Posted:
#1
These nba mfkers are really good, can go 3-5 scoreless mins or scoring 15 pts in 2 mins
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I just keep throwing money away with quarters live over/unders
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Posted:
#6
I feel yo pain!!
I get sucked in tailing ppl on the unders for the whole game cuz the T-wolves are gonna lock em down tonight lol..
Live Betting is dangerous.. the juice can be so excessive!
I've found a few scenarios to be the most worthwhile bets:
when a team falls behind by a lot (15-20 points), put a little money on the underdog and even ML, they almost always make a comeback!
Like in the 3rd qtr tonight, you could've had Minn +9.5.. and ML was probably 3/1
I know Live Bets are tempting to play, I'm kicking myself about them nearly every day too!
just try to be more selective and you'll be less frustrated!
GL
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Posted:
#9
Let me tell you 3 things bookies offer simply because they are just not profitable for the bettor:
1) Parlays
2) Player props (even guys fixing their own ones can't win em)
3) live bets
You will never get any value on a live bet. The bookie's live feeds are 30 seconds ahead of you. The computer formulas are smarter than you. It's basically a coin flip.
This game the over was 208ish. Cashed easy. Pregame is where the value is.
The halftime live line on this game was 218.5. it didn't go over until that very last dunk even tho it looked like it would be over 225 easy at one point.
Live betting exists because half the people who make a bet will panic when they are down early, try and buy out of it, and half the time they get middled and lose or if they split they lose the juice, or else their team comes back and wins and they cancel out their original winning bet.
And it's a very slippery slope. Guys can end up with all kinds of bets at different numbers on a game and practically need an excel spreadsheet to keep track and figure out what needs to happen to be in a profit.
You'll get people coming on now telling us all how they can win on live betting but trust me 90% of people aren't smart enough to do it. You can't beat the pregame lines consistently but now you think you're gonna make better decisions during the game when you're overreacting to everything that just happened?
As was mentioned the one thing I like to do is take a team down big at the half and take the plus points. But not so much in playoff games despite the blown leads a few times lately most games it's been one sided the other team hasn't comeback but regular season yeah.
Especially the NFL I noticed if a team is up 10+ points not only does the other team come back, the reason it happens is the other team fails to score any TDs or a single point in the 2nd. That's why it all looks fixed to come down tonthe wire so many times it's happened. Look at both super bowls the chiefs just won. If they're up 20 points even better. They just forget suddenly how to find the end zone.
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Posted:
#11
Quote Originally Posted by NutinButtLove:
Let me tell you 3 things bookies offer simply because they are just not profitable for the bettor: 1) Parlays 2) Player props (even guys fixing their own ones can't win em) 3) live bets You will never get any value on a live bet. The bookie's live feeds are 30 seconds ahead of you. The computer formulas are smarter than you. It's basically a coin flip. This game the over was 208ish. Cashed easy. Pregame is where the value is. The halftime live line on this game was 218.5. it didn't go over until that very last dunk even tho it looked like it would be over 225 easy at one point. Live betting exists because half the people who make a bet will panic when they are down early, try and buy out of it, and half the time they get middled and lose or if they split they lose the juice, or else their team comes back and wins and they cancel out their original winning bet. And it's a very slippery slope. Guys can end up with all kinds of bets at different numbers on a game and practically need an excel spreadsheet to keep track and figure out what needs to happen to be in a profit. You'll get people coming on now telling us all how they can win on live betting but trust me 90% of people aren't smart enough to do it. You can't beat the pregame lines consistently but now you think you're gonna make better decisions during the game when you're overreacting to everything that just happened? As was mentioned the one thing I like to do is take a team down big at the half and take the plus points. But not so much in playoff games despite the blown leads a few times lately most games it's been one sided the other team hasn't comeback but regular season yeah. Especially the NFL I noticed if a team is up 10+ points not only does the other team come back, the reason it happens is the other team fails to score any TDs or a single point in the 2nd. That's why it all looks fixed to come down tonthe wire so many times it's happened. Look at both super bowls the chiefs just won. If they're up 20 points even better. They just forget suddenly how to find the end zone.
Let me tell you 3 things bookies offer simply because they are just not profitable for the bettor: 1) Parlays 2) Player props (even guys fixing their own ones can't win em) 3) live bets You will never get any value on a live bet. The bookie's live feeds are 30 seconds ahead of you. The computer formulas are smarter than you. It's basically a coin flip. This game the over was 208ish. Cashed easy. Pregame is where the value is. The halftime live line on this game was 218.5. it didn't go over until that very last dunk even tho it looked like it would be over 225 easy at one point. Live betting exists because half the people who make a bet will panic when they are down early, try and buy out of it, and half the time they get middled and lose or if they split they lose the juice, or else their team comes back and wins and they cancel out their original winning bet. And it's a very slippery slope. Guys can end up with all kinds of bets at different numbers on a game and practically need an excel spreadsheet to keep track and figure out what needs to happen to be in a profit. You'll get people coming on now telling us all how they can win on live betting but trust me 90% of people aren't smart enough to do it. You can't beat the pregame lines consistently but now you think you're gonna make better decisions during the game when you're overreacting to everything that just happened? As was mentioned the one thing I like to do is take a team down big at the half and take the plus points. But not so much in playoff games despite the blown leads a few times lately most games it's been one sided the other team hasn't comeback but regular season yeah. Especially the NFL I noticed if a team is up 10+ points not only does the other team come back, the reason it happens is the other team fails to score any TDs or a single point in the 2nd. That's why it all looks fixed to come down tonthe wire so many times it's happened. Look at both super bowls the chiefs just won. If they're up 20 points even better. They just forget suddenly how to find the end zone.
great insight here. The value is in the pre game lines.
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