NBA 2008-09, Week 6 thread...

Random thoughts:

I told myself that when my 5-game losing streak ended on my #1 sides, I would blindly bet my #1 sides at Level 2 every game until I lose again...Well, I chickened out yet again, and didn't do it last night, and Boston did cover that big line...Anyway...

Thursday:

Phoe/Dal -- no line, no opinions yet...What I do know is that PHOE is 5-0 to the Over on back-ends of back-to-backs this season and 3-2 ATS...Always that "default" play to the Over for Nationally televised games unless evidence points you in the other direction, according to some people...

SA/Den -- Nuggets favored by 4 and the line will probably climb and maybe get to 5...My first blush reaction (within a micro-second of looking at the line) was "Wow, that line is too damn low, Denver will cover that easily"...But then the handicapping part of the brewers7 brain took over the analysis of the game and what we have here is:

1) a revenge spot for the Spurs after suffering a beat-down at Home to the Nuggets on 11/19, 81-71, but the Spurs trailed by 21 going into the 4Q...

2) Denver shot 59.8% from the field their last game, a 39-point butchering over Toronto at Home, and I have an "automatic fade of a team that shot 60% or higher their previous game" and this is close enough...

3) Public will be all over Denver as they are hot and the Spurs have gotten beat pretty bad their last 2 games (at HOU and at Home vs. Detroit)...

So when I consider some of these factors, I kind of like the Spurs now, being in a bounce-back and revenge spot...Not sure if I'll bet them yet, but I will certainly wait for the line to rise and then make a decision...

Random thoughts:

Ok, I have no balls at all...Am heating up and knew that once that #1 sides losing streak ended after 5, it would reverse itself, because I have seen this pattern over and and over again over the years of tracking my picks...This is something I highly recommend to any serious cappers who want to make money at this in the long run...I told myself to play my #1 sides at Level 2 every day AFTER the streak was snapped and I only played BOS at Level 1 and then didn't play SA at all...I am an idiot, a baffoon, a moron...No guts...

LAL/Was -- Lakers end a quick 3-game eastern swing before heading back to Staples after tonight...Wiz have covered 2 straight for the first time this season...Lake-show should be able to name the score here, but these lines will reach a saturation point I would suspect, some time soon as they won't be able to keep covering this big chalk forever...Lakers Over 6 straight while Wiz 3-0-1 to the Under last 4...Wiz won't be able to score with them, but maybe they'll try and we get another Over...

OKC/Orl -- ORL won 6 straight h2h in this series, covering 4 straight & 5 of 6...OKC has covered 5 of 6 after a NC6 (chart-stuff there), and OKC Over 3 straight...

Min/NJ -- Nets have had 2 days to shake off that home blowout vs. the Wiz after a good road trip...Minny on a NC5 now, losing 3 straight...Minny has covered 8 of the last 9 h2h in this series, however...No opinions really, which means, I'll take the points as the default pick...

NY/Atl -- no line...Knicks seem to have more distractions than a newbie at the Bunny Ranch...Harrington awaiting word on a suspension or a fine for decking LeBron and since the King is the show-piece of the league right now, I assume the NBA office will "have LeBron's back" and give Al a one-game suspension here so others won't follow suit with future flagrant fouls against King James...With D'Antoni the new coach of the Knicks this year, all trends against the Knicks previous to this season are completely thrown out the window...Irrelevant...What is relevant is how teams have done against Phoenix the last few seasons when D'Antoni was coach there...Not with the sides, because PHOE was MUCH better the last few seasons than NY is now, talent-wise, but I look at the totals, because talent doesn't matter too much with totals when you compare it to the pace of the games..."Pace of the game trumps talent"...I have been doing this all year with Knicks totals, and for this game, we see that ATL has gone Over 5 of the last 6 vs. D'Antoni-run PHOE squads, so I like the Over once the line comes out...

Ind/Cle -- How about this stretch for the Pacers?...The 3 best teams in the league for 4 straight games, and they were at ORL before these 4...They lost at ORL on a back-ender (4 of 5, even), then beat the Lakers on a last-second tip-in, then go to Boston, now go to CLE tonight and then host Boston yet AGAIN in 2 days...Just SICK...Indy already played CLE on 11/7 at CLE, lost by 4, but covered...CLE had covered 7 straight h2h before that game and has won 8 straight h2h in this series...CLE has covered 6 straight overall...CLE Under 4 straight while Indy Over 4 straight and 6 of 7, so a clash there...

Phi/Det -- The Under jumps out right away here...3 of the 4 games in the regular season h2h last year went Under...DET Under 7 of 8 overall...Philly 3-1-3 to the Under their last 7 in regulation time...DET off a big win...Philly is facing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year for the first time this season and that "revenge" spot has worked out decently thus far this season...8.5 might be a lot for a DET team who may be in a let-down spot after a big win at SA...

Port/Bos -- Again, the Under jumps out here immediately...BOS has won 6 straight and covered 7 straight vs. PORT h2h, but it looks like it is just about time to throw some of these PORT trends out the window as they are emerging as a major force in the league this year...For the record, 5 of the last 6 Over h2h here...BOS Over their last 2 home games...PORT 6-0-1 to the Under their last 7 and 5-1 to the Under this season in all instances of their 3rd game in 4 days...BOS Over 2 straight for the 1st time this season and they only reached 3 consecutive Overs or more 3 times (I believe, last season, none of those streaks happening on the same homestand)...Is PORT capable of making a statement in thi spot??...

LAC/Memp -- Clips have covered 7 of last 8 h2h here...MEMP on a NC7, while Clips have covered 4 straight and 6 of 8 after a 1-9 ATS start (quasi-chart plays there)...Haven't seen many MEMP games lately, so I don't know why they are in this funk but could surmise it's a young team hitting an early wall...They'll snap out of it for a while at some point and then hit another wall later in the season, maybe even 2 more walls...Not sure why Coach Iavaroni (who was an Assistant under D'Antoni at PHOE) doesn't install the D'Antoni offense with the athletes he has there in MEMP...Grizz 3-0-1 to the Over last 4 while Clips 3-1 to the Over last 4...

GS/Hou -- 7 of the last 8 in this series have gone Over...Warriors with 3 days rest for the first time this season...GS Over 3 of 5 last year with 3 days rest or more (one missing a 4th Over by 1/2 a point) and 4 of 5 of those games were Over in the 1Q...GS way Over their last 2 and Over 9 of their last 11 and HOU is now Over 3 straight and 6 of 7...These 2 teams h2h Over 3 straight and 7 of 8...HOU paces have been quicker recently and I cannot help but think that if that continues tonight, the Over won't be any problem...I like GS Overs in the 1Q, but HOU, despite being Over the game total 6 of the last 7, have been Under in the 1Q in most of those games...No 1Q bet for sure...

Char/Milw -- CHAR Over 2 straight games for the first time this season (and I missed taking that last Over, which was stupid, because I saw it coming)...CHAR has some Overs coming here after a plethora of Unders to start the season...CHAR has also won 2 straight for the first time all season...CHAR didn't cover last time out to end their C5...

Tor/Utah -- Jay Triano takes over for Sam Mitchell and "the new coach's first game this season after a firing" is 2-0 ATS and both games went Over...Toronto on a NC6...This spot shapes up well for TOR, IMO...I like taking good teams after a 30+ point blowout loss...New coach to boot...New coach promises up-tempo...Not sure if that means jumping on the Over here because Utah is so banged up and suddenly slowing the pace with 3 straight Unders...But when a new coach takes over, it is next-to-impossible to put in a new defensive system in one practice, so the Over makes sense, especially when the team with the fired coach generally will come out with a lot of energy for that first game...

BET:

Level 1 -- Toronto Raptors +5 $250 to win $250 -- Again, I played this at MatchBook...Already talked about this one...Jay Triano takes over for Sam Mitchell and "the new coach's first game this season after a firing" is 2-0 ATS and both games went Over...Toronto on a NC6...This spot shapes up well for Toronto...I like taking good teams after a 30+ point blowout loss...New coach to boot...When a team plays their first game with a new coach, they generally will come out with a lot of energy for that first game...Thought about the moneyline, but I'll take the points with no juice, instead...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...