NBA PLAYOFF TIME..........................................2021

NBA Playoffs finally are here. It's been a crazy year with all the injuries, many key players out for good periods of time. This will make it tough using advanced meterics, but in some cases we will know the teams are better then the ratings say and this might give us an edge, hopefully.

We give 4 pts to team with home court, maybe/maybe not this year with covid and fewer fans but we'll stick with what we've done over the years, so if anyone thinks home court is worth less than 4 pts then simply adjust the line as you see fit but I'll stick with the 4 pts.

I'll post Power Ratings tommorrow when I have more time.

Here's the mismatchs in all 5 key stat areas, ave per each area,  will give us an idea how each series compares as far as possible series upsets .

Jazz 3.75 over Griz

76ers 3.2 over Wiz

Nets 3.13 over Celtics

Bucks 2.45 over Heat

Nuggets 2.27 over Blazers

Clips 1.92 over Mavs

Suns 1.52 over LA

Knicks .1 over Hawks

Nets might have missed the most time from best players but still light years better than Celtics, Nets were putting up the best offensive numbers I've ever charted with all 3 players playing together. If they all play and stay healthy Nets should be a force offensively . That's a big if though.

We can see Suns are not all that big a favorite, (7th ranked mismatch out of the 8 teams),  over LA considering how much time LBJ and AD missed. Suns have played well this season and maybe they can pull the upset, wouldn't surprise me but given how much time both LBJ and AD missed and the Suns aren't all that high rated over LA will pass on playing the Suns to win series

Nuggets to win series over Blazers looks to be a very solid play, Hawks and Knicks about dead-even could be another upset but Knicks much better in most important area like Shooting efficiency and FG % MARGINS. NUGGETS MUCH BETTER THEN BLAZERS IN THOSE AREAS.

Nuggets to win series over Blazers +120 --- 2 units to win 2.4 unit

MY LINES.................................................

Bucks -9.27 over Heat 

Clippers -8.25 over Mavs

Nets -9.42 over Celtics

Nuggets -7.75 over Blazers

Looks like It's all home cooking today, we can see both Clips and Nets key players missed a good amount of time yet we still have them big over opps. Celtics players missed time as well but not close to the Nets. Blazers did have a little bit but they don't come close to matching Nuggets in PR'S who really haven't missed much with Murray out, Portis has been more efficient than Murray although Murray has a higher usage WHICH IS IMPORTANT AS WELL.

Bucks -4.5 over Heat --- 1.1 units

Clippers -5.5 over Mavs --- 1.1 units

Nets -8 over Celtics --- 2.2 units

Nuggets -1 over Blazers --- 2.2 units

Both the Nets and Nuggets are in our largest mismatch teams in which we back them every game and will mostly finish with a winning record.

@theclaw

 Clippers is not same team than Lou Williams has been trade.

Mavs as more people dangerous for shooting and they've got size compared to Clippers.

I don't trust Clippers I'm with Mavs on this one.

Don't remember a time when lines were off by this much in 1st round, seems books giving way to much credit to road teams.

1-3 ATS, lost 2.4 units

Well, the road teams did well so book was right on with the small lines. Had I given no points for home court my lines would have been much closer to the books lines. Record would of been 1-1 ATS PLUS A WIN WITH LARGEST MISMATCH ON NETS.

We'll see how that goes  but I think the home teams bounce back today.

We'll use the 4 pts again for home court..................................MY LINES...................

76ERS -11.36 over Wizards

Knicks -3.73 over Hawks

Suns -7.09 over LA

Jazz -12.69 over Griz

once again all the home teams because of the 4 pts, had we given no pts would only be 1 play on the Hawks, plus the Jazz as an largest mismatch team.

We'll see how it goes today then decide whether 4 pts is the right way to go. I supposed I should of passed untill we had a chance to see how things go as home field has proven less valuable in all the sports during covid.

Plus all the injuries this year which is a big effect on each teams ratings.

76ers -8 over WIZ --- 1.1 units

Suns -2 over LA --- 1.1 units

Knicks pk over Hawks --- 1.1 units

Jazz -9 over Grizz --- 2.2 units

Nice writeups ....

The home court this year has ZERO advantage..

Will it all of a sudden make an impact....

I went 1-1 with East Homers. 

I'm hoping today follows your trend as I've used that concept in past years for capping.

GOOD Luck today

Your PRS used to be great, really hope you find the time to post them.

GL this year.

Bucks -5 over Heat --- 1.1 units

@camby700

 So far home court is meaningless but I think home teams will be heard from in game 2  and beyond.

Interesting that we haven't seen a 20 pt blowout win by home team yet, I would think that's a bit unusual.

Bucks rolling the Heat at half, looks like 20 pt win could happen.

@aaabbbc

 Yes, get to that soon 

Nuggets -2 over Blazers --- 2.2 units

Good spot for Nuggets tonight, rare for a team to win both game 1 and 2 on the road and with such a small line a Nuggets win almost certainly gets the cover..

Bucks were in a similar spot earlier tonight with the Heat as the Bucks are a very strong home team and when the road team plays them tough in game 1 in a close game,  they generally get 1 good chance to steal a game in the first 2 , when the oppurtunity comes they need to seize the moment and get the game but the Heat failed to do that in game 1 and couldn't keep it close twice.

Clippers -6 over Mavs --- 1.1 units

Very Good spot for Clippers, once again not very likely Mavs win 2 straight road games. 

We'll have some great spots in game 3's coming up.

Now we start getting into specific spots when used with my lines we have done very well. Game 1's are not a specific spot other then a game 1 and teams that win the series do win game 1 a good amount of time, but better spots can be found with teams coming off losses, ATS losses, 2 and 3 ATS losses or wins, road teams with a game 1 SU win and various regression plays when teams win big in different spots. 

So we should rack-up  some wins. 

NUGGS

Sun ..... 1-3 ATS, lost 3.4 units

tough day with 2 games could of gone either way ATS , Knicks and 76ers but we lost both.  we need to at least break even with these type games, but remember these games do tend to even out over time so we should get some wins in other games could go either way down the road. As long as we hang about 50% in those games we should be fine.

Mon --- 2-0 ATS, won 3 units

these were the first 2 games we found some very good spots and went 2-0 ATS, there are 2 more games in this same spot coming up with Clips tonight and Jazz, we should get at least 1 win and maybe 2.

I did miss a play on the over in Bucks game as there was a big line adjustment on the under after the low scoring game 1, I just missed it as not in-touch  with everything yet, also missed the huge line adjustment in game 1 of Nets game which was pushed up 7.5 pts, but not sure if that could have been players questionable who then played, was a easy under for Nets .

Tues......MY LINES.......................game 2's we only back teams off ATS loss using my lines

Nets -9.42 over Celtics

Suns -7.09 over LA

Clips -8.25 over Mavs

Clips in a very good spot as road teams don't win 2 straight on the road very often, 6 pts is very managable . Clips have the common denominators of past champs while Mavs do not and rarely would a team lose the series in this spot. And remember Clips lost last year prematurely and they will be super motivated ton ight, not likely Mavs can match the energy since they already got what they needed which was 1 game of the first 2.

Suns off an ATS win so we would not back them using my lines, however, huge line adjustment on LA SO that's a good spot for Suns but LA needs game 2  as road teams to win series need a split in games 1 & 2 .

Possible we could play Suns but will need to see before game time how the public moves the line and other things.

Nets off an ATS win, Nets should get the win in game 2 and likely cover. Nets also a largest mismatch team in which we back them every game. Line adjusted up but not big enough to fade at this time so possible depending on the line we could pass or play the NETS.

Pending Play..............Clippers -6 over Mavs --- 1.1 units

2 large line adjustments tonight.

With the unders coming in well below the total looks like an over-reaction with the book expecting public to play under. When we get extra pts we take them.

Clippers/Mavs OVER 216 --- 1.1 

Suns/LA  OVER 208.5 --- 1.1 units

we should get at least one of these with a good shot to get both.

@theclaw

Good 'read' solid info...appreciative to your sharing technique, and methodology 

Nets -9 over Celtics --- 1.1 units

Nice Tuesday sweep. 

3-1...still a nice day.  

games ... 1-1 ATS, lost .1 units

totals .....2-0, won 2 units

we won the over in Suns/LA game based on the 6 extra pts we got for line adjustment, game 1 opened 114.5 and we got 6 pts with 208.5, we won because of those 6 extra pts BASED ON OVER-REACTION TO ALL THE UNDERS COMING IN.

Clippers are dreadful, Mavs didn't play very well in regular season, they did have some injuries and played better at towards end of season when players got healthy but the rank 11th in PR I and dead last in PR II.  Not sure Mavs are as good as they look right now except Doncic is a monster.  At this time I think Clippers will win game 3.

Nets are on another level, this team lost the most to injuries and is much better then the PR's which have the Nets 3rd in PRI and 1st in the East. Can't use PR II to judge Nets since they are a weak rebounding team, borderline championship calibre reb team. But they rank 2cd in shooting efficiency margin behind only the Jazz but without the injuries would likely be 1st, and that's important since shooting efficiency is the most important area.

Right now I'd lean to Nets game 3.

MY LINES....................................

76ers -11.36 over Wizards

Knicks -3.73 over Hawks

Jazz -12.69 over Grizz

Both Knicks and Jazz in a good spot tonight with the road team off a game 1 win and not likely road team can win both game 1 and game 2, Mavs did it but one of these teams likely wins going away with both possible.

And my lines favor both team , we need to keep in mind Jazz -12.69 is with Mitchel in the line-up, thought he'd play game 1, hopefully he is back tonight. Jazz should be able to win without him, they shot dreadful from 3 pt land game 1 much like the Bucks did but game 2 was totally different.

76ers off an ATS loss on closing line but a push off the opening line if you got it early. But could of went either way late.