IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

Yep 100% .................

Ha..............

Luckily I got in before Ant was announced to play............

. I had no clue he'd play but was happy to see him and the other fella back........

Game & totals   ---  1-2 ATS , lost .7 units

dogs ML --- 0-2, lost 1 unit

Playoffs --- 12-9, won 3.45 units

dogs ML ---- 0-2, lost 1 unit

Wow Knicks keep on keep'in it on with another big blowout win.

This puts them much deeper into regression. 

Ant was back and Twolves delivered with a SU win.

My Lines ...............

Pistons -7.7 over Cavs

OKC -10.99 over LA .........LA after break

OKC -12.13 ........ full season

Both teams off a 7 game series and my line clearly on the Pistons but with the Pistons off 3 SU & ATS wins, not the best spot to back Pistons but I can't back the Cavs with such a large difference with my line and actual line.

With Luka out the line looks about right.

How do these 5% shooting efficiency  monsters do in round 2 ?

Game 1 --- 6-2 SU & 4-4 ATS

Game 2 --- 6-2 SU & 4-4 ATS

Totally different story from game 1.

Of the 2 SU losses in game 1 these monsters rolled game 2 by 37 & 43 pts.

Off a game 1 ATS loss-- 3-1 ATS game 2.

6 of the 8 teams went 1-1 ATS in the 2 games.

With 1 team going 2-0 ATS and 1 team going 0-2 ATS.

So that means 7 of 8 teams won ATS in at least 1 of the 2 games and 7 of 8 teams lost ATS in at least 1 game.

We make a play game 2 based on the results of game 1.

Now the best  indicator this round appears to be My Lines , with a 1 pt difference  to the closing line in games 1 & 2 My Lines is 8-2 ATS.

Beating the spread by an average of 5.9 pts.

But with Luka out tough to get an accurate line.

There could be better opportunities in game 2 of both series so I'll pass tonight.

CLV has beaten DET in their last 12 PO matchups.  Of course their most recent PO matchup was in the 2015 season.  Cade Cunningham might make a difference.

Does anyone know how accurate/predictive ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) is? Comparing today's (TUE) games, the BPI makes DET look like a much better bet:

DET -3.5, BPI chance to win 71%

OKC -15.5, BPI change to win 79%

Good luck everybody.

Interesting  stuff dog .............

My Lines ..............game 2's

Knicks -11.46 over 76ers .......with Embiid out most of season 

Spurs -8.21 over Twolves...... full season

Spurs -10.59 ...... Ave full season & after break

Knicks now off another big blowout win. I saw online this is the very first time any team won by 25 or more 3 consecutive playoff games.

Wow, the Knicks did this ?? The Knicks of all teams ?? Crazy.

Playoff regression  play is on the 76ers. The 2cd game of regression  is higher probability..

Spurs were somewhat close to playoff regression  fade game 1. Losing SU not likely they lose SU again.

I saw online that a 3 seed or better after a game 1 lose and better then 5 pt favorite, is like 68% they cover game 2.

I would lean Spurs bouncing back in this spot especially  with Ant's injury maybe they rest him a little more after getting 1 win. And I hear you is out. Can't verify that anywhere I took a quick look.

With the Spurs being a near regression  fade , regression  is not etch in stone, just what I make it and I like to make it more difficult  to reach as it seems higher probability. 

Regression  teams do fail to cover 2 games in a row or they can fail to cover 2 of next 3 games.

Tough call here but I'll chose to pass. 

Embiid seems a little shaky as far as his health although he will play. I have to play 76ers here just hoping it won't be to big an issue. 

These situations are difficult but I have to believe  in regression 

76ers +8 (-105) over Knicks --- 2.1 units

76ers ML +240 --- .5 units

Knicks/76ers UNDER 216.5 --- .55 units

Knicks TT UNDER 112.5 (-115) --- .58 units

76ers +4.5 (-115) 1st half --- 1.15 units

76ers ML first half +185 --- .5 units

Knicks/76ers UNDER 110.5 1st half --- .55 units

I'd take Knicks TT under 1st half but cannot find it.  Might be available  later.

@theclaw

 This still stand with Embiid out?

The NYK 1H team total is 58.5, Over is -110 and Under is -112 at Heritage.

Good luck with PHL.

+10.5

GL  on your plays @theclaw 

Nice hit.  Congratulations again.

I didn't think to check back , I did see he was out.

If any plays I make I don't like those plays  I always come back and buy out of the plays obviously losing the juice.

Had I waited I'd gotten a better line and bigger ML , thankfully the line did not come into play.........

Thanks for the info dog, I wasn't able to get down on the first half TT plays thankfully.........

Thanks mac , best of luck to you as well ......

Thanks dog ..........

My Lines. ...................

Pistons -7.7 over Cavs

OKC -12.13 over LA ....... full season

OKC - 10.99 .......... LA after the break

Pistons off 4 ATS and SU wins, not a good spot to back the Pistons. But with such a big difference  in my line and actual line I pass on this game.

It appears Cavs are a bit over-rated because of Harden trade and Pistons underrated from what I am seeing.

One guy on wagertalk said Pistons might be 6th best in the West, he was same guy though said Nuggets would win the West.

Speaking of Nuggets, I saw on you tube someone  said Jokic with Nuggets has never beaten a 50 win team in playoffs.

Wow crazy if it is true 

OKC with an 18 pt win game 1.

Let's  look at the other 8 teams outshot opps by 5% shooting efficiency and how big was their biggest win in round 2 in games 1& 2.

Of the 8 teams the ave largest win by the 8 teams was 22.5 pts. Right in line with OKC 's 18 pt win.

But 2 teams largest win came after a game 1 SU loss a spot OKC is not in.

Those 2 teams won by 43 & 37 pts which skewed the ave.

Of the remaining 6 teams the ave win was 17 pts. Oh my look at this.

4 of the 8 teams largest win was 16 pts or less, the 2 over 16 was 22 and 25 then the 43 & 37 of teams off game 1 losses.

Now what about the smallest wins ?

Well, of the 8 teams 4 lost SU, 2 in game 1 and 2 in game 2 

Then we have ann 11 pt win and another 11 pt win then a 5 and 4 pt win.

Which means no team has won both games 1 and 2 by 12 pts or more.

Play has to be on LA

A small sample size ?

Let's look at 9 teams over 4 % back in the 80's and 90's which was the equivalent of today's over 5%.

Of the 9 teams only 1 won both games by 12 or more.

That was 85 Lakers with Magic and Kareem winning both by 16 pts or more.

And 3 of the 9 lost one game SU so that is 7 of 17 teams lost a game 1 or game 2 SU ....41.1%

Great spot to play LA on a nice ML .

Cavs 1h with pistons off 4 straight tough wins taking a toll. We’ll get a let down 1h if not FG. Pistons are a fraud ultimately

Good call on sixers, think you gotta ride them for gm3 big even though the regression fade already hit nyk. 4 straight wins for ny, sixers proven very resilient, monitor embiid status for best line but it’s a major play either way 

LA +15.5 over OKC --- 1.1 units

LA ML +600 --- .25 units to win 1.5 units

GL on your plays @theclaw