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NBA SUN 030809 early thoughts - value hunting (5-31)

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Posted: #26
i am under the influence of bourbon so i wont look into it in detail but sas/pho does look very good, maybe even too good to be true
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Pick-N-Pop:

 
re: UTA/TOR --> You are worried about TOR's defense lately? It's been like this all season. If a snail team like Miami can put up 108 on us, I shudder to think what Sloan's system can do...

Man, that's why I love the back and forth in this thread...I have a TOR expert right here.  Safe to say that the under may not be a smart play.  Thanks pal...please keep visiting this thread...love it!
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Chase...you do realize you're asking a C's homer if you should bet against my beloved Celtics right??  LOL I think you know my answer...No letdown here for the Celtics, this team got a taste of blood the other night and can still smell first in the East...take that with a grain of salt from a homer...


lol!! i forgot how much you love your celtics. gl on all your plays tomorrow
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Turc:

i am under the influence of bourbon so i wont look into it in detail but sas/pho does look very good, maybe even too good to be true

LOL Turc so tomorrow your subject line will read 'Saturday'?  My drink of choice is JD, neat of course...

Your 'system' has gained my respect Turc...better yet, not your system but your capping has gained my respect. 
 
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Posted: #30
Turc: admittedly this does look too good to be true, with 9 of the last 10 staying under this number, with the only over being an OT game. Hopefully we're on the right side of the total though!
 
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Posted: #31

Actually it was double overtime that took it over 220.

 

 
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Posted: #32
proguy747: even better!

Oh and ax, curious as what number you capped for this game? It's always amazing/entertaining to see how close you actually came to the final score.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


LOL Turc so tomorrow your subject line will read 'Saturday'?  My drink of choice is JD, neat of course...

Your 'system' has gained my respect Turc...better yet, not your system but your capping has gained my respect. 


hehe, i hoping to recover better this time but probably won't make it to the early games. i am a beam guy myself or crown royal after a good betting night.

thanks for the love, feeling is mutual
 
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Posted: #34
PnP--got this capped @213...@220, this is the perfect 3 possession cushion I always look for.


 
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Posted: #35
Pinnacle, the sharpest lines anywhere, has this line dropping a full point by 1AM, so honestly, I agree with the assessment of buying now and deciding later whether you want to buy out of it. There's a real possibility of it dropping so much you can a) be further reinforced in the call of the line move or b) have a small opportunity to middle.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by jlippens:

Pinnacle, the sharpest lines anywhere, has this line dropping a full point by 1AM, so honestly, I agree with the assessment of buying now and deciding later whether you want to buy out of it. There's a real possibility of it dropping so much you can a) be further reinforced in the call of the line move or b) have a small opportunity to middle.

ditto
 
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Posted: #37
Fuck it, bought another unit to bring me to two full units on this. Pop knows that his geriatric team cannot possibly keep pace with Phoenix for a full 48 and thus will need to dictate a slower tempo. What does worry me is that Parker will punish Nash all day long. I mean Aaron Brooks lit him up for 30 pts on 20FG on Friday night... What's gonna happen when you have one of the premier PGs take him off the bounce? Not to mention that the Pick-N-Roll with Parker and Duncan is like fuckin' clockwork, and their counterparts in Nash and Shaq are arguably the worst PnR defenders at their respective positons in the entire league since Nash has no lateral quickness and Shaq doesn't step out to the shooter...

I am going to sleep now before I worry more and go crazy.

BOLTA!!!
 
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Posted: #38
PS vs SAS = 219 Under

Thanks AX

GL to us followers.. LoL


 
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Posted: #39



any thoughts on hou under?
 
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Posted: #40
yea, i been eyeballin that hou game myself.
 
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Posted: #41
Good Morning Ax. Hope your busy Saturday didn't wear you down. Let's make some cash today. I have the Utah/Tor game at 218. I'm laying off the potential over play. I love Phoe/SA at under 219.5. My number on that one was 214. I may also look at Den/Sac at 212. I have 206 on that one. Good Luck today my friend.
 
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Posted: #42
.........gl today
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Chase...you do realize you're asking a C's homer if you should bet against my beloved Celtics right??  LOL I think you know my answer...No letdown here for the Celtics, this team got a taste of blood the other night and can still smell first in the East...take that with a grain of salt from a homer...


Since you love the back and forth............certainly hope you don't mind me posting an alternate view for you to respond to...........


As things stand, Orlando still has to know Cleveland is the fav to get 1st in the East. Since Orlando is a dead cert for 3rd - no better or worse - that means Boston (in coming 2nd in the East) is going to cross their paths in the playoffs (Orlando has no basis to think Boston will be knocked out before the Conf semis, just as they'll have no thought they dont make the Conf semis themselves). So Orlando, having gone 0-2 vs Boston this season already, is trying to make the March 25th game in Orlando (which KG is likely to be available for) a game they're out to win to tie the season hth record at 2 a piece, rather than one they'll be out to win to avoid going 0-4. What would going 0-4 or 1-3 mean psychologically for the Magic facing the Celts in the playoffs without HCA? I think this game would be all about the coming playoffs, not regular season final standings possibilities.

Orlando has very few games to care about from here on out in the reg. season, but this as far as I see it is one of the exceptions. I'd personally love to see them win this game SU, because they then won't give a shit about Detroit the next night, even thou Detroit recently beat them in Fla.

axpiota..........your thread is a must read for me each day.  I can only hope some of your brulluuance rubs off on me.
Thanks for taking the time each day to share and help so many.

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Hank55:

Good Morning Ax. Hope your busy Saturday didn't wear you down. Let's make some cash today. I have the Utah/Tor game at 218. I'm laying off the potential over play. I love Phoe/SA at under 219.5. My number on that one was 214. I may also look at Den/Sac at 212. I have 206 on that one. Good Luck today my friend.


Utah @ Toronto is going over in my opinion

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games

I think it's gonna be a shootout with no defense from Toronto. The total will be ~220 points.
 
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Posted: #45
axpiota..........your thread is a must read for me each day. 
that's what im talking about guys!!!
but seriously no luv on hou????
 
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Posted: #46
I dont yet know how to enter the sdql, but maybe someone could find out sunday morning early game totals.  Then even better the early game after spring forward.  
My thinking is everybody is tired so would nba guys wo like to stay up to all hours being thugs.
 
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Posted: #47
Sorry about the english, I am tired.  No proof reading
 
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Posted: #48
I am starting to learn it and it looks like tronoto has the edge and the over is looking good. Sorry wrong thread to say that.  Lean away the unders.  better?
 
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Posted: #49
"edit" about tronoto having the edge.  just the "O"
 
 
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Posted: #50
Good morning Ax,
 
It's a beautiful day so far.  yesterday was a 1-2 for me cuz I bought clippers under early morning at 210.5.....a half pt kick in the bum, for me.  Today I will take revenge with your help.  Currently I see 5dimes has phx/sas game with the lowest o/u at 218.5.   I truely believe that they are one of those books who spy on covers cappers.  lol
 
currently phi/okl is at 195. 
your thoughts on this, please.
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