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HARD8's HOT NBA TRENDS- SHOOOOOTS

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Posted: #1
I had 2 threads that I am combining into one thread.  It'll make it easier for me to find so I can keep posting.

I've seen some trends in 1st half & 2nd halfs; so I started posting- and it turned out to be pretty good until Friday when there were a lot of games and the trends ended up tanking.

I also started posting 1Q & 3Q plays based from a system I saw in the systems & strategies forum.  This system is .  The idea is to bet a team on the 1st quarter and if it doesn't hit, chase them in the 3Q.  If you win or lose, that's it- no more chasing.  I back tested this system using last years data.  I got anywhere from 68%- 85% depending on criteria.  The object is to try to hit as many games in the 1Q as possible, so you don't have to chase.  But if you do chase, it's almost guaranteed to hit in the 3Q.  So, I'm trending teams on this system to try and hit 1Q bets.

Let's make some
 
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Posted: #2
Sunday 11/8 plays:

1Q plays;

Detroit -1/2

Wash pick

Orlando 1 1/2

Minnesota +4

New Orleans +2 1/2

Remember if this doesn't hit, double up and bet them on the 3Q.


 
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Posted: #3
which teams do you play 1st quarter.What I am asking is which teams you playing like home or away favored or non favored please explain
 
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Posted: #4
DISCLAIMER-

Don't play these if you can't play the 3Q. 
 
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Posted: #5
Back testing the system, I looked at Home Dogs, Home Faves &
Away Faves.  The system did really well at high 60%+

So, I went back to determine why some games weren't hitting and decided to fade if it continually happened.  This is the result I came up with.

Home Dogs came back at 85% hitting the 1Q or 3Q.

Home Faves came back at 68%

Away Faves came back at 74%

So now, I am trending each team to also determine which team is losing 1Q & 3Q bet>>>> cuz if you lose the both bets, you'll be down 3 units from the chase.
 
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Posted: #6
how do you decide which team to pick for the 1Q play?
 
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Posted: #7
The great thing about this system is it'll hit either the 1Q or the 3Q but it'll seldom hits both.

So anyone can basically, look at 1Q and play opposite the 3Q and it'll win more than it'll lose.  This might even be a better way to play it.  Except books usually change the lines especially if a favored team is down.  Yesterday, if you played the 3Q opposite of 1Q, you would've gone 5-2. 

Yesterday I went 4-0 on posted plays with one being a chase in the 3Q.  I also played NY in the 3Q because the trend showed they would win in the 3Q.  The goal is to hit the 1Q bet- then you don't have to chase.  And if you do hit it, there's the option of going opposite in the 3Q is also a possible play.
 
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Posted: #8
The way I decide which team to play is based on the trends of each team, based on filters that hit on games last year, and fades I've compiled.

Today, LAL and NO are both plays but I chose NO because they've hit as away dogs.  LAL lost both bets as home faves earlier in the season.  If NO hits 1q, then it's a play for LAL in the 3Q and vice versa.  If LAL hits 1Q, there's a play on NO in 3Q- the chase.

Hope that explains everything.
 
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Posted: #9
Hard8, if you keep going like this, i'll be able to finance a trip to hawaii and visit you
 
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Posted: #10
LL,
If I keep going like this, I'll own Hawaii
 
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Posted: #11
Detroit -1/2

Wash pick

Who's got the now that you won both early games- to play opposite and catch Phoenix & Philadelphia in the 3Q.

Phoenix has lost both 1Q & 3Q bets as away faves.

Philadelphia has not lost as away dogs, but lost both as home fave and home dog. 

Still got plenty time to look at it.





 
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Posted: #12
So hard your saying no matter what team wins the 1st quarter play opposite the 3rd quarter

 
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Posted: #13
Something else I noticed:

Detroit won both 1Q/3Q bets as a home dog 3 games ago playing Orlando. 
 
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Posted: #14
definetly worth following.. wish i had tailed the first 2 plays
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Luongo:

So hard your saying no matter what team wins the 1st quarter play opposite the 3rd quarter



That's why I'm trending each team.  I want to get as much data to make a good pick- 1Q or 3Q.  The teams I pick will hopefully hit in the high 90s in the 1Q or 3Q. 

If you play opposite it'll hit at a good %, but you'll have to play all of them.  You don't want to play just a couple... lose, and say the system sucks.  Yesterday if you picked Denver & Boston as your 1Q & 3Q bets and stopped you would've lost 6 units, been dejected and scrapped the system.  If you played the rest of the day, you would've won all the other games.
 
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Posted: #16
The lines are:

Phoenix pick

Philadelphia -1/2
 
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Posted: #17
I like Phoenix at 1/2 unit just to see.

Philadelphia has lost both bets the last 2 games so no play.
 
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Posted: #19
nice job hard, way to go both opposites hit amazing
 
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Posted: #20
So we're gonna meet in honolulu to watch the NBA-finals?
 
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Posted: #21
impressive..
 
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Posted: #22
hard please add me as a friend thanks
 
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Posted: #23
Me too :)
 
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Posted: #24
I'm glad I'm not watching the games.  I'd be a total wreck

Did I tell you guys that this system was .


Back testing confirmed that this system will hit A LOT!!!


 
 
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Posted: #25
i
Quote Originally Posted by LarryLeGrand:

So we're gonna meet in honolulu to watch the NBA-finals?


I'd rather meet in VEGAS

I always wanted to own a casino
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