosta.

My book, a local, always sort of does whatever it wants to with lines; it doesn't necesarily follow everything else. I'll be watching it all day - I think as soon as it pops up to 203, I'm jumping on it for two units.

Yeah mine is a local as well. They usually go with the LVH lines. Let's win this game

Capped this game longer than the others so far between last night and today.

BOL today!!!

Love your analysis on the Phi/Mem game and am going to avoid that bet.  I am probably going to go ahead and put money in the Det/Cle game going UNDER .  And waiting on your final plays!