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Interesting info about the Heat's 12-0 ATS trend that might be useful tonight in Game 6

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MrBator

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Posts: 53233

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 8:44 AM ET #251

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

ActionMagnet, why are you bringing up some other team from some other year? Did the 2010 Celtics also have a powerful "off a double-digit loss with rest" trend going for them that was undefeated all season and winning by huge margins? No, they did not, and that trend that the Spurs DO have is the reason I strongly urged them to let the Heat romp in Game 6 so the Spurs could set themselves up for a rock solid SU win tonight. It would have worked beautifully.

MrBator

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Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 8:47 AM ET #252

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

You mean like the Celtics did in 2010 when they layed down in game 6 and let LA hammer them only to get screwed in game 7 by the refs allowing LA to shoot 21 fourth qtr free throws.. ?? That logic didn't work for the Celts.. I like that the spurs played balls to the wall, deep down Miami psyche has to be wondering and saying damnnn we are lucky what if what if, etc..

Actually, the Heat are thinking "They had us, man, they had us! And they let us off the hook!" And then they're doing a salsa dance, so happy that they absorbed the Spurs' best effort and survived.

MrBator

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Posts: 53233

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 8:54 AM ET #253

Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

If the Spurs got crushed in Game 6, the Heat would be coming off a double-digit win, and those flakes have dumped their last 5 games off a double-digit win. So far from building their confidence, the Heat lately off a DD win have been softened up as if they each just ate a dozen jelly donuts.

MrBator

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Posts: 53233

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 9:09 AM ET #254

Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

If anyone caught Stephen A. Smith yesterday on ESPN's "First Take" from San Antonio, you have to wonder if this loudmouth mush may have broken the Heat's back by insisting that the Spurs "will get annihilated" in Game 6. He went on and on with his prediction, displaying an assuredness that usually results in egg all over his face. I was listening to him and just wished he'd stop. But he wouldn't stop. So Stephen A's bluster is another thing that had me wondering if this is finally the spot in which the Heat can't rebound from a loss.

This highly-paid squareball Stephen A. Smith is the reason I refused to bet the Heat in the 1st half of Game 6. Can't wait to find out what he says about tonight.

timdogs17

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Posts: 15453

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 9:41 AM ET #255

Bator... What's the play(s) tonight?

jlt9889

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 4453

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 9:45 AM ET #256

is tonight's game about home court advantage or the better team?
this is who you should be betting your money on. that is it. there is nothing else to think about. SPURS is the better team and any time the better team is getting points you POUND and you POUND and POUND until you cannot POUND any more. do you honestly believe lebron will go off again? if he does ok i was wrong and miami was the better team who showed up. but overall san antonio is just too well balanced for this miami team. good luck gentlemen to all with your picks it will be fun. just hoping for another competitve game instead of a blowout either way.

MrBator

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Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 10:15 AM ET #257

On ESPN's First Take, Stephen A. just called it 96-93 for the Spurs tonight. Skip Bayless went first and called it 98-95 for the Spurs. Only one thing is for sure. The Spurs will not win by exactly 3 points, lol.

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 11:17 AM ET #258

Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

On ESPN's First Take, Stephen A. just called it 96-93 for the Spurs tonight. Skip Bayless went first and called it 98-95 for the Spurs. Only one thing is for sure. The Spurs will not win by exactly 3 points, lol.

Bayless is on the Spurs??

At least Stephen A didn't flip flop out of his pick. He chose the Spurs before game 6 and is sticking with them (although he might have chosen the heat to begin with).

“@FakeSportsCentr: Next on First Take: Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith debate if the Spurs should rest their stars in Game 7”

long1000

Prospect

Joined: May, 2013

Posts: 17

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 11:47 AM ET #259

Miami ML 99.9% win

dopeman

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Posts: 1574

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 11:49 AM ET #260

1984	Jun 12, 1984	Boston Celtics	111-102	Los Angeles Lakers	9	Boston Garden	Box Score
1988	Jun 21, 1988	Los Angeles Lakers	108-105	Detroit Pistons	3	The Forum	Box Score
1994	Jun 22, 1994	Houston Rockets	90-84	New York Knicks	6	The Summit	Box Score
2005	Jun 23, 2005	San Antonio Spurs	81-74	Detroit Pistons	7	SBC Center	Box Score
2010	Jun 17, 2010	Los Angeles Lakers	83-79	Boston Celtics	4	Staples Center	Box Score

dopeman

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Posts: 1574

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 11:49 AM ET #261

last few game 7 of nba finals, 3rd last column is margin of victory

linewatcher

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Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 11:57 AM ET #262

Quote Originally Posted by long1000:

Miami ML 99.9% win

Wow. You're giving the spurs a .1% chance to win this game?

jlt9889

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Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 4453

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 12:18 PM ET #263

everybody says heat blowout? this is not the same team that won 27 games in a row guys. if they played like that now in the playoffs they would have easily beat spurs 4-2

YourMomIsLovely

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 127

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 1:40 PM ET #264

Here's how I'm betting this game:

Miami 1Q spread, Miami 1H spread

Spurs 2H spread, Spurs 2H moneyline, Spurs FullGame moneyline placed at halftime (could be a juicy +500/+600) at that point.

I think the Spurs are the better team. Miami will go for the knockout blow early and won't succeed entirely. Spurs regroup and start beating that arse like they've done in recent games. As the Spurs comeback this time, the Miami pansies choke and let them win the game.

It'll be a rollercoaster but the Spurs will become 5-time NBA champs.

MrBator

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Posts: 53233

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 2:01 PM ET #265

I mistyped earlier when I said that Stephen A. and Skip both picked the Spurs. They both picked the Heat to win, but by virtue of their predicted scores, they both picked the Spurs to cover the spread. So, to clarify, Skip went first and said Heat 98 Spurs 95, and Stephen A. followed up with Heat 96 Spurs 93.

kaponofor3

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Posts: 35430

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 2:11 PM ET #266

Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

I mistyped earlier when I said that Stephen A. and Skip both picked the Spurs. They both picked the Heat to win, but by virtue of their predicted scores, they both picked the Spurs to cover the spread. So, to clarify, Skip went first and said Heat 98 Spurs 95, and Stephen A. followed up with Heat 96 Spurs 93.

That makes far more sense, I was totally floored that Skip and Stephen A. both went with the road team.

scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 2:25 PM ET #267

So Stephen A did flip flop on his original spurs pick before game 6....

True to form.

doliver517

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Posts: 3083

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 2:28 PM ET #268

Screamin A. Smith & Skip Baseless both picked SAS in 7 at the begining of this series...

Now it actually reaches gm 7 and they both flip

If I was in the presence of either of these knuckleheads and I had a gun with one bullet in it...........

I would actually just shoot myself

collegegambler

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Posts: 16192

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 3:04 PM ET #269

both steven a smith and skip bayless picked the spurs in 7 before game 1 of the series... now we are at the same game 7 they picked beforehand and they are saying the heat win... lmao

collegegambler

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Posts: 16192

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 3:07 PM ET #270

70+ % is on the spurs + the pts tonight.

i think the cheat win by 10+ now. Spurs + the pts is a sucker bet imo

would love to see the spurs win though.

MrBator

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Posts: 53233

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 3:49 PM ET #271

At the Mirage, I just bet a dime on the Spurs +2.5 +190 and a dime on Manure under 12.5 points. But first I had to wait for a degenerate horse player to place his wager in front of me. That degenerate was Ray Romano.

ddjf

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Posts: 2574

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 4:05 PM ET #272

bator i had spurs ml, spurs +7, un191, spurs +7 2h, spurs ml 2h. i slept on the floor tues night

Nflmaestro

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2013

Posts: 101

Posted: Jun. 20, 2013 - 4:05 PM ET #273

Mrbator I believe you are suffering from this condition, in all seriousness: One theorized reason for the recency effect is that these items are still present in working memory when recall is solicited. Items that benefit from neither (the middle items) are recalled most poorly. An additional explanation for the recency effect is related to temporal context: if tested immediately after rehearsal, the current temporal context can serve as a retrieval cue, which would predict more recent items to have a higher likelihood of recall than items that were studied in a different temporal context.

You researched the Miami 2h play meticulosuly and presented it to us with great vigor and excitement and then completely abandoned it based on what you saw in the 1h. And that too, what you saw at the END of the first half. If you are saying that your feel for a game trumps your historical research then I implore you to become a live in game wagering bettor. You would be better served. I know it's hard to get limits down on that stuff though. Truthfully, I have been following and tailing you for over 10 years. I have a t-shirt that says mr bator with your blue covers head on the front that I wore to a covers Super Bowl party one year. I may sound like a geek but I wager just as much as you do in notional dollars per game, that's all relative though but many people on here think it matters more if you wager 10k per game versus $100. It really doesn't.

The point of this post is to have you take a step back and examine this situation from above. You made a comment that implied that because the spurs didn't get blown out game 6 they are toast and popo should have let it get ugly. What were you talking about? Once again you're leaning on the historical numbers in that context but those are the same historical numbers that you trashed at halftime of game 6. Truth of the matter is that the spurs have hung tough in all the games except one. Where the heat tsunami was so strong in the 3q and the game ended more lopsided than it really was. On Tuesday night on the road the spurs never trailed by more than 6 and the opening line for game 7 was 6.5. I know you give credence to the fact that the line has plunged a full point and about 40 "pips" on the ML. I don't know how this one ends up but I already took 6.5 points for 15 units and a small 4 Unit to win 10 on the ML.

If the refs are "letting em play" for the most part, and with a baffled LBJ offensively, I will take the strong fg% shooting spurs and 6.5 points In this scenario.

Good luck

If the refs are "letting em play" for the most part, and with a baffled LBJ offensively, I will take the strong fg% shooting spurs and 6.5 points In this scenario.

Good luck