NBA PLAYOFF TIME..........................................2021

Bucks -8 (-115) over Hawks --- 1.15 units

@theclaw 

Nicely done last night  & like your choice tonight mah man 

1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

Bucks came to play in game 2, too tough to hold the Bucks down in back to back home games, Bucks to good at home.

MY LINES..........................................................................

Clippers -4.95 over Suns

Line moved from Clippers +1 to Clips -1, now at -1 seems about right without Kawhi, don't think we  have any value there any longer. At Clips +1 we had some value, let's see how the line goes from here.

Clippers off 2 ATS wins is not the best of spots, not a terrible spot either just not the best of spots to back Clippers and combined that with the line moving to Clippers -1 will pass on this game but think Suns just might be the right play.

MY LINES.........................................................

Hawks -.67 over Bucks

game 3's with series tied 1-1 we don't use my lines, we back the team that should win the series if it is a strong case based on the info. Bucks should win this series.

Bucks -4.5 over Hawks --- 1.1 units

You were right.....The Suns were the right play !!!

Nice Call 

I've followed each and every one of your plays every year for the last 3 years. Keep em coming claw! 

1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

Bucks too tough in crunch-time, last series VS Nets they showed how much they learned losing past couple of years and are now a tough out in crunch-time.

MY LINES.......................................................

Suns -3.05 over Clippers

With Kawhi being out and Paul back opening line of Suns -6 is pretty close to my line. Suns off an SU & ATS win, good spot for the Suns as the team wins the series will cover 2 in a row at some point in series and Suns haven't done that yet.

However, when we get to this point with 2 very good teams, Clippers appear to be playing quite well without Kawhi, these  teams can win on the road when they need a win and with Clippers down 3-1 they definately need a win.  Clippers could win here and Suns win game 6 on the road would not surprise me at all as this is common over history with these type teams.

But we have Clippers coming back down 0-2 back to back series and that wears on a team, takes alot of focus, energy and effort to do this plus the Suns knowing the Clippers have done it twice will not want to give the Clippers any life, I thought game 4 would be the game the Suns take the life out of Clippers and they did that, so may be a bit tougher to duplicate back to back games.

Close-out games coming in game 4 or 5 are 6-0 ATS for the team looking to close-out the series this postseason.  Generally, close-out games in game 4 or 5 are  not this good ATS, I'd look for some regression which points to Clippers at least ATS. If the line was a couple pts higher might be worth a shot on Clippers.

When we add it all up to risky in my eyes, will pass on the game.

Wow the total keeps dropping. Game 1 opened 221.5 with game 5 opening 215.5 but now bet down to 212, that's 9.5 free pts off game 1 total.

If we look at how the games have gone, game 1..... 234, 2..... 211, game 3.....198 and game 4 164, wow game 4 total dropped off a cliff 34 pts off the game 3 total which was a low total comparable to the first 2 games. too much an over-reaction to these lower totals driving the number down to give us vslue on the over. 

This is more an indication  the unders have peaked at the bottom, we should see more scoring tonight.

Suns/Clippers UNDER 212 --- 1.1 units

@theclaw

 you mean over? 212

WTF !! I did mean over, geez louise, sorry about that. I posted in a hurry and had under on my mind since I was talking about the under's peaking. Just one of those things happens from time to time, aggravating to say the least.....................................

Later during the game I started thinking about maybe I posted under instead of over but it was to late and I was hoping against all hope I posted over, didn't want to look. 

Clippers came up big, not surprised. Line opened 6 but then was 5.5 when I posted about the game, then went to 6.5 when I posted the total, was thinking if it went to 7 would back the Clippers. 

These teams are very capable of winning either at home or on the road, Suns might get game 6.

MY LINES................................................

Hawks -.67 over Bucks

Bucks off 2 ATS wins including a big-blowout 33 pt win, not a good spot for the Bucks. Bucks put alot of energy and effort into getting the series lead after trailing 1-0 and getting home court back. Bucks not very good on the road, play here is on Hawks. Even With Young injury the line is to far off from my line, Young is not worth over 7 pts, he's not worth 5 pts.

Hawks +7 over Bucks --- 1.1 units 

@theclaw

Hi claw, could you maybe go back to your old posting time? (earlier) thanks, man! BOL

@theclaw

The query results have had very small sample sizes which are unreliable.

I wish you continued success.

Always try to post early but every now and then have early errands to run , but try to limit those days when games start 9pm if possible.

Ok,  thanks.

1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

Bucks couldn't match Hawks energy and focus, maybe had Freak not been injured they could have come back and won the game but maybe not as well.

Hawks clearly the more focused team and guys were shooting very well which they tend to do at home.

With Bucks back home we'll likely see a reversal of this with Bucks shooting well and Hawks may not match Bucks intensity.

Freak going down was brutal to see.  We were knocking on the door to cash East winner futures and very good possibility to win title at some great odds but now winning the title not very likely to happen if the Freak remains out.

They say no structural damage, and list him as doubtful for tonight, I wouldn't count on him this series, maybe he comes back in finals if Bucks get there, but even then seems not likely.

But the way they listed him as doubtful makes it appear he might be back at some point. They aren't saying out for playoffs, but who knows if that is games Bucks playing with opps.

At this point we just don't know.

Will have tonight's game a bit later, at doctor's now. Couple things to do after then heading home