NBA PLAYOFF TIME..........................................2021

series --- 1-0, won 2.4 units with Nuggets win.

actually wanted to play Nuggets again after game 1 loss but forgot to do it. I think was +265 

MY LINES........................................game 1's... 2cd round

Nets -4.18 over Bucks

76ers - 7.17 over Hawks

Nets better then the rating but by how much ?  Nets off 2 ATS wins but Bucks off 3 ATS wins with 2 blowout games and another big win, Bucks enter regression zone. Terrible spot for Bucks . Bucks not as good as they were last year, maybe better suited for the playoffs since they stopped relying on the Freak to barrel his way to a layup or dunk and are a bit more variety of ways to win but still not as good . Nets should win this series.

76ers should handle the Hawks without much issue assuming Embiid plays and is close to 100% ,  Hawks off 3 ATS wins, not a good spot for them at all.

Nets -4 over Bucks --- 2.2 units

Nets/Bucks UNDER 239 --- 1.1 UNITS

Bucks TT UNDER 117.5 --- 1.1 units

76ers -2.5 over Hawks --- 1.1 units

@theclaw

 Nice Hit On The Brooklyn Nets !!! 

3-0 Last Night 

Let's Go Philadelphia 76ers..... Give Claw The Sweep !!! 

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MY LINES...........................................game 1/game 7

76ers - 7.17 over Hawks

Clippers -8.25 over Mavs

76ers likely without Embiid but Hawks in a very bad spot off 3 ATS wins and 3 double digit SU wins, we likely see some regression for the Hawks today. Game 2 might be a better game to take the Hawks.

Kawhi came up huge in game 6, may be difficult for him to duplicate such a game today,  if he does Clippers will be a very good fade game 1 VS Jazz. Clippers are in a very unique spot that doesn't come up all that much,  0-3 ATS at home and they are  favored on my lines by over 1 pt to actual line, great spot for Clippers. Home teams generally win game 7's as well, Clippers are the better team and the better teams are more then capable of coming back from being down in the series and Clippers put themselves in a very good spot today, more then likely Clippers will get it done today.

Clippers -6.5 over Mavs --- 1.1 units

pending play.............    76ers -2.5 over Hawks --- 1.1 units

games ...... 1-0 ATS, won 2 units

totals ........2-0, won 2 units

Bucks had some serious regression in this game, shooting a dreadful 6 for 30 on 3's......ouch. The game was hanging right about on the number for total and Bucks team total for most of the game untill the 4th when Bucks couldn't make anything. they scored like 8  pts in 6 minutes and like 12, pts in 9 minutes. 

Griffin was incredible, if he continues to play on a high level it will be very tough to beat this team, but can't see him shooting the same way very often, but he can impact the game in other ways.  What goes up must come down as Bucks were playing on to high an unsustainable level, so let's not read to much into this although their regression may not be over just yet. But there will be some very good spots to back the Bucks before all is said and done in this series, so let's not over-react. 

Love your analytical approach...

Interesting info on the Knicks.  Knicks couldn't  shoot to save their lives so I decided to look up their offensive shooting efficiency  using 2 pt, 3pt, FT's, and TO's, well, Knicks ranked 2cd to last in offensive shooting efficiency, Hawks much better in this area.

Surprising but quess who finished last ?  wow, I couldn't believe it....................Lakers, yep Lakers, granted AD and Bron missed a good amount of time, AD missed half the games, but still this pretty much tells us about their supporting cast, the worst offensive efficiency team in the playoffs while Suns were one of the best, 2cd to only the Nets.

I don't really pay alot of attention to off or def  , just margin, but a team is not going to advance very deep with a poor offense. May have to look into this as it could be a big important indicator not to back poor off teams and could tell us teams over-rated by beating poor off teams.

That leads us to Hawks/76ers series, Hawks looked pretty impressive but against the 2cd worst offensive team ? Had AD and Bron played more games Knicks would be dead last, maybe that impressive play by the Hawks is not so impressive after-all.

I would suspect that early in the playoffs offense is more important but the deep you go when the remaining teams are all good teams then defense because more important.

Nuggets and Blazers were almost dead-even in offensive efficiency, Blazers very slightly better by .23%, hardly meaningful, but this might surprise some people who thought Blazers with Dame and CJ were better offensively then the Nuggets.

Clippers/Mavs OVER 211.5 --- 1.1 units

these teams off 3 straight unders with Mavs scoring under 100 pts in 2 of 3 games while previously scoring 108 or better in 3 straight games and 113 in 2 of previous 3.

Now the book adjusts the line down from 222 open in game 1 to this number 10.5 pts adjustment, to big an over-reaction to the 3 straight unders, I'll take these extra pts any day in this spot.

games 1-1 ATS, lost .1 units

totals 1-0, won 1 unit

most years we do see a team or teams play much better then they rate, last year was the Heat. Hawks look like they could be the team this year, with Embiid not 100% of course will only help Hawks play better then they rate.

Was hoping Mavs would win as Jazz would cruise into the finals if that happened , they can beat the Clippers but it certainly will be a much tougher on them, but hey, I thought Clips were the right play and we did get the win.

@theclaw

 2-1 on the day 

Keep Up The Good Work !!!

MY LINES...........................................

Nets -4.18 over Bucks

Suns -5.63 over Nuggets

With Harden out the Nets rating is likely to be more accurate as the big 3 rarely played together in regular season in which the ratings are based on. Clearly my lines favors the Nets. Game 2's we only back teams off a ATS loss though.

Nets off a SU & ATS win plus 2 SU & ATS wins last series, that's 3 straight, not a good spot for the Nets.  Bucks not in the best of spots themselves coming off to many big wins even though they lost SU & ATS game 1 they could still regress some more. This  will bring up a very good spot in game 3, will pass on this game.

Suns off 3 ATS wins and a big blowout 30 pt win, bad spot for the Suns. Nuggets off 2 ATS wins with a double OT game, not the best of spots but not the worst either.

Suns the better team, Suns better by 1.79% in shooting efficiency the area with highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value looking forward. Suns the right play to win this series, but not in a good spot for them game 1. Will back the Suns to win series and add to the play if Suns lose SU game 1.

Nuggets +4.5 over Suns --- 1.1 units

Suns to win Series -205 --- 2.05 units to win 1 unit

1 Game Down In The Suns Series.....3 To Go 

Phoenix Suns shot very well as you predicted !!!  

games .....0-1 ATS, lost 1.1 units

Wow, huge line movement on the Bucks, public pushed the line from Nets -2 to Bucks -2, a 4 pt move, crazy.  Game 3 would of been a much better spot to take the Bucks, we'll see if public goes the other way now and backs the Nets.

MY LINES.................................

76ERS -7.17 OVER Hawks

Jazz -6.99 over Clippers

Hawks off 4 SU & ATS wins , terrible spot, 76ers off a game 1 loss needing a win and in a situation where the road team rarely can win 2 straight. Right play is on 76ers.

Jazz off 4 SU & ATS wins, not a good spot for Jazz but Jazz off a game 1 loss last series and teams as strong as Jazz rarely lose back to back game 1's. Clippers off 2 SU & ATS wins and after trailing 3-2 in series needing to come up big winning both games 6 & 7 to advance. Kawhi came up huge after the media disrespected him which brought out his huge performances, not likely Clippers coming off this very tough spot can match the Jazz energy and effort, and Clippers only need to split games 1 & 2, they don't have to win both but the Jazz do or they'll need a road win to advance.

Neither  team is in a great spot here, would lean more to Jazz winning and covering but will pass on this game.

76ers -6 over Hawks --- 1.1 units

76ers/Hawks UNDER 223.5 --- 1.1 units

Jazz/Clippers UNDER 220.5 --- 1.1 units 

@theclaw

 Tailed your picks mate. Went 2-1. Got jazz/lac under 221 push in my books. Looking forward to your next plays  

yea, total went to 221 then to 221.5  unfortunately I post early morning before work and got about the worst total. 2cd time that got me by half a point.

games --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

totals --- 1-1, lost .1 units

didn't see the end of Jazz game but Jazz hung on for the win after playing pretty bad, great win for Jazz. Clippers shot the higher  FG% AND HIGHER 3PT FG % while making just 1 less 3 as Jazz usually take far more 3's then opp but lost the game. Jazz missed 20 straight shots at one point, most in a very long time but still won the game. Donavon was unstoppable in the 2cd half.

Jazz have a great chance to win game 2 and if they do Clippers aren't coming back. This Jazz team is not the Mavs.

Brutal half pt loss on the under, got about the worst of the totals posting in the  morning, we did get the under in Philly game which we could of lost that as well so things even out but getting the best line is one thing you can control somewhat, you can't control how games go or end .

MY LINES.......................................

Suns -5.63 over Nuggets

Suns off 4 ATS win with a 30 pt blow-out win , bad, bad spot, Nuggets before game 1 were off a 2-2 series and then a 2 OT game with a 7 pt hard fought win then close-out series in game 6, not the best of spots coming into game 1,  now off a loss and trailing in the series, very good spot to back the Nuggets. 

Nuggets +6 over Suns --- 2.2 units

Nuggets ML +210 --- 1 unit to win 2.6 units

possible we could add a totals play but let's sit tight and wait-out the line. Game starts later so I will have plenty of time to post after work or I could post during the day if I check on the line.