NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

With Jimmy out no leans. Line seems about right.

3-0, won 2.5 units

season 6-4, won 2.2 units

Now on a 5-0 run. Nice to at least get back to a winning record.

Nuggets  hang on for the SU win and take back home court. Sets them up to win this series

I like Clippers game  4 to win SU at least. Let's see how the game opens.

@theclaw

@theclaw

 Nuggets won on Gordon slam to tie series 2-2;

How can it set up the Clippers to win game 4 at least?

Not busting chops here as I love reading your angles etc..just curious?

MY LINES .................Sunday

Pistons -3.16 over Knicks

Celtics -5.2 over Magic

Bucks -5.07 over Pacers

Twolves -3.41over LA

Pistons off a tough close loss. The line has big line adjustment from game 3 but this line adjustment is justified based on the totality of the situation.

Pistons are the play here. 

Celtics off a SU loss and 2 ATS losses VS a team that is terrible shooting efficiency (-.99%).

My Line favors Magic but with Cavs nearing a sweep Celtics can't lose this game.

I'd lean Celtics here but will pass based on my line.

Twolves, same story as game 3.

If Twolves are to win this series they should get the SU win and with a small number of only -2.5 a win pretty much will = a cover.

With evenly matched series, and I think many overreacting to Luka beating Twolves last season and knowing how much people love to back proven winners I'd side with a Twolves win and cover.

Bucks down 1-2 and at home. My line favors Bucks but not enough to make a play.

This series is pretty evenly matched with Bucks a better based on PR I.

In this situation the series should play out evenly matched so I'd lean Bucks here to tie the series. 

If line drops I could back the Bucks.

The total has dropped to 226.5, if it drops some more I'll back the over.

Off 1 under and 2-1 unders this series. With both unders being by over 10 pts so now we see a line adjustment. 

If we look at the scores. Bucks scored 115 and 117 in 2 of 3 games.

Pacers scored 123 and 115 in 2 of 3 games. 

They both are scoring pts just not in the same game other then the one over game.

Pacer up 2-0 with Bucks down 0-2 urgency in game 3 was on the Bucks. Same urgency will be on the Bucks game 4 but Pacers off a loss Will come with a bigger game .

Pistons -2 over Knicks --- .55 units

My bad, I was thinking Nuggets up 2-1.

At 2-2 it's  a different story...............

Thanks for pointing that out ...........

Bucks -3.5 over Pacers --- .55 units

I still lean OVER , line did drop to 224 but back to 226.5. Will pass on any action.

0-2, lost 1.1 units

season --- 6-6, won 1.1 units

Another close brutal loss for Piston. They can't seem to close out these games 

Bucks lost Dame with what might be pretty bad injury. Not sure how much that affected the team but they were pretty pathetic.

I did hit the Over and Twolves and Celtics did get it done.

Crazy went 3-2 but 0-2 on plays I made.

MY LINES ......................Monday

Cavs -4.74 over Heat

Warriors -2.66 over Rockets .....without Jimmy

Warriors -4.91 ..... with Jimmy

Cavs in a closeout game. Closeout games we don't use my lines.

Cavs off a big blowout win, strong teams like the Cavs off only 1 big blowout win are good teams to back.

Cavs being the 2cd ranked team with a very good shooting efficiency  margin of 4.6% are very good to back in closeout games. However games 4 and 5 are not the best games to back them but here in this spot I'd back Cavs.

With Pacers up 3-1 and Dame out the Cavs Will want to wrap up this series, get extra rest then the Pacers. Although they don't really need it but teams look for any advantage they can get especially considering Celtics on deck after Pacers.

If Warriors are to win this series more then likely they win game 4.  Rockets are not very good especially as a 2 seed but the Warriors without Jimmy aren't  very good either. 

If Jimmy is out again I'd consider backing Rockets if line moves up some.

Cavs -8.5 over Heat --- 1.1 units

Go Cavs!  Freeze the Heat.

1-0, won 1 unit

season --- 7-6, won 2.1 units

Incredible Cavs beat OKC's 51 pt defeat with their own 55 pt beatdown.

Not surprised to see these big blowouts since both Cavs and OKC rated out very strong with both over 9 in PR I. But over 50 pts wins are indeed a little ridiculous. 

Rockets got the cover  even with Jimmy back.

MY LINES .................Tuesday

Celtics -13.2 over Magic

Knicks -4.84 over Pistons

Pacers -1.93 over Bucks

Nuggets -4.8 over Clippers 

We have 3 teams in closeout games . We don't use my lines in closeout games.

We back the stronger teams, especially  those with common denominators  of past champs. Celtics being just that and the only team of the 3.

In more evenly matched series  it is more likely the team will not close it out on the first try.

Celtics also have a line adjustment with line  in game 1 -13.5 and now -11.5.

I haven't looked into any injuries yet though.

Play is on the Celtics

Pacers -8 or -7.5 is to many pts , I'd lean Bucks.

Dame not worth that many pts. 

Knicks/Pistons I'll pass.

Clippers are better with Kawhi back but not by 4 or 5 pts. 

Play is on the Nuggets.

And a ridiculous large line adjustment on the total from game 1 in Denver. Covers has game 1 at 225 and now it is 208, crazy.

I didn't  get the game 1 so I'll  go off covers line but game 2 was 217.5 even off game 2 the adjustment  is ridiculous. 

Play is on the OVER.

Nuggets +2 over Clippers --- 1.1 units

 Nuggets/Clippers OVER 208 --- 1.1 UNITS

Celtics -11.5 over Magic --- .55 units

I see Holiday out.

I made a mistake backing Nuggets.

Series tied 2-2 we don't use my lines but back the team to win the series.

If we give Clippers the 2.25 pts Luka was worth Clippers would be the better team by a good amount.

Also Luka worth 1.83 pts in PR II which is more balance rewarding rebounding  more.

Kawhi is the 2cd best rebounder on Clippers. Clippers already .1 better without Kawhi additional pts makes Clippers much better.

Better in both PR's by  more then 1 pt I'd have to favor Clippers to win game 5. With only -2 a win = a cover.

I am only giving a rough estimate to Kawhi's worth, I dont know for sure. But we can't rule out He could be worth that much and more or he could be worth less . To much of a guessing game to take action on this game.

I'll  buy off onto Clippers and I found a better line so opens possibility of a push and a win.

Still liking the OVER

Clippers -1.5 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units