Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
93 - 67 @ 58% for +19.3 Units
Wed, 03/02
#1: Chicago Bulls -3.5
Bulls are on fire right now going 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Hawks are 3-6 ATS in their last 9. This is Atlanta’s first home game after a long 7 game road-trip that ended with a loss @ Denver. Now they face a Chicago team that is holding their opponents to 80 ppg in their last 3. Not going to be easy for Atlanta, who are averaging 90 ppg on 43% from the field in their last 5. That being said, the key to this play is the following: Bulls are 5-1 ATS against ‘winning’ teams in their last 6 games. Hawks, on the other hand, are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games facing a ‘winning’ squad. (I’ve talked about this when I faded them 2 times in a row over the last couple of days). Now they get to face what might be the ‘hottest’ team in the league. Interestingly, their next 6 games are against ‘winning’ teams: CHI (today), OKC, NYK, LAL, @CHI, POR. Hmm…. I might ‘fade’ ‘em in all of these ;)
#2: San Antonio Spurs -9
I know the Spurs got smoked last night and are playing on a 2nd of a b2b, but that’s part of the reason for this play. In my opinion, this line is deflated due to how San Antonio looked last night. I have Spurs at -13 in this one and will gladly take 4 points of ‘value’. Cavs are dealing with their own major injury, to their best player in Jamison. No Mo Williams, no Jamison, no Baron Davis (he’s not ready). Where will the scoring come from? Spurs are 4-1 ATS after a blow-out loss this year and 6-2 ATS as a road favorite in this spread-range. None of their starters played more than 27 mins last night so I expect this team to be ready to play the WORST team in the league and get an easy cover tonight.
#3: Detroit Pistons -5
The Wolves are 4-25 (14%) on the road this year. At -5 point spread, whoever is backing them, is pretty much hoping for a 4 point loss. So why the heck is the majority of the public backing this pathetic Minny team? Surely they’re all thinking about the ‘supposed mutiny’ that is going on with the Pistons, but to me this is ‘old’ story already. Hamilton met with the coach, Dumars voices his support, and Rip finally played in yesterday’s game. Hamilton was rusty, but it should be much easier today against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. At the same time, Minny is becoming one of the worst offensive teams as well, averaging 94 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5. Both teams are on a 2nd of b2b but Minnesota is actually playing their 3rd in 4 nights, while Detroit had 2 days off prior to their game @ Milwaukee yesterday. In addition, the Pistons have ‘revenge’ here and they’re 22-19 ATS in ‘revenge’ scenarios this season. Not great, but definitely an indication that this team takes these scenarios seriously. Pistons are 5-0-1 ATs in their last 6 as a home favorite in this spread-range and they’re 5-1 ATS in the last 6 playing with zero rest. The favorite is 9-4 ATS between these 2 teams and I see no reason why Pistons don’t cover this short # tonight.
#4: Denver Nuggets -6.5
Nuggz are one of the hottest teams right now going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and I see no reason not to back them at home in this ‘revenge’ scenario tonight. The Bobcats beat Denver in early December, 100-98 on their own home court. They shot 50% from the field and both Wallace and Tyrus Thomas combined for 36 points in that one. Neither will be available tonight. Stephen Jackson will have to pick up the slack in this one, but he only shot 36% from the field in the first meeting between the teams. Now in altitude, and having to face this deep Nuggz team that will be looking to ‘run-and-gun’, will make things even more difficult for Jackson and Co. The Nuggz have beaten Charlotte by an average margin of 13 ppg in their last 3 meetings here and are actually 5-1 ATS against them in the last 6 meetings at home. They are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as a home favorite, and I like them to get a DD win tonight.
93 - 67 @ 58% for +19.3 Units
Wed, 03/02
#1: Chicago Bulls -3.5
Bulls are on fire right now going 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Hawks are 3-6 ATS in their last 9. This is Atlanta’s first home game after a long 7 game road-trip that ended with a loss @ Denver. Now they face a Chicago team that is holding their opponents to 80 ppg in their last 3. Not going to be easy for Atlanta, who are averaging 90 ppg on 43% from the field in their last 5. That being said, the key to this play is the following: Bulls are 5-1 ATS against ‘winning’ teams in their last 6 games. Hawks, on the other hand, are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games facing a ‘winning’ squad. (I’ve talked about this when I faded them 2 times in a row over the last couple of days). Now they get to face what might be the ‘hottest’ team in the league. Interestingly, their next 6 games are against ‘winning’ teams: CHI (today), OKC, NYK, LAL, @CHI, POR. Hmm…. I might ‘fade’ ‘em in all of these ;)
#2: San Antonio Spurs -9
I know the Spurs got smoked last night and are playing on a 2nd of a b2b, but that’s part of the reason for this play. In my opinion, this line is deflated due to how San Antonio looked last night. I have Spurs at -13 in this one and will gladly take 4 points of ‘value’. Cavs are dealing with their own major injury, to their best player in Jamison. No Mo Williams, no Jamison, no Baron Davis (he’s not ready). Where will the scoring come from? Spurs are 4-1 ATS after a blow-out loss this year and 6-2 ATS as a road favorite in this spread-range. None of their starters played more than 27 mins last night so I expect this team to be ready to play the WORST team in the league and get an easy cover tonight.
#3: Detroit Pistons -5
The Wolves are 4-25 (14%) on the road this year. At -5 point spread, whoever is backing them, is pretty much hoping for a 4 point loss. So why the heck is the majority of the public backing this pathetic Minny team? Surely they’re all thinking about the ‘supposed mutiny’ that is going on with the Pistons, but to me this is ‘old’ story already. Hamilton met with the coach, Dumars voices his support, and Rip finally played in yesterday’s game. Hamilton was rusty, but it should be much easier today against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. At the same time, Minny is becoming one of the worst offensive teams as well, averaging 94 ppg on 40% shooting in their last 5. Both teams are on a 2nd of b2b but Minnesota is actually playing their 3rd in 4 nights, while Detroit had 2 days off prior to their game @ Milwaukee yesterday. In addition, the Pistons have ‘revenge’ here and they’re 22-19 ATS in ‘revenge’ scenarios this season. Not great, but definitely an indication that this team takes these scenarios seriously. Pistons are 5-0-1 ATs in their last 6 as a home favorite in this spread-range and they’re 5-1 ATS in the last 6 playing with zero rest. The favorite is 9-4 ATS between these 2 teams and I see no reason why Pistons don’t cover this short # tonight.
#4: Denver Nuggets -6.5
Nuggz are one of the hottest teams right now going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and I see no reason not to back them at home in this ‘revenge’ scenario tonight. The Bobcats beat Denver in early December, 100-98 on their own home court. They shot 50% from the field and both Wallace and Tyrus Thomas combined for 36 points in that one. Neither will be available tonight. Stephen Jackson will have to pick up the slack in this one, but he only shot 36% from the field in the first meeting between the teams. Now in altitude, and having to face this deep Nuggz team that will be looking to ‘run-and-gun’, will make things even more difficult for Jackson and Co. The Nuggz have beaten Charlotte by an average margin of 13 ppg in their last 3 meetings here and are actually 5-1 ATS against them in the last 6 meetings at home. They are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as a home favorite, and I like them to get a DD win tonight.
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Cats are looking for La La at home , I think they will not give a shit in this game as usually between those two. Good Luck tonight bodio 
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