Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Twolves at home getting 5.5 or 6 pts. With Ant out and the other player out how many pts are the 2 worth ? If Donte DiVincenzo happens to peruse Covers.com, I think when he gets around to opening this thread, his forehead is going to gently hit his desk after he reads that, lol.
Seems too accurate
0
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Twolves at home getting 5.5 or 6 pts. With Ant out and the other player out how many pts are the 2 worth ? If Donte DiVincenzo happens to peruse Covers.com, I think when he gets around to opening this thread, his forehead is going to gently hit his desk after he reads that, lol.
Seeing White at 11.5 with over -115ish for price. Was really hoping for a bit of a discount in game 6. Don't think that line/price is low enough yet it feels like.
0
@theclaw
Seeing White at 11.5 with over -115ish for price. Was really hoping for a bit of a discount in game 6. Don't think that line/price is low enough yet it feels like.
Well yes these Knicks is definitely built for the playoffs, their starting 5 are extremely tough to beat, all of them are really strong grinders, JB might not be the MVP in this league, but he’s the most clutch shooter in last 3 mins of the game
If you love the hawks , you might have to hope it’s a letdown spot for the Knicks, I still think the hawks D still soft and not ready for the Knicks
0
@MrBator
Well yes these Knicks is definitely built for the playoffs, their starting 5 are extremely tough to beat, all of them are really strong grinders, JB might not be the MVP in this league, but he’s the most clutch shooter in last 3 mins of the game
If you love the hawks , you might have to hope it’s a letdown spot for the Knicks, I still think the hawks D still soft and not ready for the Knicks
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Twolves at home getting 5.5 or 6 pts. With Ant out and the other player out how many pts are the 2 worth ? If Donte DiVincenzo happens to peruse Covers.com, I think when he gets around to opening this thread, his forehead is going to gently hit his desk after he reads that, lol.
Ha, funny stuff ...........
0
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Twolves at home getting 5.5 or 6 pts. With Ant out and the other player out how many pts are the 2 worth ? If Donte DiVincenzo happens to peruse Covers.com, I think when he gets around to opening this thread, his forehead is going to gently hit his desk after he reads that, lol.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: For me to back the Hawks I'd have to believe the Hawks are much better after the Young trade and by a good amount - then in these cases the series does have a good shot to go 7 games. Since I don't know that I have to pass. The Hawks finished 24-17 at home this season, but check out their final 15 regular season home games... defeated the Nets 115-104 defeated the Wizards 119-98 defeated the Wizards 126-96 defeated the Blazers 135-101 defeated the Sixers 125-116 defated the Mavericks 124-112 defeated the Nets 108-97 defeated the Bucks 122-99 defeated the Magic 124-112 defeated the Warriors 116-110 defeated the Grizzlies 146-107 defeated the Kings 123-113 defeated the Celtics 112-102 lost to the Knicks 108-105 defeated the Cavaliers 124-102 I realize much of that competition was soft, but look what they did to them! The Hawks went 14-1 and 12-3 ATS. But now they're going to lose to the Knicks at home for the 3rd time in 4 tries this month? Are the Knicks that bad a matchup for them? I didn't watch much NBA this season. Can someone answer that question?
Yes I am aware Hawks are playing better but how much better I don't know. We can't just use a small sample of 15 games or so.
I didn't bother breaking down their after the break stats unless they beat the Knicks which I didn't think they would so no point spending the time doing it.
But the one thing I do know is based on end of season rating Knicks are way better then Hawks and even though Hawks have improved not very likely they could of improved to make these 2 teams close.
We all remember hot teams when they were successful but next year when people talk about hot teams nobody will mention the Hornets who could not beat play-in teams or the Hawks but they'll still be asking who's the next Pacers.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: For me to back the Hawks I'd have to believe the Hawks are much better after the Young trade and by a good amount - then in these cases the series does have a good shot to go 7 games. Since I don't know that I have to pass. The Hawks finished 24-17 at home this season, but check out their final 15 regular season home games... defeated the Nets 115-104 defeated the Wizards 119-98 defeated the Wizards 126-96 defeated the Blazers 135-101 defeated the Sixers 125-116 defated the Mavericks 124-112 defeated the Nets 108-97 defeated the Bucks 122-99 defeated the Magic 124-112 defeated the Warriors 116-110 defeated the Grizzlies 146-107 defeated the Kings 123-113 defeated the Celtics 112-102 lost to the Knicks 108-105 defeated the Cavaliers 124-102 I realize much of that competition was soft, but look what they did to them! The Hawks went 14-1 and 12-3 ATS. But now they're going to lose to the Knicks at home for the 3rd time in 4 tries this month? Are the Knicks that bad a matchup for them? I didn't watch much NBA this season. Can someone answer that question?
Yes I am aware Hawks are playing better but how much better I don't know. We can't just use a small sample of 15 games or so.
I didn't bother breaking down their after the break stats unless they beat the Knicks which I didn't think they would so no point spending the time doing it.
But the one thing I do know is based on end of season rating Knicks are way better then Hawks and even though Hawks have improved not very likely they could of improved to make these 2 teams close.
We all remember hot teams when they were successful but next year when people talk about hot teams nobody will mention the Hornets who could not beat play-in teams or the Hawks but they'll still be asking who's the next Pacers.
@theclaw Seeing White at 11.5 with over -115ish for price. Was really hoping for a bit of a discount in game 6. Don't think that line/price is low enough yet it feels like.
Yea if line was down a bit more, as it turned out he scored 11 so had there been a larger adjustment he would have hit the over.....
2
Quote Originally Posted by SourSausage:
@theclaw Seeing White at 11.5 with over -115ish for price. Was really hoping for a bit of a discount in game 6. Don't think that line/price is low enough yet it feels like.
Yea if line was down a bit more, as it turned out he scored 11 so had there been a larger adjustment he would have hit the over.....
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition: The Hawks got their home win and their road win... now it should be lights out.Knicks 111-98 Yeah, that's probably how it's gonna go.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition: The Hawks got their home win and their road win... now it should be lights out.Knicks 111-98 Yeah, that's probably how it's gonna go.
Wows, Knicks layed a behind-the-woodshed-beatdown on the Hawks.
They won the last 3 games after being down 1-2, and remember Hawks won both games by 1 pt a little more luck based, but Knicks won by 16, 29, and 51 pts.
Playoff regression is very near for this Knicks team.
Twolves wrap up the series once again this Nuggets team goes home empty handed. They have never had the common denominators of past champs and only won a title in the year with weakest group of teams and beat easily the weakest 4 teams to win the title.
Ave opp they beat 2.34, that'd rank 12th this year which puts it in perspective, imagine playing teams ave 12th place.
Celtics big disappointment going to game 7.
I don't know how good 76ers are with Embiid back but Celtics are far better based on year end ratings , I can't see Embiid adding that much to match the Celtics but maybe he does.
He didn't play particularly well but his presence opens up other players for sure.
I would still have to lean Celtics game 7 .
0
Wows, Knicks layed a behind-the-woodshed-beatdown on the Hawks.
They won the last 3 games after being down 1-2, and remember Hawks won both games by 1 pt a little more luck based, but Knicks won by 16, 29, and 51 pts.
Playoff regression is very near for this Knicks team.
Twolves wrap up the series once again this Nuggets team goes home empty handed. They have never had the common denominators of past champs and only won a title in the year with weakest group of teams and beat easily the weakest 4 teams to win the title.
Ave opp they beat 2.34, that'd rank 12th this year which puts it in perspective, imagine playing teams ave 12th place.
Celtics big disappointment going to game 7.
I don't know how good 76ers are with Embiid back but Celtics are far better based on year end ratings , I can't see Embiid adding that much to match the Celtics but maybe he does.
He didn't play particularly well but his presence opens up other players for sure.
Do you have thoughts or data on teams that win but don’t cover not having the same value on the bounce back as teams who lose su the last game? I think more nuance should be applied for bounce back situations imo
The pistons for example apply here as a fake bounce back after they won last game but didn’t cover. The bounce back value lies in the psychological factor of responding to a lost game, not a lost cover. If a team won 3 games in a row by 9 on a -10 spread, they would be a bounce back on ats spot in theory, but in reality would be a fade off 3 comfortable wins regressing for a loss
0
@theclaw
Do you have thoughts or data on teams that win but don’t cover not having the same value on the bounce back as teams who lose su the last game? I think more nuance should be applied for bounce back situations imo
The pistons for example apply here as a fake bounce back after they won last game but didn’t cover. The bounce back value lies in the psychological factor of responding to a lost game, not a lost cover. If a team won 3 games in a row by 9 on a -10 spread, they would be a bounce back on ats spot in theory, but in reality would be a fade off 3 comfortable wins regressing for a loss
@theclaw Do you have thoughts or data on teams that win but don’t cover not having the same value on the bounce back as teams who lose su the last game? I think more nuance should be applied for bounce back situations imo The pistons for example apply here as a fake bounce back after they won last game but didn’t cover. The bounce back value lies in the psychological factor of responding to a lost game, not a lost cover. If a team won 3 games in a row by 9 on a -10 spread, they would be a bounce back on ats spot in theory, but in reality would be a fade off 3 comfortable wins regressing for a loss
Good point..........
I look at the book sets the line if both teams play at their average ability. So 3 ATS wins or losses means a team is playing below average or above average so regression is likely.
Also depending how much above or below average.
0
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:
@theclaw Do you have thoughts or data on teams that win but don’t cover not having the same value on the bounce back as teams who lose su the last game? I think more nuance should be applied for bounce back situations imo The pistons for example apply here as a fake bounce back after they won last game but didn’t cover. The bounce back value lies in the psychological factor of responding to a lost game, not a lost cover. If a team won 3 games in a row by 9 on a -10 spread, they would be a bounce back on ats spot in theory, but in reality would be a fade off 3 comfortable wins regressing for a loss
Good point..........
I look at the book sets the line if both teams play at their average ability. So 3 ATS wins or losses means a team is playing below average or above average so regression is likely.
Celtics -7.5 (-120) over 76ers --- 1.2 units. If we look at game 1 & 2 Celtics at home with no Embiid -13.5 bet up. Game 5 Embiid back, Celtics -11.5 that's a 2 pt adjustment from game 1 without Embiid. Game 6 with Embiid in Philly was a 1.5 adjustment. Now with 76ers off 2 wins with Embiid line is -8 , that's a 3.5 pt adjustment from game 5 with Embiid. All of a sudden the book makes a much bigger adjustment after 2 very nice 76ers wins with Embiid back. Big adjustments I'll take the .3.5 pts the book wants to give me. Play is on Celtics
Pistons 2.0
0
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Celtics -7.5 (-120) over 76ers --- 1.2 units. If we look at game 1 & 2 Celtics at home with no Embiid -13.5 bet up. Game 5 Embiid back, Celtics -11.5 that's a 2 pt adjustment from game 1 without Embiid. Game 6 with Embiid in Philly was a 1.5 adjustment. Now with 76ers off 2 wins with Embiid line is -8 , that's a 3.5 pt adjustment from game 5 with Embiid. All of a sudden the book makes a much bigger adjustment after 2 very nice 76ers wins with Embiid back. Big adjustments I'll take the .3.5 pts the book wants to give me. Play is on Celtics
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Seems too accurate
Hot Forum Topics
