Posted:
#101
@theclaw
great job, Boston got it in gear late 
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NBA PLAYOFF TIME......................................2023
Posted:
#107
MY LINES ................................................. game 1... 2cd round
Nuggets -6.48 over Suns
Knicks -8.54 over Heat
If we look at PRI, Nuggets better by 2.48 but PRII Nuggets only better by .53, big difference there which tells us Suns have some strengths Nuggets lack and then when we consider the Suns best player played 8 games in these Power Ratings. 8 games we are talking, do you think KD playing in 65 games would move the needle quite a bit in both PR's ?
Suns have a very good shot to win this series, No. 1 seeds playing on such a low level like the Nuggets generally don't get very far, I'll side with Suns winning this series.
If KD played 65 games my line would be much closer to the actual line. Nuggets come in off 2 ATS losses while Suns are off 1 ATS loss, the Suns should get the split in games 1 & 2 but not very likely they win both so we could either back Suns in game 1 and up our play game 2 if we lose or wait-out game 1 and back the loser game 2. I'll choose the latter.
Based on my lines Knicks the easy choice game 1 but Knicks off 3 ATS wins, not a good spot to back the Knicks, however the Heat are also off 3 ATS wins. Will fade the ATS winner game 2 but would lean more to Knicks game 1 with such a big difference to my line.
If we look at the Knicks in PR I they are 4.54 pts better, PR II 3.29 better, both over-welmingly on the Knicks.
Knicks should win this series, I'll back the Knicks to win the series.
J Butler does have a history of elevating his game in the playoffs and the Heat over-came a lower seed (5th) to make the Finals back in 2020, but to do that twice is not very likely to happen. I will almost always go against a team doing something so difficult twice. Many like to back a team "because" they did it before but I like to fade them thinking the value is on the other side.
Suns to win the series over Nuggets (-120) --- 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Knicks to win series over Heat (-160) --- 1.6 units to win 1 unit
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Posted:
#108
MY LINES ........................................................game 7
Kings -3.95 over Warriors
Both PR's have these 2 teams almost dead-even. I'm not really surprised to see Kings win game 6 SU on the road, with 2 teams so closely matched we'd expect a game 7 if there were going to be a game 7. The Kings getting like 7, 7.5 pts game 6 looked very tempting but with Fox hurt and he shot the ball not well game 5 going 9 of 25 it sure looked like that finger could be bothering his shot. He shot well game 6 but who knows which game was the anomaly. I think Kings can definitely win this game and my lines supports that but these 2 teams are too closely matched I think maybe the Kings would have a very small edge if Fox can shot well game 7 but I pass.
I think LA beats whoever comes out of this series, LA playing much better since making the changes they made and just like the Suns, LA would not be that far behind in either one of these 2 teams in 1 of the PR's, had they played with this line-up for 65 games or so they'd very likely rank higher then either of these 2 teams and maybe by not just a small amount. Of course what they've done with this new line-up is a small sample size of games so difficult to say how good they are but I think there's no question this is a different team from what they were prior to making the changes.
I see the Suns or Lakers coming out of the West.
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Posted:
#111
Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:
@theclaw Been saying this since start of playoffs only folks starting to understand now - this Lakers team is legit!
I had the same 2 teams, Suns and LA at the start of playoffs as well bob.
Because no team rates very strong in the West and these 2 teams are clearly better then the teams were in regular season.
Who else is there, if you think about it.
Warriors are not the same team as last season, Kings are good but not real good, same for Nuggets.
Those 2 teams are the wild cards right now, how good are they, well not sure but they better then at any other point in the season. They could beat any of the higher seeds
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Posted:
#113
Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:
@theclaw My only question is if there is value on Lakers to win it all? Major upset I am guessing they will be +300 dogs against celts. What do you think?
@theclaw My only question is if there is value on Lakers to win it all? Major upset I am guessing they will be +300 dogs against celts. What do you think?
I think they have a good shot to win the West, it's tough to say exactly how good they are since they made changes not that long ago...............................
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Posted:
#115
MY LINES .............................................
Celtics -5.55 over 76ers
Nuggets -6.48 over Suns
76ers off 4 ATS wins, terrible spot to back 76ers, with Embiid out line now up to 10, how many pts is he worth ? 4.5 puts my line on the actual line. Celtics seem the play.
Suns off 2 ATS losses and trailing 1-0. My Line is with KD playing in just 8 games, is he worth another 2 to 3 pts had he played in 60 to 65 games ? Play is on the Suns.
Suns +4.5 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units
Suns to win the series +155 --- 1 unit to win 1.55 units
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Posted:
#116
MY LINES .....................................................
Knicks -8.54 over Heat
Heat off 4 ATS wins terrible spot to back the Heat, plus very difficult to win 2 straight on the road and my line all over the Knicks, play is on the Knicks
Knicks -6.5 over Heat --- 1.1 units
Knicks to win the series +125 --- 1 unit to win 1.25 units
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