Like others, I think Spurs will get 1 of 2 in Miami. Many people who think this might want to wait until after game 2 to bet the Heat series to get a better price than -210. Don't. There's too great of a risk of Miami winning both games 1 and 2 and missing out on a reasonable Miami series price of -210 altogether. If Heat are up 2-0 after 2 games, series price is probably around -500 or more and you'll have missed the boat.
Instead, take whatever amount you planned to bet on Heat series after game 2, and bet 2/3rds of it on -210 Heat series before game 1. Then if we're fortunate enough for the Spurs to win one of the first two games, put the last 1/3rd on the Heat around -180. This averages down your series price to somewhere just under -200 which a very good bet IMO even if the series is tied 1-1, and eliminates the risk of missing out on a Heat series win bet altogether.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Like others, I think Spurs will get 1 of 2 in Miami. Many people who think this might want to wait until after game 2 to bet the Heat series to get a better price than -210. Don't. There's too great of a risk of Miami winning both games 1 and 2 and missing out on a reasonable Miami series price of -210 altogether. If Heat are up 2-0 after 2 games, series price is probably around -500 or more and you'll have missed the boat.
Instead, take whatever amount you planned to bet on Heat series after game 2, and bet 2/3rds of it on -210 Heat series before game 1. Then if we're fortunate enough for the Spurs to win one of the first two games, put the last 1/3rd on the Heat around -180. This averages down your series price to somewhere just under -200 which a very good bet IMO even if the series is tied 1-1, and eliminates the risk of missing out on a Heat series win bet altogether.
Instead, take whatever amount you planned to bet on Heat series after game 2, and bet 2/3rds of it on -210 Heat series before game 1. Then if we're fortunate enough for the Spurs to win one of the first two games, put the last 1/3rd on the Heat around -180.
As a Heat -210 series bettor, will you really consider yourself "fortunate" if the Heat lose one of their first two home games???
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Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:
Instead, take whatever amount you planned to bet on Heat series after game 2, and bet 2/3rds of it on -210 Heat series before game 1. Then if we're fortunate enough for the Spurs to win one of the first two games, put the last 1/3rd on the Heat around -180.
As a Heat -210 series bettor, will you really consider yourself "fortunate" if the Heat lose one of their first two home games???
As a Heat -210 series bettor, will you really consider yourself "fortunate" if the Heat lose one of their first two home games???
YES, ABSOLUTELY. Then we can load up more at a cheaper series price and average down to about -195 across the two bets, without losing much confidence at all in the Heat winning the series even if they lose 1 of the first 2.
Why you ask? The 2-3-2 format kills the Spurs. Even if San Antonio takes 1 of the first two, they WILL NOT beat the Heat 3 times in a row. I don't care if it's in San Antonio for those 3 games, Miami does not lose 3 in a row (or possible 4 in a row if Spurs take game 2). So, absolute best case scenario for the Spurs after 5 games is up 3-2. Then they still have to beat Miami, in Miami, when the Heat are in a win-or-go-home scenario? I don't like those odds if I'm a Spurs guy.
If the Heat happen to win the first two, well then hey I've still bet 2/3 of my allocated money on Heat series -210 and that's basically a winning ticket at that point if Miami is up 2-0.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
As a Heat -210 series bettor, will you really consider yourself "fortunate" if the Heat lose one of their first two home games???
YES, ABSOLUTELY. Then we can load up more at a cheaper series price and average down to about -195 across the two bets, without losing much confidence at all in the Heat winning the series even if they lose 1 of the first 2.
Why you ask? The 2-3-2 format kills the Spurs. Even if San Antonio takes 1 of the first two, they WILL NOT beat the Heat 3 times in a row. I don't care if it's in San Antonio for those 3 games, Miami does not lose 3 in a row (or possible 4 in a row if Spurs take game 2). So, absolute best case scenario for the Spurs after 5 games is up 3-2. Then they still have to beat Miami, in Miami, when the Heat are in a win-or-go-home scenario? I don't like those odds if I'm a Spurs guy.
If the Heat happen to win the first two, well then hey I've still bet 2/3 of my allocated money on Heat series -210 and that's basically a winning ticket at that point if Miami is up 2-0.
YES, ABSOLUTELY. Then we can load up more at a cheaper series price and average down to about -195 across the two bets, without losing much confidence at all in the Heat winning the series even if they lose 1 of the first 2.
Why you ask? The 2-3-2 format kills the Spurs. Even if San Antonio takes 1 of the first two, they WILL NOT beat the Heat 3 times in a row. I don't care if it's in San Antonio for those 3 games, Miami does not lose 3 in a row (or possible 4 in a row if Spurs take game 2). So, absolute best case scenario for the Spurs after 5 games is up 3-2. Then they still have to beat Miami, in Miami, when the Heat are in a win-or-go-home scenario? I don't like those odds if I'm a Spurs guy.
[/Quote
And I don't like those odds if I'm a Heat -195 series bettor needing these idiots to take both Games 6 & 7 at home. If the Heat return to Miami down 3-2, I predict they'll watch the visitors celebrate on their home floor for the second time in the last three Junes. The Heat, in my opinion, must have the lead should the series return to Miami or they'll really be up against it.
I don't have a prediction for the series (yet), but I think the Heat might have this wrapped up in as little as 5 games. If the Spurs don't take one of the first two, they might even get swept.
Wait, hold on - did I just read on ESPN.com that LeBron spoke publicly yesterday about wanting to get revenge on the Spurs for celebrating a series sweep in Cleveland six years ago? So LeBron's been carrying a chip on his shoulder about that for six years?? And now he has homecourt advantage, the superior team, and the Spurs superstars are all six years grayer??
Yes, this might be a short series.
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[Quote: Originally Posted by HoosierBettor]
YES, ABSOLUTELY. Then we can load up more at a cheaper series price and average down to about -195 across the two bets, without losing much confidence at all in the Heat winning the series even if they lose 1 of the first 2.
Why you ask? The 2-3-2 format kills the Spurs. Even if San Antonio takes 1 of the first two, they WILL NOT beat the Heat 3 times in a row. I don't care if it's in San Antonio for those 3 games, Miami does not lose 3 in a row (or possible 4 in a row if Spurs take game 2). So, absolute best case scenario for the Spurs after 5 games is up 3-2. Then they still have to beat Miami, in Miami, when the Heat are in a win-or-go-home scenario? I don't like those odds if I'm a Spurs guy.
[/Quote
And I don't like those odds if I'm a Heat -195 series bettor needing these idiots to take both Games 6 & 7 at home. If the Heat return to Miami down 3-2, I predict they'll watch the visitors celebrate on their home floor for the second time in the last three Junes. The Heat, in my opinion, must have the lead should the series return to Miami or they'll really be up against it.
I don't have a prediction for the series (yet), but I think the Heat might have this wrapped up in as little as 5 games. If the Spurs don't take one of the first two, they might even get swept.
Wait, hold on - did I just read on ESPN.com that LeBron spoke publicly yesterday about wanting to get revenge on the Spurs for celebrating a series sweep in Cleveland six years ago? So LeBron's been carrying a chip on his shoulder about that for six years?? And now he has homecourt advantage, the superior team, and the Spurs superstars are all six years grayer??
YES, ABSOLUTELY. Then we can load up more at a cheaper series price and average down to about -195 across the two bets, without losing much confidence at all in the Heat winning the series even if they lose 1 of the first 2.
Why you ask? The 2-3-2 format kills the Spurs. Even if San Antonio takes 1 of the first two, they WILL NOT beat the Heat 3 times in a row. I don't care if it's in San Antonio for those 3 games, Miami does not lose 3 in a row (or possible 4 in a row if Spurs take game 2). So, absolute best case scenario for the Spurs after 5 games is up 3-2. Then they still have to beat Miami, in Miami, when the Heat are in a win-or-go-home scenario? I don't like those odds if I'm a Spurs guy.
[/Quote
And I don't like those odds if I'm a Heat -195 series bettor needing these idiots to take both Games 6 & 7 at home. If the Heat return to Miami down 3-2, I predict they'll watch the visitors celebrate on their home floor for the second time in the last three Junes. The Heat, in my opinion, must have the lead should the series return to Miami or they'll really be up against it.
I don't have a prediction for the series (yet), but I think the Heat might have this wrapped up in as little as 5 games. If the Spurs don't take one of the first two, they might even get swept.
Wait, hold on - did I just read on ESPN.com that LeBron spoke publicly yesterday about wanting to get revenge on the Spurs for celebrating a series sweep in Cleveland six years ago? So LeBron's been carrying a chip on his shoulder about that for six years?? And now he has homecourt advantage, the superior team, and the Spurs superstars are all six years grayer??
Yes, this might be a short series.
I wouldn't be terribly worried if the Heat were down 3-2 in this series going back to Miami. This Heat team and this Lebron won't lose an elimination game on their home court. No way. My point was that the Spurs could have a great 5 games, best case scenerio they're up 3-2.... and they still have to close out LeBron on his home floor? It just won't happen. I WOULD like Miami to drop 1 of 2 to start the series to average down get a better price before game 3. I would not particularly like the Heat to be down 3-2 after 5, although I almost certainly would put more on Heat series bet if that happened.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:
YES, ABSOLUTELY. Then we can load up more at a cheaper series price and average down to about -195 across the two bets, without losing much confidence at all in the Heat winning the series even if they lose 1 of the first 2.
Why you ask? The 2-3-2 format kills the Spurs. Even if San Antonio takes 1 of the first two, they WILL NOT beat the Heat 3 times in a row. I don't care if it's in San Antonio for those 3 games, Miami does not lose 3 in a row (or possible 4 in a row if Spurs take game 2). So, absolute best case scenario for the Spurs after 5 games is up 3-2. Then they still have to beat Miami, in Miami, when the Heat are in a win-or-go-home scenario? I don't like those odds if I'm a Spurs guy.
[/Quote
And I don't like those odds if I'm a Heat -195 series bettor needing these idiots to take both Games 6 & 7 at home. If the Heat return to Miami down 3-2, I predict they'll watch the visitors celebrate on their home floor for the second time in the last three Junes. The Heat, in my opinion, must have the lead should the series return to Miami or they'll really be up against it.
I don't have a prediction for the series (yet), but I think the Heat might have this wrapped up in as little as 5 games. If the Spurs don't take one of the first two, they might even get swept.
Wait, hold on - did I just read on ESPN.com that LeBron spoke publicly yesterday about wanting to get revenge on the Spurs for celebrating a series sweep in Cleveland six years ago? So LeBron's been carrying a chip on his shoulder about that for six years?? And now he has homecourt advantage, the superior team, and the Spurs superstars are all six years grayer??
Yes, this might be a short series.
I wouldn't be terribly worried if the Heat were down 3-2 in this series going back to Miami. This Heat team and this Lebron won't lose an elimination game on their home court. No way. My point was that the Spurs could have a great 5 games, best case scenerio they're up 3-2.... and they still have to close out LeBron on his home floor? It just won't happen. I WOULD like Miami to drop 1 of 2 to start the series to average down get a better price before game 3. I would not particularly like the Heat to be down 3-2 after 5, although I almost certainly would put more on Heat series bet if that happened.
Alright Heat series bettors we got the value we wanted. I got Heat series price of -200 last night and will load up the other third of my allocated money on Heat Even Money to win the series right now. I saw them at +110 earlier but didn't grab it.
Either way, we figured there was a good change the Spurs would take 1 of 2 in Miami which would give us the opportunity to average down the price. I'll be at an average price of +166 on Heat series, compared to the -225 which is what it opened at. Pretty good bargain for not losing much confidence that Miami will win the series.
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Alright Heat series bettors we got the value we wanted. I got Heat series price of -200 last night and will load up the other third of my allocated money on Heat Even Money to win the series right now. I saw them at +110 earlier but didn't grab it.
Either way, we figured there was a good change the Spurs would take 1 of 2 in Miami which would give us the opportunity to average down the price. I'll be at an average price of +166 on Heat series, compared to the -225 which is what it opened at. Pretty good bargain for not losing much confidence that Miami will win the series.
Alright Heat series bettors we got the value we wanted. I got Heat series price of -200 last night and will load up the other third of my allocated money on Heat Even Money to win the series right now. I saw them at +110 earlier but didn't grab it.
Either way, we figured there was a good change the Spurs would take 1 of 2 in Miami which would give us the opportunity to average down the price. I'll be at an average price of +166 on Heat series, compared to the -225 which is what it opened at. Pretty good bargain for not losing much confidence that Miami will win the series.
Typo - I'll be at average price of -166 for the Heat to win the series.
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Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:
Alright Heat series bettors we got the value we wanted. I got Heat series price of -200 last night and will load up the other third of my allocated money on Heat Even Money to win the series right now. I saw them at +110 earlier but didn't grab it.
Either way, we figured there was a good change the Spurs would take 1 of 2 in Miami which would give us the opportunity to average down the price. I'll be at an average price of +166 on Heat series, compared to the -225 which is what it opened at. Pretty good bargain for not losing much confidence that Miami will win the series.
Typo - I'll be at average price of -166 for the Heat to win the series.
MrB, I'm thinking of adding to my spurs series bet. The line is currently -130. Is this still a good value bet?
If you think the Spurs will win the series and want to add to your
previous bet, wait until after they lose game 2. Your series price will
be much better than it is right now. Very unlikely that Spurs go up 2-0 so what's the rush?
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Quote Originally Posted by linewatcher:
MrB, I'm thinking of adding to my spurs series bet. The line is currently -130. Is this still a good value bet?
If you think the Spurs will win the series and want to add to your
previous bet, wait until after they lose game 2. Your series price will
be much better than it is right now. Very unlikely that Spurs go up 2-0 so what's the rush?
Interesting ... not very many believe spurs can beat Miami in game 2. I wonder what happens when the Spurs start draining their open 3's they missed in game 1? With the spread at -6 ... I'm not so certain I'd use "very unlikely" as their chances of winning game 2. Just saying.
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Interesting ... not very many believe spurs can beat Miami in game 2. I wonder what happens when the Spurs start draining their open 3's they missed in game 1? With the spread at -6 ... I'm not so certain I'd use "very unlikely" as their chances of winning game 2. Just saying.
Linewatcher, if you got the spurs at +200 before the series or something very close to that ... I wouldn't be adding at -130 ... u got a great price already.
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Linewatcher, if you got the spurs at +200 before the series or something very close to that ... I wouldn't be adding at -130 ... u got a great price already.
Interesting ... not very many believe spurs can beat Miami in game 2. I wonder what happens when the Spurs start draining their open 3's they missed in game 1? With the spread at -6 ... I'm not so certain I'd use "very unlikely" as their chances of winning game 2. Just saying.
C'mon. Don't make the mistake of thinking the spread is a good gauge of who will win the game. Look at the moneyline. Spurs were +160 or 170 I believe in game 1, but now they're +240 for game 2. There's a reason for that.
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Quote Originally Posted by cave0707:
Interesting ... not very many believe spurs can beat Miami in game 2. I wonder what happens when the Spurs start draining their open 3's they missed in game 1? With the spread at -6 ... I'm not so certain I'd use "very unlikely" as their chances of winning game 2. Just saying.
C'mon. Don't make the mistake of thinking the spread is a good gauge of who will win the game. Look at the moneyline. Spurs were +160 or 170 I believe in game 1, but now they're +240 for game 2. There's a reason for that.
Alright Heat series bettors we got the value we wanted. I got Heat series price of -200 last night and will load up the other third of my allocated money on Heat Even Money to win the series right now.
Wow. I'm sorry, but that just seems like suicide on top of a big mistake.
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Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:
Alright Heat series bettors we got the value we wanted. I got Heat series price of -200 last night and will load up the other third of my allocated money on Heat Even Money to win the series right now.
Wow. I'm sorry, but that just seems like suicide on top of a big mistake.
MrB, I'm thinking of adding to my spurs series bet. The line is currently -130. Is this still a good value bet?
I would never bet on a team to win a series right after they won the most recent game in the series. You're always getting the worst of it that way. If you want to add to your Spurs action, just take the +240 on Sunday. I'm thinking of doing that myself to get the eff out of this Heat debacle I've placed myself in.
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Quote Originally Posted by linewatcher:
MrB, I'm thinking of adding to my spurs series bet. The line is currently -130. Is this still a good value bet?
I would never bet on a team to win a series right after they won the most recent game in the series. You're always getting the worst of it that way. If you want to add to your Spurs action, just take the +240 on Sunday. I'm thinking of doing that myself to get the eff out of this Heat debacle I've placed myself in.
If you think the Spurs will win the series and want to add to your
previous bet, wait until after they lose game 2. Your series price will
be much better than it is right now. Very unlikely that Spurs go up 2-0 so what's the rush?
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Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:
If you think the Spurs will win the series and want to add to your
previous bet, wait until after they lose game 2. Your series price will
be much better than it is right now. Very unlikely that Spurs go up 2-0 so what's the rush?
C'mon. Don't make the mistake of thinking the spread is a good gauge of who will win the game. Look at the moneyline. Spurs were +160 or 170 I believe in game 1, but now they're +240 for game 2. There's a reason for that.
The Spurs were in the +190 to +200 range on the moneyline in Game 1. They're +240 now because home teams down 0-1 always have their line pumped up a little.
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Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:
C'mon. Don't make the mistake of thinking the spread is a good gauge of who will win the game. Look at the moneyline. Spurs were +160 or 170 I believe in game 1, but now they're +240 for game 2. There's a reason for that.
The Spurs were in the +190 to +200 range on the moneyline in Game 1. They're +240 now because home teams down 0-1 always have their line pumped up a little.
I love these threads. Why are people so convinced that the Spurs can not beat them? I do not get it. The Spurs are a team with great coaching, players, experience, and are very disciplined. They Heat can beat them but I think that the Spurs also have a very great chance.
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I love these threads. Why are people so convinced that the Spurs can not beat them? I do not get it. The Spurs are a team with great coaching, players, experience, and are very disciplined. They Heat can beat them but I think that the Spurs also have a very great chance.
C'mon. Don't make the mistake of thinking the spread is a good gauge of who will win the game. Look at the moneyline. Spurs were +160 or 170 I believe in game 1, but now they're +240 for game 2. There's a reason for that.
this is the best value bet on the board right now A team like the Spurs getting +240 is great value.
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Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:
C'mon. Don't make the mistake of thinking the spread is a good gauge of who will win the game. Look at the moneyline. Spurs were +160 or 170 I believe in game 1, but now they're +240 for game 2. There's a reason for that.
this is the best value bet on the board right now A team like the Spurs getting +240 is great value.
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