Posted:
#151
he's lines
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NBA PLAYOFF TIME......................................2023
Posted:
#155
0-0-1, won 0 units
Knicks couldn't get it done, Heat are definately playing on a much higher level then in regular season. I couldn't get on the right side of Knicks games in the 1st or 2cd round, happens but we stay the course with the info.
LA got it done to go up 3-1 and take control of the series. I broke-down LA in their final 22 games of the regular season and they rated 4.67 in PR I, that's a small sample of games but gives us an idea how much better they are playing after the changes. The 1st 60 games they rated only .03. Their shooting efficiency margin went from .04% after 60 games to 1.67 % in the final 22 games. Their rebounding improved as well. But 1.67% is not championship caliber level of play but it is better then Nuggets at 1.48% and the Warriors at 1.15%. Kings were 1.35%, so LA the best of the West, but not by so much I'd consider it a huge advantage. I still think the Nuggets are not very good for a 1 seed and might be in for some surprises before it's all said and done.
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Posted:
#156
MY LINES ............................................................
Celtics -5.55 over 76ers
Nuggets -6.48 over Suns
Celtics off a SU & ATS loss with the series tied 2-2 and Celtics just 1-1 SU & ATS at home, can 76ers beat them 2 out of 3 on the road? With the Celtics the better team I'd look for them to win SU but according to my line it's to many pts, I'd lean more to 76ers with the pts.
Nuggets off 2 SU & ATS losses, a decent spot to back them but not the best and back at home being off 2 ATS wins both by double digits at home not the best of spots since the book now makes a line adjustment from the 1st 2 games in Denver up to -5 and line moves further to -5.5, with Nuggets just under 1 pt difference to my line and KD playing in only 8 games and considering the line adjustment I like the Suns with the pts. I'd wait-out the line and see if it goes up to 6 maybe 6.5..
With Booker playing out of his mind definately is concerning, don't see he can continue on such an incredible streak of shooting, both he and KD have to shoot well for them to have any chance on the road.
It's either the dogs or no play for me tonight.
I still don't like the Nuggets as a weak no. 1 seed and think they get exposed at some pt and it just might be tonight.
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Posted:
#160
MY LINES ........................................................
Knicks -8.54 over Heat
Warriors -5.44 over LA
game 5 both home teams down 3-1, all the incentive is with the home teams, doubt the road teams will match the intensity brought by the home teams. Warriors at home is clearly the play but with my lines leaning LA even with the season long LA Power rating and we know LA is better so I'll pass.
We know the Heat are better then the power ratings (8-1 ATS thus far in playoffs) but how much better we don't know so I'll pass on the game.
I think back both home teams and you should go at least 1-1 with a possible 2-0, much like last night when both dogs went at least 1-1.
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Posted:
#164
MY LINES ......................................................
76ers -2.45 over Celtics
Suns -1.52 over Nuggets
76ers off 2 SU and ATS wins not the best of spots but not terrible either and favored according to my lines and in a game 6 close-out game. In this spot with 2 teams with the shooting efficiency of past champs and Celtics being the better team I don't think 76ers can win 3 straight, this is the typical series goes to 7 games, but if 76ers are to win the series most likely they get it done tonight, although they are not the better team they can still win this series. I like the Celtics tonight but with my lines leaning 76ers I pass making any plays.
Nuggets in a game 6 close-out game, Nuggets don't rank very high and are not that much better then the Suns if better at all with KD playing, but they are playing on a higher level in the playoffs then they rank. According to all the info I like the Suns tonight but with Nuggets playing on a higher level I will pass on the game.
I think backing Celtics and Suns likely will go at least 1-1 ATS, but I'll pass on these games and wait-out what I'd consider better oppurtunities down the road.
1
Posted:
#166
Quote Originally Posted by sportschat:
@theclaw I completely agree passing. I think the Celtics are superior yet look like crap too often
@theclaw I completely agree passing. I think the Celtics are superior yet look like crap too often
yea, Tatum was terrible but Celtics pull it out in a low scoring game, good thing it was low scoring getting no help from Tatum in a huge game for them...................
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Posted:
#168
MY LINES .........................................................
Knicks -8.54 over Heat
LA -2.56 over Warriors
Knicks clearly the choice with my line and both PR's but based on how the series has played out, that says Heat wrap it up tonight. Clearly the Heat are not priced right using my lines and both PR's, Very tempting to take the Heat here tonight. I'll hold out hope Knicks can get it done and force a game 7 but I won't put my money on that happening. Sometimes the info can be proven correct even when it appears it won't be. I'll stay discipled and pass on this game.
LA looks like Davis will play but Wiggins might be out, my line favors LA with changes LA made and the way the series has played out much like the Heat points to LA, so with everything pointing to LA wrapping up this series the play is on LA.
I think backing both home teams to wrap up the series will at least go 1-1 with a good possibility of 2-0. So far we have hung at least 1-1 past 3 days, should do it again tonight.
LA -2.5 over Warriors --- 1.1 units.
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Posted:
#172
1-0 , won 1 unit
LA dominates the close-out game and breaks the 28 straight series with a road win for Warriors. Kerr said it best, Warriors were not playing on a championship level this season, that is the reality. When past champs are no longer amoung the best teams they don't win the title.
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Posted:
#173
MY LINES .................................................................
Celtics -5.55 over 76ers
Nuggets -6.47 over LA
Nuggets -3.02 over LA ...... using LA PR after the trades for final 22 games of regular season.
Celtics the better team but not by so much that I would make it a automatic play Their shooting efficiency margin is pretty close with Celtics the better team by .4% but with the 76ers a borderline weak rebounding team and Celtics 1.1% better and with 76ers already winning 2 of 3 games in Boston I doubt they will win 3 of 4, I'd back the Celtics to win by double digits. But because both teams have the shooting efficiency margin of past champs I'll pass on making a play but I do think the winner wins the title and that should be the Celtics.
I'd look for LA to win 1 of the first 2 games in Denver. With the Nuggets off 2 ATS big wins, a 25 pt blowout win and a 16 pt win, but LA is off 2 big ATS wins of their own, a 21 pt win and a 15 pt win. Either one of these teams could enter the "regression zone" with another big win. I'd look more for that team to be Nuggets mostly because they are playing at home and have the better potential to win big. Be very careful getting to over-confident with the Nuggets if they win game 1 big, if this happens I can see it already on how many people will get hammered backing the Nuggets game 2.
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