Posted:
#401
Quote Originally Posted by Spooker:
Arrrr-rite ma neeegar
Why is this Spooker guy allowed to make racist posts without being thrown into the Penalty Box?
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Interesting info about the Heat's 12-0 ATS trend that might be useful tonight in Game 6
Posted:
#402
Quote Originally Posted by Spooker:
Ai love them neeegrows juice outs to the musik of da Ravens....
Ai love them neeegrows juice outs to the musik of da Ravens....
Deez neegars likes them uglee game faces and thinks they iz alllll dat.
Excuse my love of the negro dialect which I feel our President needs to let out once in awhile instead of behind closed doors.
Why is this Spooker guy allowed to make racist posts without being thrown into the Penalty Box?
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Posted:
#406
@Bator...
What was your final +/- on this series with your single game wagers and your series play?
Don't feel the need to answer if you don't want to. I was just curious. Thanks for spending some time in the forums the past couple weeks. It's always a pleasure to read your thoughts and insight.
BOL to your baseball season and look forward to the fall and some football
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Posted:
#407
After all that the ORIGINAL Bator Heat mega-unit bet hits.
Hedge out, hedge in, halftime bets props, halftime bets switched because of the lifeless listless heat not showing up, trends, zig and zag, etc...
I don't blame ya for hedging. I never thought they could get it done.
But the most profitable course of action was the original bet. Bet the Heat for the series for a ton and walk away. That was the big winner in the end and ya still got a significant portion of it.
All the rest is typical of what I do, what we all do: get caught up during the series and doubt our original bet causing us to bet more, mostly against ourselves, juicing ourselves into oblivion.
As long as the books can get you to bet anything and everything over the long run, they come out up or with their damage minimized.
I hate gambling when it feels like this.
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Posted:
#408
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
After all that the ORIGINAL Bator Heat mega-unit bet hits.
After all that the ORIGINAL Bator Heat mega-unit bet hits.
Hedge out, hedge in, halftime bets props, halftime bets switched because of the lifeless listless heat not showing up, trends, zig and zag, etc...
I don't blame ya for hedging. I never thought they could get it done.
But the most profitable course of action was the original bet. Bet the Heat for the series for a ton and walk away. That was the big winner in the end and ya still got a significant portion of it.
All the rest is typical of what I do, what we all do: get caught up during the series and doubt our original bet causing us to bet more, mostly against ourselves, juicing ourselves into oblivion.
As long as the books can get you to bet anything and everything over the long run, they come out up or with their damage minimized.
I hate gambling when it feels like this.
I don't think that's the way it worked out at all. I like most of the bets I made in this series. The only big mistake I made was going big with the Spurs in Game 4. I loved the bets I placed on the Spurs ML -125 in Game 3, Spurs 2nd half +1.5 +110 in Game 3, Spurs 2nd half +3 +110 in Game 5, and Spurs 2nd half +7.5 +115 and +8 -110 in Game 6. Those were all great bets, and with the lines I got on each one of those 2nd halves at the Mirage, they weren't juicing me out - I was juicing them out, taking +110 and +115 every time.
I wound up losing 29 units on the series because of the Earth-sized moose I took on the Game 6 second half bet. Otherwise I'd have been a 24.5 unit winner. If a miracle is what it took to beat me, then that's nothing new.
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Posted:
#409
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
I don't think that's the way it worked out at all. I like most of the bets I made in this series. The only big mistake I made was going big with the Spurs in Game 4. I loved the bets I placed on the Spurs ML -125 in Game 3, Spurs 2nd half +1.5 +110 in Game 3, Spurs 2nd half +3 +110 in Game 5, and Spurs 2nd half +7.5 +115 and +8 -110 in Game 6. Those were all great bets, and with the lines I got on each one of those 2nd halves at the Mirage, they weren't juicing me out - I was juicing them out, taking +110 and +115 every time.
I wound up losing 29 units on the series because of the Earth-sized moose I took on the Game 6 second half bet. Otherwise I'd have been a 24.5 unit winner. If a miracle is what it took to beat me, then that's nothing new.
I don't think that's the way it worked out at all. I like most of the bets I made in this series. The only big mistake I made was going big with the Spurs in Game 4. I loved the bets I placed on the Spurs ML -125 in Game 3, Spurs 2nd half +1.5 +110 in Game 3, Spurs 2nd half +3 +110 in Game 5, and Spurs 2nd half +7.5 +115 and +8 -110 in Game 6. Those were all great bets, and with the lines I got on each one of those 2nd halves at the Mirage, they weren't juicing me out - I was juicing them out, taking +110 and +115 every time.
I wound up losing 29 units on the series because of the Earth-sized moose I took on the Game 6 second half bet. Otherwise I'd have been a 24.5 unit winner. If a miracle is what it took to beat me, then that's nothing new.
Ok, if you got those bets at + money, yes, you were juicing them.
But at the end of the series, if you just take the Heat series bet, you walk away a BIG winner.
And why did you bet it? Because you knew, if the Spurs didn't win 4-1 (and no one expected such an outcome), they'd have to go back Miami and win on the road, a formidable task. You factored all this into the original bet!
So you factored all the downsides to a Spurs series win into the original bet. Then you hedged out in game 6. And yes, it was a miracle but on the road, with big time 3 point shooters in Shane and Ray and MM and Lebron, you knew you weren't comfortable even up big in the second half. Some whistle swallows later (and just atrocious play by a fading Manu), Miami takes game 6.
Then you even posted that since the Heat didn't get a DD win in game 6 to give you a Spurs 'Zig' mega-favorable trend, and the fact Pop left it all out there with little in the tank for 7, the Spurs couldn't come back. Of course, you still hedged and I think it was still a good bet but at the end of the day, the absolute bottom line was a Miami series bet was the right play and the most profitable play instead of zigging and zagging even with + money in some spots.
And this is what I'm talking about with all the self-doubt. We bet. We hedged out bets. In and out. Up and down. Even props! Bets bets bets. It's like the exotics during the Super Bowl. Just get em to the window and get them to bet on every yard gained or lost and every point scores.
If we make one sizable bet and stick with it, we profit big when all is said and done. That's the lesson I learned.
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Posted:
#410
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Ok, if you got those bets at + money, yes, you were juicing them.
But at the end of the series, if you just take the Heat series bet, you walk away a BIG winner.
And why did you bet it? Because you knew, if the Spurs didn't win 4-1 (and no one expected such an outcome), they'd have to go back Miami and win on the road, a formidable task. You factored all this into the original bet!
So you factored all the downsides to a Spurs series win into the original bet. Then you hedged out in game 6.
That wasn't a hedge. My 2nd half bet on the Spurs in Game 6 had nothing to do with my Heat series bet.
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Posted:
#411
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
That wasn't a hedge. My 2nd half bet on the Spurs in Game 6 had nothing to do with my Heat series bet.
That wasn't a hedge. My 2nd half bet on the Spurs in Game 6 had nothing to do with my Heat series bet.
Of course it did.
You needed the Spurs to win (disregarding a very improbable middle if Miami won by 1).
Then the spurs would win the series if it hit.
That bet is functioning as a 'hedge' given you had Miami for the series and it would have been the last one you made by default. We can't observe that bet in a vacuum of 'favorable bets' given there is big money riding on the opposite side on the series.
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