Posted:
#26
76ers -8 over Wiz --- 1.1 units
Knicks -2 over Hawks --- 1.1 units
Jazz -8.5 over Grizz --- 2.2 units
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NBA PLAYOFF TIME..........................................2021
Posted:
#29
3-0 ATS, won 4 units
we got off to a rough start in game 1's going 2-6 but now are on a 8-1 run. The home teams lost game 1 SU all bounced back to not only win but cover pretty easily except the Clippers.
we have some good spots coming up in game 3's.
Jazz roll as Mitchell return and looks very good like he didn't miss a game. Jazz will handle Mavs without a problem if they go on to win series which up 2-0 should be very likely.
2
Posted:
#30
MY LINES.....................game 3's
Heat -2.73 over Bucks
LA -.91 over Suns
Blazers -.25 over Nuggets
LA is better then the rating give them credit for, but how many pts, not really sure, but 7 pts looks good to take the Suns, maybe to good, likely pass , let's see how public reacts to this line.
series tied 1-1 we don't use my lines instead we take the team to win the series if we have a clear favorite to win series.
LA/Suns...Suns had a very good year but don't have the size to handle LA, if they shoot well which they certainly capable of maybe they could win series but With Paul not 100% will pass .
Nuggets are the better team and should win the series, Blazers rank 15th in PR I and 13th in PR II , 13th in shooting efficiency margin, dead last in FG % margin and dead last in value which measures a teams play on the court VS PT margin.
1
Posted:
#31
Bucks -1.5 seems the books not giving enough credit for home court, they opened game 1 Bucks -6, so they are saying it's only a 5 to 4.5 swing for home court ? After the better teams, the home teams didn't do well in game 1's but then explode in game 2's seems the books over-reacting with the line towards the better teams, as they anticipate the public will back these teams this round.
Public on a big tear backing those teams so books adjust the line, just look at the Nets -8 at home game 1 but -7 on the road, that's crazy talk.
Bucks off a blowout win and a 2-0 series lead, I wouldn't fade Bucks off 1 big win but in this spot with the line and public backing these home teams and big on the Bucks at this point I think the play is on Heat, they should get one of the 2 home games.
Heat +1.5 over Bucks --- 1.1 units
Nuggets +4 over Blazers --- 1.1 units
1
Posted:
#35
MY LINES..............................game 3's
Celtics -2.58 over Nets
Hawks -4.27 over Knicks
Clippers - 4.25 over Mavs
teams down 2-0 receive 4 extra desperation bonus pts ( Celtics, Clips), teams tied 1-1 we don't use my lines but instead back the team to win series.
Knicks/Hawks are our closest matchup, almost dead-even, Knicks by .1 over Hawks in the ave of key stats and PR's. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either team win the series or game 3 so we pass on this game.
Nets are much better then the ratings give them credit as they missed the most time from top talent but crazy how they opened -8 in game 1 at home but are now open -7 on the road, seems to big an adjustment of the line, we can back the Nets every game as a largest mismatch team but will pass here.
Mavs were red hot on 3's shooting 47% in game 1 to Clippers 27% and over 50% in game 2 although the Clippers shot a very good 39%, Mavs not likely to sustain such great 3 pt shooting. It's not impossible just not likely and that's what we do is find good spots where we have probabilities on our side. The media has been ripping Kawhi and the Clippers now that they are down 2-0, chances are this team will feel disrespected and come super motivated to prove them wrong, and the media is off base to a degree since Mavs shot lights on on 3's so when a team shots this well of course they'll have a great chance to win both games.
I think Clippers prove the media wrong tonight with a big win.
Clippers -2 over Mavs --- 1.1 units
2
Posted:
#38
1-0 ATS, won 1 unit............................................ now on a 10-2 run
Clippers respond big-time after being disrespected in the media, guys questioning Kahwi's leadership, C Cowherd knocking George's response after game 2, one thing pro athletes are good for is responding to disrespect especially when they are very good to great players with the better teams.
Don't be surprised if Clippers come back and win this series
Celtics played very well, we did have a huge difference with my line and actual line, I haven't gone over all the info yet but I believe teams down 2-0 and back at home with a 4.5 or better difference have a very good record, we had a 10.58 difference but with all the Nets injuries Nets certainly rate higher, but how much higher, even if we gave Nets 6 extra pts we still have a 4.5 difference and those 6 extra pts would put the Nets as an all-time great team so I doubt they'd be any better then getting 6 extra pts.
That brings us to todays games with Wiz having over a 4.5 diff.
0
Posted:
#39
MY LINES ...........................FRI - games 3 and 4
Wiz -.64 over 76ers
Bucks -1.27 over Heat
Jazz -4.69 over Griz
Blazers -.25 over Nuggets
76ers off a blowout win and 1-1 ATS or 1-0-1 ATS , not the best of spots for 76ers, not terrible either, 76ers opened at home -7 and now they are -5.5 on the road ? Crazy talk right there guys, similar to Nets line VS Celtics and with a huge difference to my line and actual line being over 4.5 and down 2-0 back at home Wiz is the right play here.
Bucks up 3-0 off back to back blowout wins terrible spot for the Bucks, but in a closeout game and the better teams generally get the closeout in the first try and will cover as common for books to jack up the line in this spot which they have, opened -1 last game now -4.5. closeouts in this spot are not good plays by fading the closeout team we reap the extra pts the book is giving out, possible SU win for the Heat but don't be surprised if those extra pts get us the cover if Bucks close it out.
If the Bucks do cover that sets up the next series incredibly and with the Nets all of a sudden looking human we might just get some incredible value in that series, depends how the remaining series plays out.
Nuggets off 2-0 ATS, my line says take the Nuggets here but with Nuggets losing game 1 and needing to bring their best game to get back home court winning two straight they exerted lots of energy and effort, not a good spot for Nuggets, wouldn't be surprised to see either team win ATS.
Jazz tied 1-1, we don't use my lines but back the team to win series which clearly is the Jazz, Jazz roll again tonight, get back home court and cruise to the series win shortly after. Jazz scored 141 pts last game, that'd be the most pts scored in playoffs thus far and the game total of 270 is the highest game total in playoffs thus far. Now the books jack the line up 7.5 pts, take those free pts and grab the under.
Books lower the Bucks game total 5 pts as closeout games do tend to go under but in this spot with Bucks off big wins I'd lean the under as well and Bucks team total under but with the books making us pay 5 extra pts will pass on that one.
0
Posted:
#41
POWER RATINGS I..............................................
power rating I gives more weight to shooting efficiency and less weight to rebounding which has the highest correlation to winning games and best predictive value going forward.
1. Jazz 9.5
2. Clippers 6.51
3. Nets 6.29
4. Bucks 6.11
5. 76ers 5.95
6. Suns 5.56
7. Nuggets 3.93
8. Hawks 2.78
9. Knicks 2.51
10. Lakers 2.47
11. Mavs 2.26
12. Celtics .87
13. Heat .84
14. Grizz .81
15. Blazers .18
16. Wizards (-1.41)
POWER RATINGS II.................................................
power rating II gives more weight to balance including rebounding along with shooting efficiency
1. Jazz 55.7
2. Clippers 53.76
3. Bucks 53.65
4. 76ers 53.47
5. Nuggets 53.13
6. Suns 52.77
7. Nets 52.57
8. Lakers 51.88
9. Hawks 51.87
10. Knicks 51.4
11. Celtics 51.2
12. Grizz 51.2
13. Mavs 50.91
14. Blazers 50.62
15. Wizards 50
16. Heat 49.53
SHOOTING EFFICIENCY MARGIN....................................
we use 2 PT FG's, 3PT FG's , FT's and TO's and tells us how much each team out-shoots it's opps.
1. Jazz 3.8%
2. Nets 3.22%
3. Suns 3.12%
4. Clippers 2.86%
5. 76ers 2.77%
championship calibre play is 2.5% or better, rarely will a team win the title below 2.5% unless they are a defending champ
6. Bucks 2.15%
7. Mavs 1.46%
8. Nuggets 1.33%
9. Knicks 1.15%
10. Heat .88%
11. Lakers .78%
12. Hawks .77%
13. Blazers .36%
14. Celtics (-.02)
15. Grizz (-.05)
16. Wizards (-.55)
0
Posted:
#42
Injuries affected the Nets and Lakers the most, Nets still 3rd best in PR I, Lakers don't look so good but are much better then the ratings, how much better is anyone's quess. Clippers to some degree should be a little better, maybe 76ers who lost Embiid for some games. A number of teams coulds be a bit better so kind of even's out through the teams . Jazz lost their top scorer and kept a high rating despite the loss, actually are better in Shooting efficiency at the end of the season then they were at the all-star break. (3.48%)
Weaker rebounding teams like the Nets are better to judge by PR I UP UNTILL THE FINALS OR SOMETIMES THE CONF FINALS DEPENDING ON WHO THEY PLAY.
Suns although they were challenging for a 1 seed don't rate very high, 6th in PR I and 6th in PR II.
Bucks not as good as last season, not playing on a championship level in shooting efficiency, but they are playing on a championship level in FG % Margin at 3.1 % which is 2cd in the league and 2cd in the East to the Nets 3.5%. Bucks rank 2cd best in the East in PR I and 1st in PR II.
76ers with the no. 1 seed don't rank no. 1 in either PR in the East, they rank 2cd in shooting efficiency in the East and 3rd in FG% Margin. Not all that good for a no. 1 seed.
0
Posted:
#43
FAVORITE TO WIN THE TITLE......................................Jazz
pending futures made after 25 games through the all-star break.........................
Jazz to win Title +1200 --- 1.5 units to win 18 units
Jazz to win West +600 --- 1.5 units to win 9 units
Jazz to win Title +800 --- 1 unit to win 8 units
Jazz to win West +450 --- 1 unit to win 4.5 units
Bucks to win Title +700 --- 2 units to win 14 units
Bucks to win East +260 --- 2 units to win 5.2 units
0
Posted:
#44
games ......1-2 ATS, lost .2 units
totals .......0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units
son of a gun, made a mistake playing Jazz total, we use the opening game at each teams home court to judge the line adjustments, game 3 cannot have a line adjustment, that game sets the opening line. Didn't realize this untill this morn, oh well, every year I do make a few mistakes and do miss a few plays.
Jazz roar and get back home court.
Bucks go into serious regression, we should benefit off this in the next round.
76ers rolled big again, puts them as a fade next game and if they close it out and cover they will go into serious regression next series and we should score big in this spot backing Hawks or Knicks on the ML.
0
Posted:
#47
MY LINES.......................................GAME 4'S
Nets - 1.42 over Celtics
Hawks -4.27 over Knicks
Lakers -.91 over Suns
Clippers -.25 over Mavs
Good spot for the Nets off a SU loss, even a better spot if the Nets fail to cover today. Line seems a little inflated but Nets as a largest mismatch we back them off that not using my lines.
Hawks/Knicks to evenly matched, better value elsewhere
Lakers likely win again today as if they are winning this series which is more then likely they should hold home court then we have a great spot on Suns for game 5. Will pass ATS.
Clippers are the better team but losing 2 straight at home can be a tough chore to overcome, Clippers can do it but will pass on this game.
Nets -7.5 over Celtics --- 1.1 units
0
Posted:
#50
MY LINES.........................................game 4's
76ers -3.36 over Wiz
Jazz -4.69 over Grizz
76ers off 2 ATS blowout winners, not a good spot for them, 76ers in a closeout game generally a good spot but not here. If 76ers do cover today they become a serious regression fade for 1st game next series, we should get some great value fading them.
Jazz should get the SU win and cover today, if they happen to lose SU I'd look for them to win 2 straight and closeout the series in 6 games. Jazz playing well but not on any regression indicators against them. They are off 3 overs with a 270 pts game , most of any game this playoffs thus far and then another over , good spot for the under.
Wiz +8 over 76ers --- 1.1 units
Jazz -5.5 over Grizz --- 1.1 units
Jazz/Grizz UNDER 225 --- 1.1 units
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