NBA PLAYOFF TIME..........................................2021

Great Work

Washington and Utah were  

Great Analysis !!! 

games --- 2-0 ATS, won 2 units

totals --- 0-1, lost 1.1 units

we got off to a slow start (2-6 ATS) backing all the home teams game 1's using my lines only. What gave us lots of success in the years prior to the bubble last year was using my lines with specific spots which we can do from game 2's and on, 11-4 ATS since that time with only 1 day had losing record in the past 8 days 

Let's see if we can keep this train rolling .

MY LINES.............................. game 5's

Nets -9.42 over Celtics

Nuggets -7.75 over Blazers

Suns -7.09 over LA

Nets a largest mismatch team in which we could back them every game for an almost certain winning ATS record, they are 3-1 ATS, we did pass on Nets game 3 and we are 3-0 ATS backing the Nets. Nets off a big 15 point win after a SU loss, Nets responded bigtime after that SU loss. Better stronger teams generally deliver in a closeout game and books knowing this jack up the line, Nets were -8 game 1 and -9 game 2 but now are -12.5, Nets could cover this number of course but not the best of spots for the Nets, they likely win SU but to risky in this spot to back them ATS, will pass 

Nets/C's off 3 overs with totals of 238, 244, 267, 267 being the 2cd highest total thus far, closeout games generally go under more often, good spot to take the under

Nuggets of a big 20 blowout loss which is not surprising considering they lost game 1 and needed to expend alot of energy and effort to get home court back by winning games 2 & 3, that was their goal winning game 4 was not important to them. But game 5 is as they need to hold home court, very good spot to back the Nuggets tonight and my lines has a big difference with the actual line. Nuggets also a largest mismatch team with Blazers finishing deadlast in FG % margin at  (-2%). We did pass on game 4 backing the Nuggets , we are 2-1 ATS thus far backing them.

With AD out Suns looking good for a win and cover, Suns have a great, great shot to win this game tonight and the series but with the line going up and my lines -7.09 but LBJ missed 27 games LA should be better then the ratings so line seems about right, will pass.

Nuggets -1.5 over Blazers --- 1.1 units

Nets/C's UNDER 231.5 --- 1.1 units

Adding additional play since the line has gone way up

Nets/Celtics UNDER 234.5 --- 1.1 units

Huge line adjustment off Nets 1st home game plus all the other info I posted earlier, public pounded the over, love the under in this game, could be an easy win.

games --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

totals --- 1-1 ATS, lost .1 units

The under was coming in all game long, start of 4th teams were ave 55 pts per quarter and we had 69 pts to go under the 234.5 and 66 pts to go under the 231.5, looked like a potential easy win but then the Nets explode raining down 3's and the pace picks up bigtime. Geez, we lose the 231.5 by half a point but were also lucky at the end a 3 PT basket and we lose both with plenty of time to hit one for both teams.

Moral of the story....... getting the best available line pays off many times, just a few times can be a big difference in your end result. I wanted to waitout the line when I posted the 231.5 but going to work sometimes I will forget to post the play later in the day and miss out. Thus far posting early hasn't hurt us with line movements but eventually one will get you.

Nets look so strong offensively, they still have some weaknesses but they are so good on offense I don't see Bucks winning the series. The Freak has a new post-up move, dream like shake spin to baseline jumper that he used successfully VS Heat, Nets have no matchup for this, if he can abuse the Nets down low maybe they have a shot but even then likely not enough.

LBJ was way off his game this season, his player efficiency rating has been dropping every year for a number of years and was lowest this year, he is not the same player, he took 19 shots, that is not near enough on the team he has without AD, he was a very strong 6 of 10 on 3's but a dreadful 3 of 9 on 2's with no FT's, really, no FT's,  only 5 rebs without AD ? 7 ASSIST AIN'T BAD BUT NOT STEALS AND NO BLOCKS.

In a game without AD where was he ? Not the same player, his game has been falling off every year, not surprising though as age is catching up with him.

Nuggets rise to the occasion even with Dame going off and take control of the series. Nuggets should win the series from here.

MY LINES....................................... game 5's

Knicks -3.73 over Hawks

76ers -11.36 over Wiz

Clippers -8.25 over Mavs 

Jazz -12.69 over Grizz

Great spot for Knicks, off 2 SU & ATS losses, with Hawks winning 3 of 4 games to gain home court they put so much into getting home court Knicks will run them out the building tonight in a possible elimination game for them.

76ers without Embiid, pass on that, with him definately like 76ers off a closeout loss.

Clips off 2 ATS wins getting back into the series, Clips the better team who could come-back and win series but like Hawks put so much enegry and effort into doing that, pass on game. Not sure Doncic status either.

Jazz , we are 3-1 ATS riding the Jazz but time to jump off this train with Jazz off 3 ATS wins and similar spot to Hawks and Clips, losing game 1 Jazz put so much into getting control of series back with 3 more  games left to close out the series Jazz may not bring the same energy and effort into this game. More likely a better spot to back the Grizz but Will pass. 

Great analysis

Knicks -1.5 over Hawks --- 2.2 units

Knicks/Hawks OVER 208 --- 1.1 units

Jazz/Grizz UNDER 225 --- 1.1 units

@theclaw

 Nice Hit On The Denver Nuggets !!!  

Keep It Up Brother 

Solid info! keep up the great work

Seems like a good spot for the Knicks.. GL 

games 0-1 ATS, lost 2.2 units

totals 0-2, lost 2.2 units

dreadful night, Knicks suck, to many offensive droughts, can't  shoot to save their lives. Not surprised to see Hawks win the series but in 5 games ? Didn't think that would happen.

Mavs take control of series, likely Clippers win game 6 but hopefully Mavs win the series as Jazz should handle them without much trouble.

MY LINES...............................................

Blazers -.25 over Nuggets

Lakers -.91 over Suns

Nuggets off a double OT win with a 3-2 series lead, Nuggets should be able to wrap up the series tonight but will pass on this game. We are 3-1 ATS riding the Nuggets this series, have pending futures on Nuggets to win series, don't like backing a team in this spot.

AD looks like a game time decision, Suns with a great shot to wrap up the series, if AD is not playing Suns should get it done. Will pass on this game as well.

I think we have better games down the road coming up soon. Hoping to see the Suns win tonight and the Nuggets and the Mavs tommorrow that would clear the way for the Jazz and make the games more predictable, hopefully anyway.

@theclaw

Right call on both games….. You should have played them 

AD played but couldn't last long, who knew how that'd go, obviously even if he had played he was not going to be close to 100%. Probably should have played the Nuggets, almost did , was back and forth on it.

MY LINES........................................ GAME 6 

Clippers -.25 over Mavs

Kawhi and George both missed a good amount of time so chances are they should be bigger favorites. Clips off a SU & ATS loss and are the better team whom normally should win this game. But we can counter that with Mavs up 3-2 and normally team up 3-2 goes on to win series and generally the road team does not win game 7 which means the Mavs would have to win game 6 for that history to hold.

Looking at games like this is one way to pull off the better team when an upset might be in the works.

The other thing is, has it ever happened that the road team has won every game over a 7 game series ? Not likely. Which means Mavs would win here or Clippers could win a game 7. But for every piece of history to hold Mavs would need to win tonight, team up 3-2 wins series and road team does not win every game and road team won't win game 7.

But there is some history that when a team does come back down in the series  they are the better team such as the Clippers  are here.

Interesting info  on Clippers, last year Clippers lost to Nuggets when Clippers had the common denominators of past champions and Nuggets did not, this doesn't happen very often, if Clippers lose this series they will have had common denominators and lost to a team without them in back to back season something I doubt any team has ever done.

Kawhi's legacy likely takes a hit if they lose this series especially losing last year up 3-1, but if he can bring this team back and win series the way Doncic has been playing and come back down 0-2 losing twice at home to open the series, wow his light will shine pretty bright if he can do it.

I think the Clipper should win tonight and cover but will pass on the game as some of the info alerts us to pull off the better team when an upset might be in the works.

We have better spots coming up in 2cd round.

Great Job !!!