NBA Thursday 2/17/11 plays

Today is an exciting day in the NBA.  TNT Thursday night basketball featuring four good teams:  Spurs, Bulls, Mavericks, and Suns- all of them having a winning record.  I am interested in each game for different reason and here’s why:

Dallas Mavericks -1.5 risking 2.2 to win 2

I started with this game because it caught my attention first when I looked at today’s card.  I looked at it and immediately questioned why Dallas is only favored by 1.5.  Up to this point Dallas is 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS in their past 15 games.  The 2 games they lost straight up were games in a very tough scheduling spot; once to Chicago on the 2^nd game of a back to back after they beat the Lakers in a tough game the night before and once to the Denver Nuggets on another 2^nd game of a back to back.  Phoenix has also been on a 7-3 run their past 10 games, but they did not beat anyone of significance except for Boston.  And that was probably the worst game of the year for Boston in the middle of a long road trip.  Plus, they were looking ahead to playing the Lakers.

So, I proceeded to my normal research and I realized they are similar in a lot of crucial statistical categories that are particular to each team winning: Points in Paint Scoring, 3pt FG% Defense, and Turnovers.

So, I looked at the past 15 games for Dallas and their winning ATS % against the top 5 scoring teams in the league.  Phoenix is ranked #4 in scoring, so I figured I’d look at the other 4 in the top 5.  And I saw some alarming trends!

2)      2)  Now, I also researched how Dallas did against Phoenix and the other top 5 scoring teams in the NBA: Denver (107.6 ppg), New York(106.2 ppg), Houston(105.1 ppg), Phoenix(105.1 ppg), and Oklahoma City(104.7 ppg).  They are 8-3 ATS and SU, scoring an average of 105.5 and allowing 100.6 in those 11 games.  In the last game they played each other back on 12/17/10 Phoenix was held to 23.8% from behind the arc and lost badly 91-106, but Phoenix had a different cast.  This brings me to my last angle- revenge.  Phoenix is 3-8 in revenge spots.

Here are the two main stats that I think separates Dallas from Phoenix.  In 22 out of Phoenix’s 26 losses they shot under 40% from the 3pt line.  As I mentioned above, in 12 out of the past 13 wins for Dallas, they have held their opponents to 34.85% 3pt FG%.  In addition, Phoenix ranks towards the bottom in opponent’s points in the paint, so I believe they will not win that battle either.  Dallas matches up well with Phoenix and can stretch out Phoenix’s defense.  Dallas wins this!

Good stuff!

One thing to note, you said that Dallas has held opponents to something like 35% 3PT shooting in the past 15 games.  The NBA average this season is 36% (35.9% to be exact), so from my perspective that's not big enough statistical difference.  That being said, I agree that Mavs have a distinct advantage in the paint.  Also, as good as Mavs are from the 3PT line, I think Phoenix is right up there as well.  Mavs played last night (yeah, they didn't really use up too much energy) so what kind of a defensive effort are we to expect from the today?  Just offering some counter-pointers...

I still feel that you have enough good 'angles' here that do favor the Mavs and Suns have been horrid in 'revenge' situations. 

Good luck with this wager.

On another note, since you obviously like digging into stats/numbers, I would suggest creating a simple computer model that gives you a quick team by team comparison every day.  Basically it doesn't need to be too complicated, just compare PF vs PA, overall (not very useful), home/away splits (much more usefull), last 5, last 3, etc.  Then compare various important metrics (like you did with the 3PT shooting above) and adjust the variance accordingly.  Once you develop something that closely mimicks bookies' daily lines, you'll have a nice stats model to look at when analyzing each game.  That will give you great confidence in terms of figuring out when a team is over/uder valued and when the line is right on.  If your model has a bigger variance than the listed spread, the key is trying to figure out WHY.  If you can figure this out, then you'll be able to think more like a bookie and will be able to see which matchups to dig into in more detail and which to stay away from (never play a game if you don't have an 'edge'!).  This way you'll go from playing 16 games a day to 1-3 max.  :)

Good luck with NBA this season. 

im leans on bulls over 188.5 tonight, but gl......