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HARD8's HOT NBA TRENDS- SHOOOOOTS

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by PacmanJr_00:

LaC -2.5 -125 3Q



I got LAC -2 -115

MINN -1 1/2 -115

Luono


 
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Posted: #102
no gordon for lac
 
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Posted: #103
i have clippers -1 -110 at 5 dimes  for the 3rd q
and minn -1 at -110 for 3rd q
 
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Posted: #104
Is the Clippers just gonna lay down at Home?

730champ, thanks for the info.  I'm not watching any games, so no idea what's going on.

You might be right- we'll fade teams that aren't 100%
 
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Posted: #105

Quote Originally Posted by hard8:

Is the Clippers just gonna lay down at Home?

730champ, thanks for the info.  I'm not watching any games, so no idea what's going on.

You might be right- we'll fade teams that aren't 100%

 

 

maybe a no play if teams are missing key players

 
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Posted: #106
Phoenix -1 on the 3Q chaser

Utah Jazz -1 1/2. 

New York +1 1/2 on the 3Q opposite play


San Antonio -2>>> gotta chase  -1 1/2 for 3Q

Los Angeles Clippers +1/2 and the chase

Today's total is 3-6 (7 if you played Minn 3Q)

I can't keep having days like these...

But I still think there's a lot of value in this system.  I will continue to post to see how well it does.

Mahalos to all
 
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Posted: #107
TUESDAY 11/10 1Q/3Q PLAYS

4 PLAYS TODAY:

Houston+2 >>> Fade Dallas who lost 2 1Q/ 3Q bets; Houston has been

Portland -2>>> Fade Memphis

Chicago +1 >>> Fade Denver Away

Orlando -1>>>> better team

Let's get em today
 
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Posted: #108
Here is a fade play:

I checked past results and if a team is losing by double digits in the 1H then fade them in the 3Q.  Like yesterday with MINN & LAC.

Exceptions: 
New York is an exception for now.  They were down the last 3 games by DD and came back to take 3Q.
Top teams: Boston, Cleveland, Phoenix, Miami, Denver (at home),LAL




 
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Posted: #109

Can you chase all 4 Qtr's?  I just looked at the games since last Friday and no home team lost all 4 Qtr's.  If you are on top of things couldn't you go 1,3,5,10....you would not have lost a game from Friday through Monday.

 

 
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Posted: #110
Airmail26,  The problem with chasing 4Q is not that many books will take 4Q bets at the half or between quarters.  If you have a book that will do that post it so we can have that option. 

UNLESS, you're saying to bet the home team every 4Q at the half.  If that's the case, you might be on to something. 

Are you using any criteria or just looking at each team regardless of point spread? 

I'll back test last year's results and see if it is just a trend now or if it is prevalent.

Thanks for the heads up



 
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Posted: #111

OK, I just did a quick look at the games so far this year.  The home team has only not won a quarter 3 times.  It's 99-3 this year.

So the 3 times it lost you would have lost 57 Units 19 x 3 = 57

The 99 Times they won you would have won 99 Units.  Up 42 units?

No good?

 
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Posted: #112

Yeah, I don't know if you can bet 1Q, 2Q, 3Q and 4Q....that is going to be an issue if you can't.

You'd have to be on top of things to get in the bet between Q's...You are probably right though...They probably don't have it available.

 
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Posted: #113

Quote Originally Posted by hard8:

Airmail26,  The problem with chasing 4Q is not that many books will take 4Q bets at the half or between quarters.  If you have a book that will do that post it so we can have that option. 

UNLESS, you're saying to bet the home team every 4Q at the half.  If that's the case, you might be on to something. 

Are you using any criteria or just looking at each team regardless of point spread? 

I'll back test last year's results and see if it is just a trend now or if it is prevalent.

Thanks for the heads up



I wasn't looking at any criteria...just #'s.  The 3 teams that lost all 4 Qtr's were Memphis, Minn and Philly. 

 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by hard8:

TUESDAY 11/10 1Q/3Q PLAYS

4 PLAYS TODAY:

Houston+2 >>> Fade Dallas who lost 2 1Q/ 3Q bets; Houston has been

Portland -2>>> Fade Memphis

Chicago +1 >>> Fade Denver Away

Orlando -1>>>> better team

Let's get em today
Might be nice to start a new thread. This one is 5 pages deep already. Are you playing the same numbers for both the 1st and 3rd quarters? 6 bets today right? 
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

Might be nice to start a new thread. This one is 5 pages deep already. Are you playing the same numbers for both the 1st and 3rd quarters? 6 bets today right? 
I meant 8 plays tonight right?
 
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Posted: #116

OK, just did quick tally on 1st and 3rd Qtr's.  Home team winning 1 of the 2 Qtr's is 83-19 this year. (No spread involved in that stat)

That would mean 83 Units won and 76 Units lost.

Which after juice would be -0.6 Units.

OK, that's probably no help....I need to find somewhere that allows all 4Q bets.

 
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Posted: #117
can we get an updated record with this system??
 
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Posted: #118
BB,

The system is to play a team in the 1Q and if it loses, play the same team in the 3Q and double up your bet to chase.   If you have a push then there is no chase- don't play the 3Q.

I noticed that most of the time a team will either cover one or the other.  The trick is to limit the amount of teams that lose both 1Q and 3Q bets.  And if possible get as many 1Q wins as possible- so there is no chase.

I know that this thread is 5 pages deep- but the explanation of the system and the progression to where it is now and where it'll be by the end of the season is documented.  If we are able to tweak it so that it is consistently producing winners, I'll have a thread for each day.


 
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Posted: #119
bolson5= tout=
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by redsox5831:

can we get an updated record with this system??


redsox5831-

Started super hot at 9-0

then cooled off at  3-4 with the 4 being double bets so actually it's 12-8 at 60%

With the filters I've put in 3 of the 4 losses could've been avoided.


 
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Posted: #121

They are everywhere today...just waiting for a 7-0 day.  They went 3-12 the two days before.

 
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Posted: #122

Just did a quick home favorites tally for the year.

They are 58-11 so far.  (Keep in mind that is just winning the quarter, no spread involved.) 

That would put you up about 9.2 units assuming they all won...which is an assumption only!!

That is also with no handicapping of your own.

I am going to try and track this a little bit going forward and see if any trends form.  For now I might just do hame favorites and see what happens.

 

 
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Posted: #123
Airmail26,
Thanks for checking that angle.  I checked last year for 2 months.  I only tracked home faves though cuz I didn't have time to do a thorough search.  It came back at 95-74 with the home fave covering the 4Q.  This is approx. 56%
 
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Posted: #124
So Bookmaker has all 4 Qtrs listed right now.  Are those going to come down when the game starts...or will they come down when each quarter is finished?  I assume they would come down at tip off.  I also want to keep looking for somewhere that lets you bet all 4 Qtr's.  99-3 sounds good to me.
 
 
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