POWER RATING I ...................................................
PR I is heavy in shooting efficiency with rebounding carrying less weight.
1. Celtics 5.94
2. Bucks 5.01
3. Cavs 4.85
4. 76ers 4.39
5. Nuggets 3.69.............. yikes a no. 1 seed under 4
6. Grizz 3.65
7. Knicks 3.05
8. Warriors 2.66
9. Kings 2.61
10. Nets 1.95
11. Lakers 1.22
12. Suns 1.21
13. Clippers .59
14 Hawks (-.08)
The West is the weakest I can ever recall any conference being by a good amount. I would not be surprised we see some crazy upsets.
Bucks and Celtics look to be the 2 best teams. Bucks made big improvements 2cd half with Middleton coming back. After 56 gamers their shooting efficiency margin was only .53% but in only 26 games they improved by almost 1% to 1.52%. And Middleton didn't even play alot of minutes in many of those games when he first came back.
We'll get into how many games each teams players who played the most minutes per game missed which we had success with that last season when the Warriors were amoung the best teams but not the best but their 5 players missed by a good amount more games in the regular season then the other top teams and the best team.
The Kings 5 players ave the most minutes per game played in 77.8 games which easily led the league and they don't really rate all that high. The Warriors 5 players played in 64.2 games, wow a pretty big 13.6 game difference per player, that's right, per player. Each 5 players for the Kings played on ave in 13.6 more games then the 5 players for Warriors. Curry missed 26 games, Wiggins 45, but Wiggins is back but will he contribute much first couple of games.
Maybe game 1 might be the Kings best shot hoping to catch Wiggins a little rusty and with Warriors off a monster over 50 pt beat-down on the Blazers might be some regression for them.
We'll get into the other teams and the trades later.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
POWER RATING I ...................................................
PR I is heavy in shooting efficiency with rebounding carrying less weight.
1. Celtics 5.94
2. Bucks 5.01
3. Cavs 4.85
4. 76ers 4.39
5. Nuggets 3.69.............. yikes a no. 1 seed under 4
6. Grizz 3.65
7. Knicks 3.05
8. Warriors 2.66
9. Kings 2.61
10. Nets 1.95
11. Lakers 1.22
12. Suns 1.21
13. Clippers .59
14 Hawks (-.08)
The West is the weakest I can ever recall any conference being by a good amount. I would not be surprised we see some crazy upsets.
Bucks and Celtics look to be the 2 best teams. Bucks made big improvements 2cd half with Middleton coming back. After 56 gamers their shooting efficiency margin was only .53% but in only 26 games they improved by almost 1% to 1.52%. And Middleton didn't even play alot of minutes in many of those games when he first came back.
We'll get into how many games each teams players who played the most minutes per game missed which we had success with that last season when the Warriors were amoung the best teams but not the best but their 5 players missed by a good amount more games in the regular season then the other top teams and the best team.
The Kings 5 players ave the most minutes per game played in 77.8 games which easily led the league and they don't really rate all that high. The Warriors 5 players played in 64.2 games, wow a pretty big 13.6 game difference per player, that's right, per player. Each 5 players for the Kings played on ave in 13.6 more games then the 5 players for Warriors. Curry missed 26 games, Wiggins 45, but Wiggins is back but will he contribute much first couple of games.
Maybe game 1 might be the Kings best shot hoping to catch Wiggins a little rusty and with Warriors off a monster over 50 pt beat-down on the Blazers might be some regression for them.
We'll get into the other teams and the trades later.
The West is the weakest I can ever recall any conference being by a good amount.
I see it a little differently. There were 12 teams in the West all beating up on each other, and playing competitively until game 82, which is something I don't think I've ever seen from either conference. Meanwhile... the East is a 3-team race, end of story. The 3 best teams in the East may be better than the elite teams in the West... but the 7th or 8th best team in the West is arguably better than the 4th best team in the East.
Not exactly sure how your ratings take into account this kind of discrepancy in the parity of the two conferences, but something to consider.
The Dude imbibes
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
The West is the weakest I can ever recall any conference being by a good amount.
I see it a little differently. There were 12 teams in the West all beating up on each other, and playing competitively until game 82, which is something I don't think I've ever seen from either conference. Meanwhile... the East is a 3-team race, end of story. The 3 best teams in the East may be better than the elite teams in the West... but the 7th or 8th best team in the West is arguably better than the 4th best team in the East.
Not exactly sure how your ratings take into account this kind of discrepancy in the parity of the two conferences, but something to consider.
Quote Originally Posted by buffer: Hawks should be number 1 they will shock Boston in first round. They're #14 but they should be #1??? Really? What's the rationale for that statement?
You must be new or something. Buffer doesn't really put money on any of the games. He will make a ridiculous comment because he wants your reaction. Turns him on. Just ignore.
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Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:
Quote Originally Posted by buffer: Hawks should be number 1 they will shock Boston in first round. They're #14 but they should be #1??? Really? What's the rationale for that statement?
You must be new or something. Buffer doesn't really put money on any of the games. He will make a ridiculous comment because he wants your reaction. Turns him on. Just ignore.
Yes you bring up a good point, I was going to talk about that. There is something going on, could be maybe teams don't take regular season as serious any more, could be all the teams are more evenly matched as you suggest or it could be the top teams are just weak.
I think when we look back historical on ave, more then not it's a case of the top seeds being weak. This season looks like the top 3 seeds in the West would easily be the lowest ranked top 3 seeds ever, I doubt it'd even be close. I think there is a possibility no top 3 seed makes the conference finals, has that ever happened ?
When we see no. 1 or no. 2 seeds get upset in the first round it is mostly because they rated-out weak, not all weak no. 1 & 2 seeds lose in the first round, it is just that when they do it's because they are weak. They don't make it very far though. What tells me it's a case of being weak is the teams that beat them don't get very far, if it were a case of being more evenly matched we'd see teams beating the top teams advancing deeper into the playoffs at least to some degree.
Hopefully someday I'll break all this down in more detail with all the past history of these weak top seeds, but it won't be this year.
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@Duderonomy
Yes you bring up a good point, I was going to talk about that. There is something going on, could be maybe teams don't take regular season as serious any more, could be all the teams are more evenly matched as you suggest or it could be the top teams are just weak.
I think when we look back historical on ave, more then not it's a case of the top seeds being weak. This season looks like the top 3 seeds in the West would easily be the lowest ranked top 3 seeds ever, I doubt it'd even be close. I think there is a possibility no top 3 seed makes the conference finals, has that ever happened ?
When we see no. 1 or no. 2 seeds get upset in the first round it is mostly because they rated-out weak, not all weak no. 1 & 2 seeds lose in the first round, it is just that when they do it's because they are weak. They don't make it very far though. What tells me it's a case of being weak is the teams that beat them don't get very far, if it were a case of being more evenly matched we'd see teams beating the top teams advancing deeper into the playoffs at least to some degree.
Hopefully someday I'll break all this down in more detail with all the past history of these weak top seeds, but it won't be this year.
POWER RATING II .......................................................
PR II is more balance heavy with rebounding carrying more weight then PR I.
1. Celtics 53.35
2. Knicks 53.03
3. Bucks 52.97
4. Cavs 52.75
5. Grizz 52.6
6. Nuggets 52.13
7. 76ers 52.13
8. Suns 51.6
9. Kings 51.4
10. Warriors 51.35
11. Lakers 50.77
12, Hawks 50.32
13, Clippers 50.06
14, Nets 49.08
Once again the Celtics at the top. Interesting that few teams win the title under 53.5 but every team this season is under 53.5. Knicks are strong in rebounding but not very good in the all-important shooting efficiency. Still they are only slightly ahead of the Cavs but trail by quite a bit in PR I and the Cavs are 2cd best in shooting efficiency margin to the Celtics, maybe the Bucks could be in there if we consider Middleton's return and how well Bucks played they could be no. 1.
Kings VS warriors rate very close in both PR's which if we just use the full season numbers this looks like a series could go either way. But when we look at games missed the Warriors like the better team.
Suns actually have missed the most games with KD arriving later in the season then getting hurt, their 5 players played on ave just 48.6 games, so they will be difficult to get anything close to an accurate rating. They are a good rebounding team just not good at all in shooting efficiency so we know KD will make this area much better.
Cavs 5 players played in 71.6, 2cd best to the Kings
Knicks 62.8, a decent difference but I doubt enough to overcome their lack of shooting efficiency.
Celtics 69.4, 3rd most, Bucks 62.2, Bucks 7.2 games fewer per player, and with the Bucks 2cd best player missing many games to me looks like that makes the matchup pretty even based solely on the ratings.
Nuggets 68, 76ers 67, I don't have the Grizz, not sure who'll replace Adams. But Adams out is a big loss, he was by far their best rebounder and since they don't really shoot the ball all that well they'll need rebounding. Adams grabbed 22.7% of rebs of the players play the most minutes Aldama got 11.7%, about half and Tillman 13.8%.
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POWER RATING II .......................................................
PR II is more balance heavy with rebounding carrying more weight then PR I.
1. Celtics 53.35
2. Knicks 53.03
3. Bucks 52.97
4. Cavs 52.75
5. Grizz 52.6
6. Nuggets 52.13
7. 76ers 52.13
8. Suns 51.6
9. Kings 51.4
10. Warriors 51.35
11. Lakers 50.77
12, Hawks 50.32
13, Clippers 50.06
14, Nets 49.08
Once again the Celtics at the top. Interesting that few teams win the title under 53.5 but every team this season is under 53.5. Knicks are strong in rebounding but not very good in the all-important shooting efficiency. Still they are only slightly ahead of the Cavs but trail by quite a bit in PR I and the Cavs are 2cd best in shooting efficiency margin to the Celtics, maybe the Bucks could be in there if we consider Middleton's return and how well Bucks played they could be no. 1.
Kings VS warriors rate very close in both PR's which if we just use the full season numbers this looks like a series could go either way. But when we look at games missed the Warriors like the better team.
Suns actually have missed the most games with KD arriving later in the season then getting hurt, their 5 players played on ave just 48.6 games, so they will be difficult to get anything close to an accurate rating. They are a good rebounding team just not good at all in shooting efficiency so we know KD will make this area much better.
Cavs 5 players played in 71.6, 2cd best to the Kings
Knicks 62.8, a decent difference but I doubt enough to overcome their lack of shooting efficiency.
Celtics 69.4, 3rd most, Bucks 62.2, Bucks 7.2 games fewer per player, and with the Bucks 2cd best player missing many games to me looks like that makes the matchup pretty even based solely on the ratings.
Nuggets 68, 76ers 67, I don't have the Grizz, not sure who'll replace Adams. But Adams out is a big loss, he was by far their best rebounder and since they don't really shoot the ball all that well they'll need rebounding. Adams grabbed 22.7% of rebs of the players play the most minutes Aldama got 11.7%, about half and Tillman 13.8%.
@theclaw Must Check always here preciate your angles posts super enlightening....Ive grown to respect regression the clown because of your posts, sincere thx!
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Quote Originally Posted by skoonr3:
@theclaw Must Check always here preciate your angles posts super enlightening....Ive grown to respect regression the clown because of your posts, sincere thx!
MY LINES ................................................... game 1's saturday
76ers -6.44 over Nets, but includes KD and Kyrie games, about 40 games each
Celtics -10.02 over Hawks
Cavs -5.8 over Knicks
Kings -2.94 over Warriors
Nets will be hard to get any kind of accurate rating, forgot to mention them above, I didn't get their stats at the All-star break. how many pts are they both worth ? Line is 10, 3.56 pts easy I'd quess which puts my line on 10, probably more. Will pass on that game.
Maybe the C's.
Looks like the line is moving toward the Knicks, if it keeps dropping I'll grab the Cavs.
Kings look like the play using just the season long numbers and with Warriors off a 50 pt beatdown, might be the play to make game 1 with Wiggins coming back for his first game in a long while.
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MY LINES ................................................... game 1's saturday
76ers -6.44 over Nets, but includes KD and Kyrie games, about 40 games each
Celtics -10.02 over Hawks
Cavs -5.8 over Knicks
Kings -2.94 over Warriors
Nets will be hard to get any kind of accurate rating, forgot to mention them above, I didn't get their stats at the All-star break. how many pts are they both worth ? Line is 10, 3.56 pts easy I'd quess which puts my line on 10, probably more. Will pass on that game.
Maybe the C's.
Looks like the line is moving toward the Knicks, if it keeps dropping I'll grab the Cavs.
Kings look like the play using just the season long numbers and with Warriors off a 50 pt beatdown, might be the play to make game 1 with Wiggins coming back for his first game in a long while.
Cavs over 2% better in shooting efficiency margin and better by over 1% in PRI, Knicks slightly better in PR II but only because they are easily the best rebounding team in the playoffs and PR II gives more weight to rebs. But Knicks are weak in shooting efficiency margin at a paltry .43% and these type teams are to be avoided. While the Cavs are 2.84%.
Over 2.5% would be consider championship caliber teams as most all teams that win titles are over 2.5% with the exception of defending champs whom rarely ever produce better stats the next year and the Warriors are no exception to this rule. That makes defending champs the toughest to judge.
Celtics 3.05%
Cavs 2.8%
76ers 2.65%
Compare these teams to the best in the West......
Nuggets 1.48%
Grizz 1.4%
Kings 1.35%
These West teams won't be walking away with the big trophy at the end.
I broke-down the Bucks shooting efficiency in their final 26 games only since the all-star break and then the return of Middleton ....
Bucks 3.85%
That's the look of a very strong team but it's not really known whether they can sustain that level of play consistently. I think they had a stretch of games where they played lights out. Their rebounding fell-off a little bit which is common but not all that much.
They would rate out in PR I at 8.4 which easily makes them the best team by far. And 54.85 in PR II but only over a much smaller sample of games, Im sure if we took the Celtics best stretch of games they'd likely rate much higher as well.
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Cavs to win series over Knicks -190 --- 1.9 units
Cavs over 2% better in shooting efficiency margin and better by over 1% in PRI, Knicks slightly better in PR II but only because they are easily the best rebounding team in the playoffs and PR II gives more weight to rebs. But Knicks are weak in shooting efficiency margin at a paltry .43% and these type teams are to be avoided. While the Cavs are 2.84%.
Over 2.5% would be consider championship caliber teams as most all teams that win titles are over 2.5% with the exception of defending champs whom rarely ever produce better stats the next year and the Warriors are no exception to this rule. That makes defending champs the toughest to judge.
Celtics 3.05%
Cavs 2.8%
76ers 2.65%
Compare these teams to the best in the West......
Nuggets 1.48%
Grizz 1.4%
Kings 1.35%
These West teams won't be walking away with the big trophy at the end.
I broke-down the Bucks shooting efficiency in their final 26 games only since the all-star break and then the return of Middleton ....
Bucks 3.85%
That's the look of a very strong team but it's not really known whether they can sustain that level of play consistently. I think they had a stretch of games where they played lights out. Their rebounding fell-off a little bit which is common but not all that much.
They would rate out in PR I at 8.4 which easily makes them the best team by far. And 54.85 in PR II but only over a much smaller sample of games, Im sure if we took the Celtics best stretch of games they'd likely rate much higher as well.
Game 2 will be very interesting as generally the road team gets one good shot to win a game, if they get close and fail they may not have that same opportunity next game.
Cavs lost 1st game but we throw another unit on them at much better odds.
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1-0 ATS, won 1 unit
Game 2 will be very interesting as generally the road team gets one good shot to win a game, if they get close and fail they may not have that same opportunity next game.
Cavs lost 1st game but we throw another unit on them at much better odds.
MY LINES ................................ game 1's sunday
Grizz -6.43 over LA
Bucks -10.5 over Heat
Suns -4.62 over Clippers
Nuggets -7.18 over Wolves
Suns with KD should receive 2 to 3 more pts I'd quess which puts my line about right on the actual line.
Play looks to be on the Grizz but with Adams out I may pass.
Bucks look to be the play depending on Middleton. Line should be closer to 10.5 and that does not include Bucks playing much better with Middleton back and playing big minutes, if Middleton is good to go I'd put the line closer to 12.
If the fav continue the recent covers I'd look for Nuggets line to maybe rise and grab the Wolves.
Let's stay patient and wait out some good spots.
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MY LINES ................................ game 1's sunday
Grizz -6.43 over LA
Bucks -10.5 over Heat
Suns -4.62 over Clippers
Nuggets -7.18 over Wolves
Suns with KD should receive 2 to 3 more pts I'd quess which puts my line about right on the actual line.
Play looks to be on the Grizz but with Adams out I may pass.
Bucks look to be the play depending on Middleton. Line should be closer to 10.5 and that does not include Bucks playing much better with Middleton back and playing big minutes, if Middleton is good to go I'd put the line closer to 12.
If the fav continue the recent covers I'd look for Nuggets line to maybe rise and grab the Wolves.
POWER RATING I..........................................
14 Wolves .51
16 Heat (-1.49)
POWER RATING II ......................................
14 Heat 49.74
16 Wolves 48.99
The Wolves weakness is rebounds big time. Looks like Gobert is questionable, he is by far the best rebounder, if we look at shooting efficiency margin Wolves not far behind the Nuggets.
Nuggets 1.48%
Wolves 1.09%
Considering both Towns and Conly didn't play in many games, Towns is a the best FG % shooter of all Wolves players take many shots. When we add this in could be pretty close in shooting efficiency margin. Wolves the worst reb team in playoffs but Nuggets although they are solid decent reb team are not very good. With shooting efficiency being the most important stat produces winners and Nuggets one of the worst no. 1 seeds a Wolves series win would not be a big surprise.
Meanwhile Heat look like the worst team and playing maybe the best team, oh boy !!
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POWER RATING I..........................................
14 Wolves .51
16 Heat (-1.49)
POWER RATING II ......................................
14 Heat 49.74
16 Wolves 48.99
The Wolves weakness is rebounds big time. Looks like Gobert is questionable, he is by far the best rebounder, if we look at shooting efficiency margin Wolves not far behind the Nuggets.
Nuggets 1.48%
Wolves 1.09%
Considering both Towns and Conly didn't play in many games, Towns is a the best FG % shooter of all Wolves players take many shots. When we add this in could be pretty close in shooting efficiency margin. Wolves the worst reb team in playoffs but Nuggets although they are solid decent reb team are not very good. With shooting efficiency being the most important stat produces winners and Nuggets one of the worst no. 1 seeds a Wolves series win would not be a big surprise.
Meanwhile Heat look like the worst team and playing maybe the best team, oh boy !!
MY LINES ............................................... game 2's monday
76ers -6.44 over Nets
Kings -2.95 over Warriors
76ers off a big 20 pt win, but my line includes KD and Kyrie playing in almost half the Net's games. The line seems about right I pass on this game.
Kings off a 3 pt win with Warriors off 3 ATS & SU wins coming into the playoffs including a beat-down 56 pt win and a over 20 pt win in these spots it's typical a team loses 2 of the next 3 ATS, with Kings clearly the choice using my lines, Kings look like the right play. This game is tough for me to back as I normally won't back a game 1 ATS winner in game 2 using my lines. It is possible Kings could lose here then win ATS in game 3, but also possible Kings cover the first 3 games.
I see a good number thinking Warriors are a shoo-in winner tonight, I don't think so nor do I think Warriors are a shoo-in to win this series. Both PR's have these teams almost dead-even. It wouldn't surprise if either team won.
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MY LINES ............................................... game 2's monday
76ers -6.44 over Nets
Kings -2.95 over Warriors
76ers off a big 20 pt win, but my line includes KD and Kyrie playing in almost half the Net's games. The line seems about right I pass on this game.
Kings off a 3 pt win with Warriors off 3 ATS & SU wins coming into the playoffs including a beat-down 56 pt win and a over 20 pt win in these spots it's typical a team loses 2 of the next 3 ATS, with Kings clearly the choice using my lines, Kings look like the right play. This game is tough for me to back as I normally won't back a game 1 ATS winner in game 2 using my lines. It is possible Kings could lose here then win ATS in game 3, but also possible Kings cover the first 3 games.
I see a good number thinking Warriors are a shoo-in winner tonight, I don't think so nor do I think Warriors are a shoo-in to win this series. Both PR's have these teams almost dead-even. It wouldn't surprise if either team won.
Kings/Warriors was an easy over game 1. I saw guys breaking this down on you tube, they said Kings had a higher then average defense reb and getting out on the break and the Kings go through Sabinis with him giving handoffs but Warriors disrupted this and the Kings then upped the pace to be their fastest pace this season. They normal were around 11th or 12th in pace.
Game 2 might be different. But Warriors only shot 32% on 3's, they'll likely shoot better, Kings shot over 37% which is slightly better then their ave so they could sustain that level.
When Warriors led by 5-7 pts in 2cd half maybe start of 4th quarter or sometime after I checked the box scores and Warriors were shooting the same 32% on 3's but the Kings were not making their 3's shooting only 26.8% and yet they were right there, when they came back they began hitting those 3's to end the game shooting over 37%.
Warriors shot the higher FG % by almost 3% which is alot for a team to lose the game. Kings won reb battle by 9 and the offensive reb by 8 and TO battle by 2 for 10 extra possesions and took 5 more FT's making 5 more as well while shooting the higher% allowing them to shoot a lower overall FG% and still win the game.
Kings very well might just shoot the higher FG% tonight.
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Kings/Warriors was an easy over game 1. I saw guys breaking this down on you tube, they said Kings had a higher then average defense reb and getting out on the break and the Kings go through Sabinis with him giving handoffs but Warriors disrupted this and the Kings then upped the pace to be their fastest pace this season. They normal were around 11th or 12th in pace.
Game 2 might be different. But Warriors only shot 32% on 3's, they'll likely shoot better, Kings shot over 37% which is slightly better then their ave so they could sustain that level.
When Warriors led by 5-7 pts in 2cd half maybe start of 4th quarter or sometime after I checked the box scores and Warriors were shooting the same 32% on 3's but the Kings were not making their 3's shooting only 26.8% and yet they were right there, when they came back they began hitting those 3's to end the game shooting over 37%.
Warriors shot the higher FG % by almost 3% which is alot for a team to lose the game. Kings won reb battle by 9 and the offensive reb by 8 and TO battle by 2 for 10 extra possesions and took 5 more FT's making 5 more as well while shooting the higher% allowing them to shoot a lower overall FG% and still win the game.
Kings very well might just shoot the higher FG% tonight.
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