NBA PLAYOFF TIME..........................................2021

@theclaw 

post #200

so duly noted and well put mah man 

Public has been on a tear...... 4-0 run and a larger 6-1 run and even larger 9-3 run, not sustainable. With 78% on the Suns looking more and more like a Bucks kinda night.

Teams  are  2-0 ATS at home  in games 1 & 2 and then  have over a 1 pt diff to my line are great fades back at home game 5 if my line favors the dog.  Line needs to go to 4.5.

If line goes to 4.5 will most likely make a play on the Bucks, still like the Bucks either way but a 1 pt diff is a spot the home team can win SU but lose ATS.

looking at the covers consensus it is 68% on the Suns. wow, crazy everyone likes the home teams to keep holding court.

Yes sir Bucks did it again. We talked about this way back VS Nets then again VS Hawks and again during the finals, the Bucks close out the close game and deliver in the clutch once again. Something they could not do past couple of years.

Thus far in the finals there have been 2 close games down to the wire could of went either way and the Bucks won both and a big reason they lead 3-2 in the series.

Public took it on the chin as well.

MY LINES..................................................game 6

Bucks -4.55 over Suns

Line is about where it should be based on my line.

Bucks off 3 SU & ATS wins including a SU win as a dog , not a good spot for the Bucks. Bucks in a closeout game, closeout games we don't use my line rather we back the team to win the series if we have clear series winner based on the info. Bucks better in both PR's in the regular season, Bucks better in PR II in playoffs only but Suns better in PR I. Suns better in shooting efficiency margin in playoffs, the most important  key area.

I would favor the Bucks to win the series but not clear enough to make a play based on this info. If the Bucks win the series very likely they win game 6 at home as the road team does not win game 7 very often.

With the Bucks in a bad spot very possible we see a close game with Bucks winning SU but the Suns covering the spread, somewhat common in this spot.

It wouldn't surprise me at all for Suns to win SU but I think the Bucks get it done and hoist the trophy after game 6.

To risky to make a play, bad spot for Bucks and not clear enough info on the Bucks to win the series, can't back the Suns either as the team wins SU covers far more then not but in this spot we very well could see Suns cover but lose SU. Just to risky to me.

Bucks got it done and when the Suns pulled within 4 pts towards the end of the game it was once again the Bucks who delivered in the clutch. The Freak was incredible, he has shown all series a variety of different shots, turn-around jumpers in the paint, little floaters, Holiday was pretty incredible on defense he made some great defensive plays in the series and Middleton has really grown as a player from past 2 years of playoff failures, he delivered time and again in the clutch over the entire playoffs., he can now create his shot off the dribble much better and made some incredible what looked like off-balanced shots. 

Suns are a young team they need to learn to win much like the Bucks did, Bucks needed a better point guard the Suns need more rebounding, no rebounds no rings as Pat Reilly once told his Magic led Lakers.

I still don't think the Bucks could have beaten the Nets though had they not had injuries to 2 of their best players.  They barely won with those injuries in 7 games down to the wire.

What's going to be interesting is how much confidence the Bucks players gain from this title, how much they have learned how to win, how to deliver in the clutch and with both the Freak and Middleton both growing as players and of course Holiday will the Bucks elavate their games to another level where they can beat the Nets team even with all 3 superstar players healthy ?

Bucks to win Title --- won 14 units

Bucks to win East --- won 5.2 units

Jazz to win title --- lost 2.5 units

Jazz to win West --- lost 2.5 units

Won 14.2 units

Conference Finals..................................

games --- 4-0 ATS, won 4 units

totals --- we did win the totals play but posted the under when clearly in the writeup was on the over so won't count the play.

NBA Finals..................................

games --- 2-1 ATS, won .9 units

ML  --- lost 1 unit

We finished up on a 6-2 Run, 7-2 had I posted the right totals play and did quite well on our futures plays.

We started slow in the first round after game 1's but came back for a winning 1st round, we did not do well in 2cd round but came-back to finish up pretty good.

PR II GOES TO 28-7 (80%) since 1980 at winning the series when a team is better by .75 or better and holds true with teams under 53.5 rarely winning titles as Suns were 52.77.

Like to thank everyone who commented over the playoffs, hope to see everyone again next year..............untill then ...... 

@theclaw