Funk's NBA bets - 2013/2014

For those who just asked questions just setup, you just can't come here to ask "can I play this, can I play that? or what do you think of this team and that team" The board is not for you, when you come to gamble, you should know what to bet or what not to bet. If you don't know anything like that, my advice for you "do not gamble" because in the long run you will lose. You can't lucky all the time.

This board is for you to come to share the information you may have or you can get the information from him (FunFreaker) If he play the game he will post it, don't force him to post if he doesn't see a good game.

For tonight, I'm confident with Miami will crush out Indiana Pacers. A very strong play for me, double up units you used to play.

Double play: Miami Heat -3 over Indiana Pacers

This retaliation won't forgettable, Pacers can't even beat Detroit at home last game and now travel to Miami.

MACKY

Long time don't see you here what's up man. I'm still didn't research tonight schedule and i haven't got nothing. I will check with big attention the top game of the night but on first sight like Heat tonight

The schedule is so rich tonight and is really hard to concentrate on the games. Hate such a schedules because i'm confident about 6-7 games and it's hard to pick just 2-3 strongest because more of the time other leans are better than "the strongest". In fact tonight i'm expecting "under party". We have 12 games... I think tonight under will hit more than "over".

Wednesday:

Bobcats at Raptors - Under 190.5
5.5 units (to win 5)

Just this for now because the line is dropping.

Also like:

ATS: Mavs, Wolves, Hawks, Spurs
Totals: Under on biggest lines Wolves and Clippers, also on Celtics

Hold on this play please... Lebron James's ankle is not looking good, he's at game time decision. I'm sorry.

FunFreaker, I stop by sometime to visit you and hope you doing well. I am not used to play many games, just play some time that I feel confident.

Wednesday:

Bobcats at Raptors - Under 190.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------------------
Pistons at Celtics - Under 195
5.5 units (to win 5)

Wednesday:

Bobcats at Raptors - Under 190.5
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------------------
Pistons at Celtics - Under 195
5.5 units (to win 5)
---------------------------------------------------------------
Blazers at Wolves - Under 213
4.4 units (to win 4)
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Knicks at Bucks - Under 186.5
4.4 units (to win 4)

Let the "under party" begin

Lebron will play tonight

I take Miami - 4 and Minesota -2

Since Lebron James is not 100%, I take Miami just a single play, and also Minesota minus points, Portland could be tired tonight on b2b game. Minesota are matchup well with Portland.

Like both MACKY. 1-1 is a minimum here IMO. I hope you will hit 2-0 tonight. I played only boring totals. Too much games for picking... i like short schedules for ATS. If first two unders runs good maybe i'll add another more on Clippers. Just have a feel that this will be my under night which i'm waiting from start of the season

My unders are total fail. 1-3 will  be best so far... Can't believe Raptors game went over....

Nice under party... two OT's... My four posted ATS leans: Mavs, Wolves, Hawks, Spurs all good. It's good that i played them with small cash and now the night was not so awful. I'm officially done with totals for this season. Just non-sence to become gambler and losing money on some numbers. From today i stop tracking my Totals record because i won't ever play any total until end of the season. Just concentrate on ATS and picking winners. Like last night .

ATS: 43 - 39  = 52.4 %

Units: - 35

I keep units balance because totals suffered losses from last night. Sometimes you need to take radical decisions if you want to be profitable. Last three seasons i was on profit in totals but tendency was that in the first i have best profit and last season the worst. Now i'm even behind from this bets... so maybe i'm lose somewhere and i don't like the numbers. So big concentration and only ATS from me fellas. You don't need to ask me anything about totals because i don't care about them anymore and i won't research them. If i found something cool like the "Grizzlies winning trend against b2b" I'll post it. If you find something good and profitable in long term post it. But to lose my valuable time for some OT moose jobs and raining threes like open layups... no way, I have head on my shoulders and if i see that something doesn't look good... i'll stay away of it. From now I will play less ATS games... sometimes with more units. I have huge bankroll (thanks to soccer who gives me over 200 units profit from september till today) so sometimes i'll try more huge plays when i'm completely confident until i convert my units balance color to green. After that I will change to my regular 5.5 bets probably.

GL fellas and don't mess with totals. That is my advice.

Hey funk as a follower respect that are going to cease the totals but you are only a couple of units down and it is a long season.   Possibly you are giving weight to some teams that have changed their style from previous seasons eg celtics seem to no longer play d like they could with doc rivers coaching and Garnett playing

Tigers2013 This is my 4th season serious betting in NBA (with solid bankroll and solid bets). As you know i'm on + profit in all three (only posting in the last... for previous two you have my word as a honest man). When i look my percentages i see that in all three seasons my ATS record is better than Totals with 2-4 %... so i finally decide to get rid of the totals and instead to take only ATS (this means much less bets) with more money. I think this is the best spot to do that and finish the season with great profit. I can't say that won't ever play totals but that will be very rare.... really very. Maybe if i found some great trend like my Memphis unders in b2b could pull the trigger. But my numbers and intuition tells me that more money on ATS is better than even money on both.... 

I'm leaning Thunder - 13 but really don't think that i will pull the trigger. If you remember somewhere in the pages here i post a trend for OKC ATS record this and last two seasons against b2b and the numbers were huge in favor to Thunder. Later i will post if i found something in the other game. GL man

Good deal on adjusting your game, but don't just vaporize your O/U record and your total wins/losses from your running record.  

Good luck with spreads Funk, but the truth is it's quite opposite... It's easier to cap totals, actually no idea do you cap games and how you do it, but when you cap, you cap total firstly and based on it make ATS pick...

Kind of weird to have those stats on such a big sample (more than three full seasons)...

QuidProQuo I average 56.7 % in last three seasons (almost 58% in ATS - i running my statistic on paper since then). Last season i'm 58.1 % overall (59.4 % ATS) in posted bets (my thread link is in my first post in this thread). And you know what near 60% mean in handicapping. This numbers are nothing for you fellas however i didn't post here my first two winning seasons. Before that i played NBA from time to time couple of years with negative balance... just didn't know how to handicap correctly. Maybe you are better on totals than sides... i'm opposite... but for me totals has more gamble side and losing streak is more probable for this bet (IMO). And i can't say that i cap total first and after that choose my ATS side. But everybody here has different systems and playing style 

uclalumnus I'll post them just for people to see why i'm not betting on totals anymore. If i sometimes choose some total for play will update it

ATS: 43 - 39  = 52.4 %
O/U: 29 - 33 = 46.8 % = (no more play on totals)


I'm on 50% now.

My experience points me that it's easy to stay away from ATS in game than Totals. They every time will be more temptation which is worse for me. But this is only my point of view.

Last year Spurs visited Warriors twice in b2b:

101-107 0&1 (L)
106-116 0&2 (L)
2 ATS wins for GSW

For all last season b2b is 4-11 ATS with avg line 4.6 and 2-13 SU. This season the results are ATS: 4-3-0 avg line: 8.6... worse record but you see that the avg line is up with 4 points.

2011/12:

107-101 0&1 (W)

1 ATS win for SA

You see high scoring games. More than line today.

More statistics:

When b2b is at road against GSW:

This season: O/U: 5-2-0 (5.79, 71.4%)    avg total: 204.9
Last season: O/U: 10-5-0 (-0.53, 66.7%) avg total: 201.5

Spurs are without Parker tonight. My leans are:

Warriors - 3 (i will wait for better line cause it's drop)
Over here is good too.

When a b2b is at road against Thunder:

This season:

ATS:     0-4-0 (-9.00, 0.0%)       avg line: 6.5

Mavericks     Thunder     away     93-107 (-14)
Clippers     Thunder     away     91-105  (-14)
Timberwolves     Thunder     away     103-113 (-10)
Pacers     Thunder     away     94-118 (-24)

-15.50 avg margin in 4 winnings

Last season:

SU: 1-8 -16.11 avg margin in 8 winnings
ATS:  3-6-0 (-4.67, 33.3%) avg line: 11.4

11/12 season:

SU: 0-7 -17.14 avg margin in 7 winnings
ATS:  2-5-0 (-7.00, 28.6%) avg line: 10.1

Leaning: Thunder - 13

My observations are that in TNT thursday often one of the games is win by the public and the other not. So i expect tonight two scenarios: both favs or both dogs. Numbers are in favor to favorites. But these are just numbers.
 

FunkFreaker, that's what happened to me too, I know how you feel about total play. Back in the past I have the same philosophy like you such as: If I play total, I would always doing research and play UNDER, never play OVER the total, but in the long run it doesn't workout for me. I just lost on the night those players getting hot and shooting the 3's and overtime killing me. When I lose on overtime like that, it's really hurt because the game I suppose to win but I lost. We cap the game they suppose to play 48 minutes but they play 53', yesterday they play 58', that's suck!

I'm glad if your decision is working out for you, I would still play the total but it's very very seldom.

I have some team on my black list that I won't never put money on them until I see something change.

1) Chicago (this is a really bad team, can't shot, can't hit free throw)

2) Memphis (this is an very overrated team)

3) Utah (no deep thread)

4) Philadelphia (no defend)

Putting money on those team just like you throw money out of windows.

For tonight, Chicago is playing, I don't put a penny on them but for sure I'll put my money on Oklahoma ML, this is a free money if you play on money line.

I lean on Golden St +3 on this game, San Antonio in b2b and tired, I know San Antonio own Golden St in many years (20-2) but they lost the last two game at Golden St.

GL Funk

MACKY  GSW have 4 wins over SA last season (2 regular and 2 playoff games)

Funk, I just count on regular season, the post season they played more physical and harder. This game is on regular season

Funk, look like GS is my play today. They are almost healthy, the only missing piece is back up center Jermaine O'Neal

 

Maybe i will pull the trigger too

Thursday:

Thunder - 13
5.5 units (to win 5)
-----------------------------------------
Warriors - 6
5.5 units (to win 5)



I catch Warriors about half an hour ago on - 6. Really don't expect this news for Manu and Tim. Now i see that it's even 6.5 in most of the books. I hope they will cover.