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My Heat Moneyline Strategy

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Views: 3200
Posts: 37
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jun, 2013
Posts: 66
Posted: #26

Bator, I'm somewhat surprised at this seemingly knee-jerk reaction of yours. I'm not sure its clear to me why you are backing off.

I know the Spurs not turning the ball over is buoyed by the 3pt shooting by the Heat....but the Heat were expected to shoot better after being shut down by the best 3pt defense in the league. I don't think anyone expected Parker to not turn the ball over, expecially when everyone was expecting them to be rusty. So to me it is conceivable for the Heat to conitue to shoot well from beyond the arch but I don't think we'll see Parker play to that level (not turning the ball over). Voulgaris mentioned he liked the Spurs for the series but also acknowledged that these sorts of games are almost coin flips. I sorta agree with him. With Joey C back in the saddle these next couple games (I presume) my hunch is the Spurs won't sweep the Heat

 
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Posted: #27
OP, if you knew that the Spurs/Heat will be 1-1 after Game two, why didn't you just bang out the Spurs on the ML twice?!  All they had to do was win once.  You're gonna get your hole opened once Miami goes down 2-0 and you were going to lose what you were going to lose anyway. 
 
Legend
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

I think the Heat might have this wrapped up in as little as 5 games.  If the Spurs don't take one of the first two, they might even get swept.




Wait, hold on - did I just read on ESPN.com that LeBron spoke publicly yesterday about wanting to get revenge on the Spurs for celebrating a series sweep in Cleveland six years ago?  So LeBron's been carrying a chip on his shoulder about that for six years??  And now he has homecourt advantage, the superior team, and the Spurs superstars are all six years grayer??


Yes, this might be a short series.






What a square.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #29
what is a square?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #30
Hope you folks grabbed Heat series price after game 1.  Before games 1 and 2 I saw it anywhere between +110 and -110.  I averaged down and got them at +100. 

New series lines:
Heat -145
Spurs +120

I tweaked my strategy a bit from Post 1 above but same overall plan.  I decided that +100 Heat series price was too good to just pass up and put my last 1/3rd on it so I instead put the same amount on +100 as I had on -200.  So my average Heat series price is now -150. 

So I'm sitting at -005 worse than the current odds than can be had right now.  However, I effectively purchased the -005 for the risk to not miss out on the Heat altogether when I took -200 before Game 1.  To me, well worth it and this has played out just about exactly how I planned.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:







Wow.  I'm sorry, but that just seems like suicide on top of a big mistake.

Still think it was a big mistake?   Buying over time to capture value is just smart betting.  It's not doubling down, it's about getting a better price.
 
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Posted: #32
Heat might win the next two games.

MrBator seems to have something personal about the Heat based on his responses when they played the Pacers.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #33
I'm not claiming to be or trying to be a capper, but I have been quite successful betting the playoffs this year, especially the finals.  If you would have followed my recommendation, you could have averaged down your Heat series price to about -133 after game 2, which is where I'm at.  I've also been recommending to play the trend of the Heat always bouncing back after a SU loss, but as shown on other threads, I always recommend doing max bets on the Heat ML instead of ATS.  That turned out to be another profitable decision last night as Miami couldn't cover the spread.  My book is showing Miami -260 moneyline for game 7 and it's time to MAX BET that again.
 
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Posted: #34
Congrats to all Heat bettors!  Hopefully some of you took my advice here and got an average series price of -133 and max bet Heat moneylines for games 2, 4, 6, 7.  What a profitable NBA Finals!
 
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Posted: #35
well done brother



 
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Posted: #36

Nostradamus over here! Thats some good predicting there.

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by bizkilla:

Nostradamus over here! Thats some good predicting there.


Hah.  Thanks, but not trying to be a great predictor really.  I was extremely confident the Heat would win the series for reasons I listed above.  The four ML bets were just decisions made after reading the flow of the series.  The Heat ALWAYS bounce back after a loss and always play well when they MUST play well.  When you have must wins on Miami's home court (game 2 and 6) that's a pretty safe bet.  Game 4 was just about a must win too, even though on the road I knew Miami would play strong.  Then game 7 is Game 7 and the away team has only won I think twice in the history of NBA Finals Game 7s, ad LeBron just wasn't going to let his team lose that game.   The way the series played out, Miami was put into a position to respond four times and that's where they are at their best.  I'll put my money on Miami playing with their backs against the wall all day, and that's what I did.  Worked out well!
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