IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

@theclaw

 Seeing White at 11.5 with over -115ish for price. Was really hoping for a bit of a discount in game 6. Don't think that line/price is low enough yet it feels like.

@MrBator

 Knowing what you shared the first thing I ask myself is "why are they the dog at home when facing elimination?"

And you can throw out the end of the regular season, many of those games were against opponents that had nothing to play for.

This is the playoffs, when every game matters.

In his time with the Jazz and Hawks Quinn is 0-7 ATS in round 1 of the playoffs after a game where the total finished 215 or less, 0-2 this series.

The Hawks got their home win and their road win... now it should be lights out.

Knicks 111-98

Yeah, that's probably how it's gonna go.

@MrBator

 Well yes these Knicks is definitely built for the playoffs, their starting 5 are extremely tough to beat, all of them are really strong grinders, JB might not be the MVP in this league, but he’s the most clutch shooter in last 3 mins of the game 

If you love the hawks , you might have to hope it’s a letdown spot for the Knicks, I still think the hawks D still soft and not ready for the Knicks 

Good luck.

Ha, funny stuff ...........

Yes I am aware Hawks are playing better but how much better I don't know. We can't just use a small sample  of 15 games or so.

I didn't bother breaking down their after the break stats unless they beat the Knicks which I didn't think they would so no point spending the time doing it.

But the one thing I do know is based on end of season rating Knicks are way better then Hawks and even though Hawks have improved not very likely they could of improved to make these 2 teams close.

We all remember  hot teams when they were successful but next year when people talk about hot teams nobody will mention the Hornets who could not beat play-in teams or the Hawks but they'll  still be asking who's the next Pacers.

Yea if line was down a bit more, as it turned out he scored 11 so had there been a larger adjustment he would have hit the over.....

Wows, Knicks layed a behind-the-woodshed-beatdown on the Hawks.

They won the last 3 games after being down 1-2, and remember Hawks won both games by 1 pt a little more luck based, but Knicks won by 16, 29, and 51 pts.

Playoff regression is very near for this Knicks team.

Twolves wrap up the series once again this Nuggets team goes home empty handed. They have never had the common denominators of past champs and only won a title in the year with weakest group of teams and beat easily the weakest 4 teams to win the title.

Ave opp they beat 2.34, that'd  rank 12th this year which puts it in perspective, imagine playing teams ave 12th place. 

Celtics big disappointment going to game 7.

I don't know how good 76ers are with Embiid back but Celtics are far better based on year end ratings , I can't see Embiid adding that much to match the Celtics but maybe he does.

He didn't play particularly well but his presence  opens up other players for sure. 

I would still have to lean Celtics game 7 .

0-1, lost 1.1 units

Playoff --- 9-6, win 2.35 units

Player props & futures --' 0-2, lost .66 units

My Lines ..............

Pistons -3.06 over Magic

Raptors -3.02 over Cavs

Rockets -6.43 over LA

Rockets -4.29 ......using LA after the break when they played much better

If we use after the break with Luka and KD out, Luka is worth more pts, KD is past his prime.

Line should be -6 to -7 maybe which still looks like value on the Rockets but Rockets off 2 SU & ATS wins I have to pass.

Teams down 0-3 have won 2 games before with some winning 3 straight and taking it to a game 7 but not very many go to game 7.

Raps off 3 ATS wins not a good spot to back Raps. 

This series was the closest in both PR I & PR II added together which does end in a 7 game series many times.

By the way Nuggets/Twolves was 2cd closest.

Actually the closest matchup using PR II as Nuggets a weak rebounding  team.

The way the series has played out so far with Cavs taking a 2-0  series lead and leading 3-2 indicates more likely Cavs win this series.

My line is 3-2 ATS so far with any lean in this series.

I would lean to Cavs getting it done tonight.

Pistons off 3 ATS losses, and much better in both PR's then the Magic, and trailing 3-2 in series, great spot to back this Pistons team.

My line is only 1-4 ATS in the series thus far. Id look for this to bounce back tonight.

Pistons -3 (-120) over Magic --- 2.4  units

@theclaw

 Do you have thoughts or data on teams that win but don’t cover not having the same value on the bounce back as teams who lose su the last game? I think more nuance should be applied for bounce back situations imo 

The pistons for example apply here as a fake bounce back after they won last game but didn’t cover. The bounce back value lies in the psychological factor of responding to a lost game, not a lost cover. If a team won 3 games in a row by 9 on a -10 spread, they would be a bounce back on ats spot in theory, but in reality would be a fade off 3 comfortable wins regressing for a loss

Good luck with DET.  I am having trouble coming up with plays, and at 0-2 I am not eager to back a small-sample query.

Nice historic win with DET.

Per Google AI:

Good point..........

I look at the book sets the line if both teams play at their average ability. So 3 ATS wins or losses means a team is playing below average  or above average so regression is likely.

Also depending  how much above or below average. 

Yes crazy win...........

Magic were shooting at a high FG% rate 1st half., I figure 2cd half would be different but didn't see that happening. 

1 for 20 in the 4th.

Maybe the moment was too big for the Magic.

Celtics -7.5 (-120) over 76ers --- 1.2 units.

If we look at game 1 & 2 Celtics at home with no Embiid  -13.5 bet up.

Game 5 Embiid back, Celtics -11.5 that's a  2 pt adjustment from game 1 without Embiid.

Game 6 with Embiid in Philly was a 1.5 adjustment.

Now with 76ers off 2 wins with Embiid line is -8 ,  that's  a 3.5 pt adjustment from game 5 with Embiid.

All of a sudden the book makes a much bigger adjustment after 2 very nice 76ers wins with Embiid back.

Big adjustments I'll  take the .3.5 pts the book wants to give me.

Play is on Celtics 

Good luck with BOS.

@theclaw

 Tatum is out ?