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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Interesting info about the Heat's 12-0 ATS trend that might be useful tonight in Game 6

    «First Previous 131415 ... 151617 Next Last»
    MrBator
    Nflmaestro
    archtown
    Michfan15
    JEG53
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    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:25 PM ET #301

    Quote Originally Posted by Nflmaestro:

    furthermore, and my main point in post 291 is this:

    why would pop or any other coach EVER limit minutes in a potential close out game?  do you think he's thinking about how good the spurs bounce back off DD losses or how mellow the heat play off DD wins?  no, he is thinking how badly he can taste the kiss of that shiny trophy





    You are correct, Nflmaestro.  Pop was going for it, and nobody can possibly second guess him and his team for going all-out for the win.  If only his thinking was as advanced as mine....




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    Quote Originally Posted by Nflmaestro:

    furthermore, and my main point in post 291 is this:

    why would pop or any other coach EVER limit minutes in a potential close out game?  do you think he's thinking about how good the spurs bounce back off DD losses or how mellow the heat play off DD wins?  no, he is thinking how badly he can taste the kiss of that shiny trophy





    You are correct, Nflmaestro.  Pop was going for it, and nobody can possibly second guess him and his team for going all-out for the win.  If only his thinking was as advanced as mine....




     
    Nflmaestro
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:27 PM ET #302

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:






    As it turns out, I have no right to second guess Gregg Popovich given his career credentials and given the fact that Game 6 came within an eyelash of ending very nicely for the San Antonio Spurs. 


    Are the Heat lackadaisical following a double-digit win, or has the long season rendered them incapable of mustering forth a strong effort two times in a row?  I think it's more of the latter.  Game 5 was a huge game, one they needed to avoid tonight's current predicament, and they didn't even come close.  They tried hard in that game, and they didn't come close.

    i think ur right, im on the spurs +6.5 for whatever that is worth, small play on ML +250.  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:






    As it turns out, I have no right to second guess Gregg Popovich given his career credentials and given the fact that Game 6 came within an eyelash of ending very nicely for the San Antonio Spurs. 


    Are the Heat lackadaisical following a double-digit win, or has the long season rendered them incapable of mustering forth a strong effort two times in a row?  I think it's more of the latter.  Game 5 was a huge game, one they needed to avoid tonight's current predicament, and they didn't even come close.  They tried hard in that game, and they didn't come close.

    i think ur right, im on the spurs +6.5 for whatever that is worth, small play on ML +250.  
     
    archtown
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:28 PM ET #303

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    Michfan15
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:29 PM ET #304

    here is a nice stat that bodes well for u gator:

    ducan fg% in the playoffs following 40+ mins

    2013:
    38% game 5 vs GS
    46% game 4 v mem
    2011:
    36% game 6 v mem
    2010:
    11% game 4 v dallas

    of the last 5 years heres the exception:
    2009:
    67% game 5 v dallas...coming off a 42 min game he shot 14/21 with 30 pts 8 rebs

    very excited for this game tn BOL



           
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    here is a nice stat that bodes well for u gator:

    ducan fg% in the playoffs following 40+ mins

    2013:
    38% game 5 vs GS
    46% game 4 v mem
    2011:
    36% game 6 v mem
    2010:
    11% game 4 v dallas

    of the last 5 years heres the exception:
    2009:
    67% game 5 v dallas...coming off a 42 min game he shot 14/21 with 30 pts 8 rebs

    very excited for this game tn BOL



           
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:34 PM ET #305

    Quote Originally Posted by Nflmaestro:


    i think ur right, im on the spurs +6.5 for whatever that is worth, small play on ML +250.  





    I'm envious of your +250.  I have a Heat series bet I'd still like to ditch.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nflmaestro:


    i think ur right, im on the spurs +6.5 for whatever that is worth, small play on ML +250.  





    I'm envious of your +250.  I have a Heat series bet I'd still like to ditch.
     
    JEG53
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:40 PM ET #306

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:






    I'm envious of your +250.  I have a Heat series bet I'd still like to ditch.


    Yeh my line is +5.5 and m/l 205 so he has good lines anyway,I'm just not sure what the Spurs have left,the Kid that missed the FT is going to feel even worse if Spurs do lose.
    Plus last 2 baskets by Heat were on off.rebounds with Duncan on the bench,I'm not going to second guess Pop,but thought that was strange he was out.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:






    I'm envious of your +250.  I have a Heat series bet I'd still like to ditch.


    Yeh my line is +5.5 and m/l 205 so he has good lines anyway,I'm just not sure what the Spurs have left,the Kid that missed the FT is going to feel even worse if Spurs do lose.
    Plus last 2 baskets by Heat were on off.rebounds with Duncan on the bench,I'm not going to second guess Pop,but thought that was strange he was out.
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:43 PM ET #307

    As for my Heat -200 and -210 series bets...



    I still don't want them.  I don't necessarily like the Spurs tonight, but I don't want to root for nor trust the Heat, a team I loathe and don't believe in.  Early this morning, my intention was to go out on the Strip and get down a total of $14,000 on the Spurs +240, a line which was available in numerous sportsbooks.  But then I made the mistake of accepting a breakfast invitation, and miscalculated that the +240s would still be there when I finally got around to go getting them.  Well, they weren't.  Only the MGM Resorts chain still had the Spurs moneyline at +240, so I drove all the way to the Mirage, where I walked into the book and saw the +240 still sitting on the board.  I stepped to the window and discovered someone else was at the next window trying to bet $5,000 on the same thing.  They let him bet $3,000 and changed the line to +230.  So, I'm still stuck with my unwanted action on the Heat. 

    Between now and gametime, I will hope for +240, but I may settle for +235 and +230 because I really, really, really, really don't want to be involved in tonight's game.  I don't know who's going to win, I don't have a strong opinion, I've had a huge bet on each of the last four games, and I've really had enough stress in this series, especially with this unwanted 29.4 unit series bet hanging over my head the whole time, a bet that prompted me to throw away $6,000 on the Spurs moneyline in Game 2 and a whole lot more than that on Game 4.


    Whew.......can't you just feel my stress in that last sentence?
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    As for my Heat -200 and -210 series bets...



    I still don't want them.  I don't necessarily like the Spurs tonight, but I don't want to root for nor trust the Heat, a team I loathe and don't believe in.  Early this morning, my intention was to go out on the Strip and get down a total of $14,000 on the Spurs +240, a line which was available in numerous sportsbooks.  But then I made the mistake of accepting a breakfast invitation, and miscalculated that the +240s would still be there when I finally got around to go getting them.  Well, they weren't.  Only the MGM Resorts chain still had the Spurs moneyline at +240, so I drove all the way to the Mirage, where I walked into the book and saw the +240 still sitting on the board.  I stepped to the window and discovered someone else was at the next window trying to bet $5,000 on the same thing.  They let him bet $3,000 and changed the line to +230.  So, I'm still stuck with my unwanted action on the Heat. 

    Between now and gametime, I will hope for +240, but I may settle for +235 and +230 because I really, really, really, really don't want to be involved in tonight's game.  I don't know who's going to win, I don't have a strong opinion, I've had a huge bet on each of the last four games, and I've really had enough stress in this series, especially with this unwanted 29.4 unit series bet hanging over my head the whole time, a bet that prompted me to throw away $6,000 on the Spurs moneyline in Game 2 and a whole lot more than that on Game 4.


    Whew.......can't you just feel my stress in that last sentence?
     
    HiHoldem
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:44 PM ET #308

    Good afternoon Mr. Bator,

           So, if my local would agree to cancel my series bet......would you do it???

    If so, what would I bet on to sweat the game?

    I'm thinking.....stay "pat" (assuming he would void my -2.15 Heat series bet which is HUGE for me), and root for the bad guys!

     

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    Good afternoon Mr. Bator,

           So, if my local would agree to cancel my series bet......would you do it???

    If so, what would I bet on to sweat the game?

    I'm thinking.....stay "pat" (assuming he would void my -2.15 Heat series bet which is HUGE for me), and root for the bad guys!

     

     
    HiHoldem
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:47 PM ET #309

    Post #308 was sent before I saw #307......

    so, you would dump, and just watch the game?

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    Post #308 was sent before I saw #307......

    so, you would dump, and just watch the game?

     
    HiHoldem
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:48 PM ET #310

    Sorry....you are only getting "out" for a profit!
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    Sorry....you are only getting "out" for a profit!
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:50 PM ET #311

    If you cash a 14K ticket in Vegas at a book, do they make you fill out a tax form or keep a comp. record of it beforehand?
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    If you cash a 14K ticket in Vegas at a book, do they make you fill out a tax form or keep a comp. record of it beforehand?
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:52 PM ET #312

    Quote Originally Posted by HiHoldem:

    Good afternoon Mr. Bator,

           So, if my local would agree to cancel my series bet......would you do it???

    If so, what would I bet on to sweat the game?

    I'm thinking.....stay "pat" (assuming he would void my -2.15 Heat series bet which is HUGE for me), and root for the bad guys!

     





    I would think your local would be happy to cancel your bet, given that you're looking to toss away a -215 bet that currently stands around -250 or -260.  It's your decision.  If you feel you have more money risked than you'd like, then ask him if you can reduce the wager or erase it altogether.  Do whatever you'll be able to live with if the worst case scenario happens.  I'm not exactly looking to "throw away" my -200 and -210 wagers, because I'm looking at a pretty phat scalp if I take back +230 or better.  Not a bad situation to be in, and since I'd love to see the Heat suffer a humiliating Game 7 loss, that's probably the way for me to go.
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    Quote Originally Posted by HiHoldem:

    Good afternoon Mr. Bator,

           So, if my local would agree to cancel my series bet......would you do it???

    If so, what would I bet on to sweat the game?

    I'm thinking.....stay "pat" (assuming he would void my -2.15 Heat series bet which is HUGE for me), and root for the bad guys!

     





    I would think your local would be happy to cancel your bet, given that you're looking to toss away a -215 bet that currently stands around -250 or -260.  It's your decision.  If you feel you have more money risked than you'd like, then ask him if you can reduce the wager or erase it altogether.  Do whatever you'll be able to live with if the worst case scenario happens.  I'm not exactly looking to "throw away" my -200 and -210 wagers, because I'm looking at a pretty phat scalp if I take back +230 or better.  Not a bad situation to be in, and since I'd love to see the Heat suffer a humiliating Game 7 loss, that's probably the way for me to go.
     
    Revo23
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:57 PM ET #313

    Yea, even if I did think Miami would cover the 6, do I think I would lay it?  Hell no.  No way can I bet on Miami tonight knowing deep down I'll be rooting against my own vested interest.  




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    Yea, even if I did think Miami would cover the 6, do I think I would lay it?  Hell no.  No way can I bet on Miami tonight knowing deep down I'll be rooting against my own vested interest.  




     
    thatsagoodone
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 5:58 PM ET #314

    Just think if SA wins tonight, it'll be like they beat Miami 5 times in 7 games.  Now that's a well deserved banner.
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    Just think if SA wins tonight, it'll be like they beat Miami 5 times in 7 games.  Now that's a well deserved banner.
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:01 PM ET #315

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    If you cash a 14K ticket in Vegas at a book, do they make you fill out a tax form or keep a comp. record of it beforehand?




    If you attempt to cash a sports betting ticket worth $10,001 or more, and you insist on cash, then you would have to fill out a tax form.  You can avoid that by asking for chips.  All you have to do is ask for an amount in chips that would reduce your cash payout to $10,000 or less.  For example, if I present a winning ticket worth $14,000, I can simply ask for a $5,000 chip and $9,000 in cash. 

    The supervisor will always appreciate this maneuver, because it saves them from unwanted paperwork, too.  They are not allowed to suggest this idea to customers, though, because that is considered aiding customers in avoiding the reporting of a cash transaction in excess of $10,000.  But trust me, they wish everyone knew about it. 

    What I normally do is hold onto winning tickets until it is time to bet at that book again, and then simply place a new bet using my winning ticket.  For example, if I present that same $14,000 winning ticket and place a $5,500 wager, then they owe me $8,500 in change.  Presto, no tax form!  I do that all the time and have never filled out the tax form.  I don't even know what it looks like.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    If you cash a 14K ticket in Vegas at a book, do they make you fill out a tax form or keep a comp. record of it beforehand?




    If you attempt to cash a sports betting ticket worth $10,001 or more, and you insist on cash, then you would have to fill out a tax form.  You can avoid that by asking for chips.  All you have to do is ask for an amount in chips that would reduce your cash payout to $10,000 or less.  For example, if I present a winning ticket worth $14,000, I can simply ask for a $5,000 chip and $9,000 in cash. 

    The supervisor will always appreciate this maneuver, because it saves them from unwanted paperwork, too.  They are not allowed to suggest this idea to customers, though, because that is considered aiding customers in avoiding the reporting of a cash transaction in excess of $10,000.  But trust me, they wish everyone knew about it. 

    What I normally do is hold onto winning tickets until it is time to bet at that book again, and then simply place a new bet using my winning ticket.  For example, if I present that same $14,000 winning ticket and place a $5,500 wager, then they owe me $8,500 in change.  Presto, no tax form!  I do that all the time and have never filled out the tax form.  I don't even know what it looks like.
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:04 PM ET #316

    Quote Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

    Just think if SA wins tonight, it'll be like they beat Miami 5 times in 7 games.  Now that's a well deserved banner.





              I like that post.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

    Just think if SA wins tonight, it'll be like they beat Miami 5 times in 7 games.  Now that's a well deserved banner.





              I like that post.
     
    Theone324
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:06 PM ET #317

    Bator you playing anything on the diamond tonight?
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    Bator you playing anything on the diamond tonight?
     
    Revo23
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:09 PM ET #318

    Quote Originally Posted by Theone324:

    Bator you playing anything on the diamond tonight?

    I was just going to say...  I'm really excited about the Dodgers tonight.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Theone324:

    Bator you playing anything on the diamond tonight?

    I was just going to say...  I'm really excited about the Dodgers tonight.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:10 PM ET #319

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:





    If you attempt to cash a sports betting ticket worth $10,001 or more, and you insist on cash, then you would have to fill out a tax form.  You can avoid that by asking for chips.  All you have to do is ask for an amount in chips that would reduce your cash payout to $10,000 or less.  For example, if I present a winning ticket worth $14,000, I can simply ask for a $5,000 chip and $9,000 in cash. 

    The supervisor will always appreciate this maneuver, because it saves them from unwanted paperwork, too.  They are not allowed to suggest this idea to customers, though, because that is considered aiding customers in avoiding the reporting of a cash transaction in excess of $10,000.  But trust me, they wish everyone knew about it. 

    What I normally do is hold onto winning tickets until it is time to bet at that book again, and then simply place a new bet using my winning ticket.  For example, if I present that same $14,000 winning ticket and place a $5,500 wager, then they owe me $8,500 in change.  Presto, no tax form!  I do that all the time and have never filled out the tax form.  I don't even know what it looks like.

    Chips. Got it. 

    Given that, I'll keep all my $10K+ winning tickets right here beside David Robinson on my couch who asked if he could swing by tonight to watch the game.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:





    If you attempt to cash a sports betting ticket worth $10,001 or more, and you insist on cash, then you would have to fill out a tax form.  You can avoid that by asking for chips.  All you have to do is ask for an amount in chips that would reduce your cash payout to $10,000 or less.  For example, if I present a winning ticket worth $14,000, I can simply ask for a $5,000 chip and $9,000 in cash. 

    The supervisor will always appreciate this maneuver, because it saves them from unwanted paperwork, too.  They are not allowed to suggest this idea to customers, though, because that is considered aiding customers in avoiding the reporting of a cash transaction in excess of $10,000.  But trust me, they wish everyone knew about it. 

    What I normally do is hold onto winning tickets until it is time to bet at that book again, and then simply place a new bet using my winning ticket.  For example, if I present that same $14,000 winning ticket and place a $5,500 wager, then they owe me $8,500 in change.  Presto, no tax form!  I do that all the time and have never filled out the tax form.  I don't even know what it looks like.

    Chips. Got it. 

    Given that, I'll keep all my $10K+ winning tickets right here beside David Robinson on my couch who asked if he could swing by tonight to watch the game.
     
    kjrpat
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:12 PM ET #320

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:





    If you attempt to cash a sports betting ticket worth $10,001 or more, and you insist on cash, then you would have to fill out a tax form.  You can avoid that by asking for chips.  All you have to do is ask for an amount in chips that would reduce your cash payout to $10,000 or less.  For example, if I present a winning ticket worth $14,000, I can simply ask for a $5,000 chip and $9,000 in cash. 

    The supervisor will always appreciate this maneuver, because it saves them from unwanted paperwork, too.  They are not allowed to suggest this idea to customers, though, because that is considered aiding customers in avoiding the reporting of a cash transaction in excess of $10,000.  But trust me, they wish everyone knew about it. 

    What I normally do is hold onto winning tickets until it is time to bet at that book again, and then simply place a new bet using my winning ticket.  For example, if I present that same $14,000 winning ticket and place a $5,500 wager, then they owe me $8,500 in change.  Presto, no tax form!  I do that all the time and have never filled out the tax form.  I don't even know what it looks like.

    Why not spread the bet out at different casinos?
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:





    If you attempt to cash a sports betting ticket worth $10,001 or more, and you insist on cash, then you would have to fill out a tax form.  You can avoid that by asking for chips.  All you have to do is ask for an amount in chips that would reduce your cash payout to $10,000 or less.  For example, if I present a winning ticket worth $14,000, I can simply ask for a $5,000 chip and $9,000 in cash. 

    The supervisor will always appreciate this maneuver, because it saves them from unwanted paperwork, too.  They are not allowed to suggest this idea to customers, though, because that is considered aiding customers in avoiding the reporting of a cash transaction in excess of $10,000.  But trust me, they wish everyone knew about it. 

    What I normally do is hold onto winning tickets until it is time to bet at that book again, and then simply place a new bet using my winning ticket.  For example, if I present that same $14,000 winning ticket and place a $5,500 wager, then they owe me $8,500 in change.  Presto, no tax form!  I do that all the time and have never filled out the tax form.  I don't even know what it looks like.

    Why not spread the bet out at different casinos?
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:16 PM ET #321

    Quote Originally Posted by kjrpat:


    Why not spread the bet out at different casinos?




    Sure, you could do that, too, as long as the line you want is available at multiple locations and you can reach those multiple locations in time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kjrpat:


    Why not spread the bet out at different casinos?




    Sure, you could do that, too, as long as the line you want is available at multiple locations and you can reach those multiple locations in time.
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:20 PM ET #322

    Quote Originally Posted by Theone324:

    Bator you playing anything on the diamond tonight?




    I'm ignoring baseball for the second straight day.  Two reasons for this.  On Tuesday, six big underdogs cashed and I was on none of them.  Instead, I was on the lifeless Rays in the first game of the day-night doubleheader, the Rockies and Jeff Francis who were done in the bottom of the 1st inning, and the Padres whose bullpen effortlessly blew a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 8th.  On top of that, I wuz "darning" robbed of $53,500 in the basketball game, so I thought it'd be best to chill before another bad beat possibly leads to a homicide I can't cover up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Theone324:

    Bator you playing anything on the diamond tonight?




    I'm ignoring baseball for the second straight day.  Two reasons for this.  On Tuesday, six big underdogs cashed and I was on none of them.  Instead, I was on the lifeless Rays in the first game of the day-night doubleheader, the Rockies and Jeff Francis who were done in the bottom of the 1st inning, and the Padres whose bullpen effortlessly blew a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 8th.  On top of that, I wuz "darning" robbed of $53,500 in the basketball game, so I thought it'd be best to chill before another bad beat possibly leads to a homicide I can't cover up.
     
    Professional1
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:23 PM ET #323

    don't call aaron hernandez for advice on how to cover up a homicide.
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    don't call aaron hernandez for advice on how to cover up a homicide.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:45 PM ET #324

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:





    Sure, you could do that, too, as long as the line you want is available at multiple locations and you can reach those multiple locations in time.

    Who wants to walk miles in the streets and through casinos and/or take cabs through the Vegas heat doing such a thing when one place allows you such a great line? Chips please.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:





    Sure, you could do that, too, as long as the line you want is available at multiple locations and you can reach those multiple locations in time.

    Who wants to walk miles in the streets and through casinos and/or take cabs through the Vegas heat doing such a thing when one place allows you such a great line? Chips please.
     
     
    MrBator
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 6:51 PM ET #325

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Who wants to walk miles in the streets and through casinos and/or take cabs through the Vegas heat doing such a thing when one place allows you such a great line? Chips please.




    Limits are so low in today's Las Vegas that it's not possible to make a 10K bet on any one particular thing until football season (except for a few places that might take 10K on an NBA Finals side (and definitely not on a total or moneyline).
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    Who wants to walk miles in the streets and through casinos and/or take cabs through the Vegas heat doing such a thing when one place allows you such a great line? Chips please.




    Limits are so low in today's Las Vegas that it's not possible to make a 10K bet on any one particular thing until football season (except for a few places that might take 10K on an NBA Finals side (and definitely not on a total or moneyline).
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