NBA PLAYOFF TIME......................................2023

MY LINES ..............................................

Celtics -11.43 over Heat

we know Heat are better then in regular season, but how much better ?   if we say 4 or 5 pts puts the line pretty close to my line, game 7 line is adjusted down instead of up, we saw 8, 9 and 10 in other Celtics home games.

Here come the Celtics. As much as I expected game 6 was the one game Celtics needed to get past to complete the 1st ever win down 0-3. They found a win to get it done with .1 seconds left.

That game worked out perfect for the Celtics game 7. Heat shot 14 of 30 on 3's, 46.7% while the Celtics shot 7 of 35, 20%, wow, a 26.7% advantage to the Heat and they lost.

Celtics not only shot a terrible % but they took 5 more shots at that terrible %, a double whammy.

If things return to ave and the Heat shoot 36% the make 11 baskets for 9 fewer pts and the Celtics shoot 36% they make 13 baskets for an additional 18 points. Those 2 combined means 27  pts the Heat will lose. That's why you can't just look at Butler and Bam shooting struggles and say they will play better, of course they will but they'll also most likely have to make-up for 27 pts they will lose on 3 pt shots. 

With Celtics off 1 ATS loss instead of being off 3 ATS wins is a much better spot for the Celtics. And with the Celtics just 1-2 SU & ATS at home and the Celtics having the common denominators of past Champs with the Heat not having those the right play game 7 is on the Celtics and on the Celtics to win the title.

Celtics -7 over Heat --- 1.1 units

@theclaw

 Good time to grab them to win it all at +130 before they turn to chalk

@theclaw

 BOL tonite, hopefully a butt kicking is coming

nba really burning everyones money

ouchie

@sportschat

Nailed it 

Claw, any stats for the finals?  

You're breakdowns and ratings are always informative.  

@bobmaloogatimesfive

@sportschat

@JohnBacho

@AlgerWong

@LuckyGuy

@Force

  ........................thanks for all the comments

0-1, lost 1 unit

huge disappointment with Celtics in game 7. Not because they lost but how they played. To me it looked like they played scared, scared to death of the moment being the first team to over-come an 0-3 deficit. They couldn't do much right, almost like a high school team. very disappointing.

Almost like they lacked heart, but they just over-came a 2-3 deficit to beat 76ers and over-came the Nets and Bucks last year to make the finals so they showed some heart there, although they did crash VS Warriors in the finals when they led in game 5 and should of, could of would of won but did not.

Whether this team can get over the top and win a title is very debatable.

I didn't get around to running the playoff numbers before game 1 and very likely was not going to take any action anyway. But like pretty much everyone else I thought Nuggets were the obvious play game 1 with Heat off a tough game 6 loss and needing to go to game 7.

But as it turned out Heat were in position to cover on their final possession but the player fumbled the ball away. And that was one reason I didn't want to take action game 1 because it seemed too obvious and I thought the Heat could sneak-in for a cover late but Nuggets did get the obvious cover.

NBA FINALS ...............................................................

Power Rating I ......

Nuggets 3.69

Heat (-1.49)

Nuggets by 5.18

since 1980 teams 1.25 over better are 24-6 (80%) at winning the series

Power Rating II ........

Nuggets 52.13

Heat 49.74

Nuggets by 2.39

since 1980 teams .75 or better are 28-7 (80%) at winning the series 

Both PR's point to the Nuggets winning the series

MY LINES ........................................... game 2

using the NBA finals version of my lines giving 2 additional pts to team trailing 0-1

Nuggets -7.18 over Heat

since 1991 with a 1 pt diff to closing line my lines are 14-7 (66.7%) ATS in game 2's

we won easily last season on the Warriors in this same spot.

at this point with a 8.5 spread we have a play on the Heat 

if we consider both teams are better then the regular season PR's give them credit, but which team is better by the larger amount, no question it is the Heat. play is clearly on the Heat game 2.

Heat +8.5 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

PLAYOFF ONLY PR I  ...........................

Nuggets 4.79.......................... Nuggets SOS .98

Heat 2.64 .............................Heat 4.67

Heat clearly played the better, stronger opps, if we give extra credit to LA IMPROVEMENTS and Suns for KD when factoring in SOS pretty close to even matchup.

I was very surprised when I saw the breakdown of shooting efficiency and rebounding. I was fully expecting the Nuggets to have improve by a good margin but instead found they regressed off their regular season of only 1.48 %, it was their rebounding that was the huge improvement not shooting efficiency.

Heat were the opposite they made huge improvement in shooting efficiency with rebounding falling off some. Considering the Heat played the better opps in shooting efficiency, Celtics led the lead, Bucks with Middleton back were actually better then the Celtics but not over the entire season. Suns with KD would be better as LA after the trades.

But all considered Heat were easily the better team throughout the playoffs in the all-important shooting efficiency metrics.

Another playoff only formula that has called a number of upsets in the finals is giving additional pts for shooting efficiency in playoffs ..................................using this

Heat receive 3.57 additional pts in playoff only PR I.

Heat 6.21

Nuggets 4.79

Now, let's think about this. Nuggets the better regular season team do not have the common denominators of past champs, if they win the title they become the first team to win since 1980 that was not a defending champ not meeting the requirements in shooting efficiency of past champs. always a first time for everything, of course.

This season had the lowest ranking top seeds with the lowest ranking best overall team. How much sense does it make that in the year with the weakest top seeds and teams the first and only 8th seed should happen to win the title ??  Make too much sense, this Heat team have an excellent chance to win the Title, too good of a chance to pass them up.

Heat to win the series down 0-1 over Nuggets (+590) --- 1 unit

Adding .........

Heat to win series 4-2 over Nuggets +1500 --- .5 units to win 7.5 units

Regular season PR I has Nuggets 5.18 better then Heat but playoff only PR I has Nuggets only 2.15 better then the Heat.

We can see the Heat have made the bigger improvement in the playoffs.

Playoff only My Line ...........

Nuggets -4.15

So we can seen the current line at 8.5 all the value lies on the Heat.

The Nuggets might be better then regular season PR I but Heat are much better then regular season PR I and even at regular season ratings still my line still says to ride the Heat.

Well looky here, Heat up 9 with 4:03 left in the 4th.

Yes sir, Heat put themselves in very good position to win this series.

great call 

@Fuse

@sportschat

 . ......................

Great Job !!!  

@theclaw

@theclaw

Great work as always!

Good Luck Tonight !!!