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NBA SUN 030809 early thoughts - value hunting (5-31)

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Posted: #76
G Morn. or aft Ax goona mail you a quest.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by burnetto57:

G Morn. or aft Ax goona mail you a quest.
covers or home email KB?
 
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Posted: #78
Is there a way to pull a stat for the totals record of day games played at 1 PM or earlier local time?

I firmly believe guys whose bodies are used to playing basketball at 8pm can't just roll right out of bed and knock down shots at noon, !PM (and this could be exaggerated when you see western teams heading east to play day games)......

With that in mind, daylight savings lost hour also plays into this line of thinking today.

And.....Phx/SA is what, 1:30 local start?
 
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Posted: #79
Just did Covers - cause home one got 'kicked back'
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by corndogking:

Is there a way to pull a stat for the totals record of day games played at 1 PM or earlier local time?

I firmly believe guys whose bodies are used to playing basketball at 8pm can't just roll right out of bed and knock down shots at noon, !PM (and this could be exaggerated when you see western teams heading east to play day games)......

With that in mind, daylight savings lost hour also plays into this line of thinking today.

And.....Phx/SA is what, 1:30 local start?

I know the matchup section on covers has that broken down for day/night games but I personally don't know if sdql can query that.  anyone???
 
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Posted: #81
Hey Ax, Kings fan here...For what it's worth there are some factors I have considered in betting this game under:

1.  Since the Kings lost Johns Salmons (their 2nd leading scorer) they have only gone over 100+ 2 times.

2.  They haven't played since Tuesday.  The Kings are notorious for coming out cold after a long lay off.

3.  Since the trade deadline, the Kings have slowed the offense down, supposedly in an attempt to get the new guys acclimated.

4.  Kevin Martin will be able to get his usual 20+ points, but questionable who can back him up.

This being said, I too feel strong about the high total for this game.  My book has them it at 213.  The only thing that concerns me is that the one constant here (trades or no trades) is that the Kings play absolutely no defense.  I see them giving up 100+ here.

BOL pal!  
 
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Posted: #82
BOL ax hope all is well at home glad to hear evertything went well at tthe hospital  PEACE!
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by Philip_Rivers:

Hey Ax, Kings fan here...For what it's worth there are some factors I have considered in betting this game under:

1.  Since the Kings lost Johns Salmons (their 2nd leading scorer) they have only gone over 100+ 2 times.

2.  They haven't played since Tuesday.  The Kings are notorious for coming out cold after a long lay off.

3.  Since the trade deadline, the Kings have slowed the offense down, supposedly in an attempt to get the new guys acclimated.

4.  Kevin Martin will be able to get his usual 20+ points, but questionable who can back him up.

This being said, I too feel strong about the high total for this game.  My book has them it at 213.  The only thing that concerns me is that the one constant here (trades or no trades) is that the Kings play absolutely no defense.  I see them giving up 100+ here.

BOL pal!  

Excellent...thanks for this.  I agree that they will likely give up the 100 easy.  As you said, they barely score 100 themselves lately.  The question now boils down to how much can DEN score over 100 and how far under 100 does SAC go?  I certainly hope I'm not liking this game only because I'm looking for late night action.  Honestly, I'm not entirely sold on the under here.  This will seriously be a game time decision for me but for now...not locked into anything...

BTW, looks like we have my SAC Kings' source.  just like fathomable is our SAS source and PnP is my our TOR source, Chump (CLE) and plenty of BOS homers too.  Lots of others I haven't mentioned.  This is good stuff...if you got a team you follow and have good info...let us know!!!

BOL pal
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by HoldenRg:

BOL ax hope all is well at home glad to hear evertything went well at tthe hospital  PEACE!

Thank you my friend.  Much appreciated! 
 
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Posted: #85
My line went back up to 218...thinkin bout gettin in at this spot. what does everyone think of 111 1st half???
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by vegasace99:

My line went back up to 218...thinkin bout gettin in at this spot. what does everyone think of 111 1st half???

you looking to go under 111 1H ace?
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


you looking to go under 111 1H ace?

was thinkin so, yes....

 
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Posted: #88
AX,
 
Got 111 for 1st half - thinkin abt it - assume u dodn't do this - but do u have an opinion re when a line is 111 1H that 1s right @ 1/2 game total for a play that one would take confidently for game 222?
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by vegasace99:

was thinkin so, yes....

I like it...if this goes over 111 in the 1H then the whole damn game is in trouble.
 
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Posted: #90
lets do this!!
 
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Posted: #91
KB, you are correct sir, I do not do 1H...I dabble with 2H sometimes...but your logic is sound...
 
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Posted: #92
locked in 111 U 1H...wow, the side dropped all the way to 4.5...was at 6 last night here in LV
 
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Posted: #93
hey ax, my house o/u is set at 215 for the pho/sa game. you think its a good bet or not?
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

I'm personally staying away myself. 

Still wondering if the PHI/OKC under has any value @ 195 since I was really hoping for 198.  that 3 point diff is a whole possesion and that could be some ticky-tack foul or some scrub scoring the last seconds of the game,  DEN/SAC looks interesting and I'm not sure if I like it or just trying to convince myself if I like it.  The deviation is too much for me to be comfortable with.




i capped phi/okc at 192, too close of a number for my liking but okc is the worst shooting team in the league and their best shooter is not playing. philly also have a good perimeter defense. on the flip side okc front court is terrible but speights and dalembert are not good enough scorers to take advantage of that.  theddus young will get his points but i dont expect it to be very high.

okc's high tempo play does concern me but i am playing small amount in this game to goalong with big pho/sas play. 
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by LFTNUT:

hey ax, my house o/u is set at 215 for the pho/sa game. you think its a good bet or not?

WOW, that's pushing it.  I cannot personally buy in @ that number.  Plenty of games left this season...no reason to force a play.  GL
 
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Posted: #96
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

KB, you are correct sir, I do not do 1H...I dabble with 2H sometimes...but your logic is sound...

Thanks - goona grab - it - like u said the logic is sound -and if it doesn't work out - we may have some 2H considerations.

 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by Turc:



i capped phi/okc at 192, too close of a number for my liking but okc is the worst shooting team in the league and their best shooter is not playing. philly also have a good perimeter defense. on the flip side okc front court is terrible but speights and dalembert are not good enough scorers to take advantage of that.  theddus young will get his points but i dont expect it to be very high.

okc's high tempo play does concern me but i am playing small amount in this game to goalong with big pho/sas play. 

Thanks Turc, I have 4 hours left to change my mind about this game...I'm afraid of overcapping the PHI/OKC and DEN/SAC games.  When the PHO/SAS pays out...I'm going to call it a day.  LOL
 
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Posted: #99
sorry for the no resPonse Ax went back to sleeP
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by Deezy135:

sorry for the no resPonse Ax went back to sleeP

just in time for the POD game...You're missing a hell of a finish in Boston
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