Posted:
#26
Congrats to everyone who tailed.
4-0 
-- Take a leap of faith
1
Froggy's Ultimate Quarter System
Posted:
#30
I was able to add another filter to the system. I'm not sure why it's only now that I've considered this addition, but as always, it's better late then never. Outside of the Back-to-Back and 3 games in 4 nights combination filter, I added the vanilla Back-to-Back filter. Out of the 153 games that the system had picked without the new filter, I lost a total of 3 games... however, one of those games was a 20-unit loss match-up. The new record would have stood at 149-1 (wow!) ... I know this is all theoretical, but a less than 1% loss is a massive improvement.
The single loss in the system was a game between Grizzlies (Away) vs. Hornets (Home) on Jan 1st, 2021. The system picked Hornets, but they got swept. I have no idea how to filter out just this one loss. If you guys know something about this matchup that I could identify and incorporate into the system, I'd love to hear about it. If we can somehow filter out this matchup and have a 100% system win rate, this system would be the elusive holy grail of betting systems.
As I mentioned last night, we have Timberwolves on the ticket tonight. Later today, I'll plug in tomorrow's 13 match-ups and provide some expectations. Hopefully, there's a few games we can get involved in. Have a great day, folks. BOL!
-- Take a leap of faith
1
Posted:
#41
@Froggy80
for the first quarter: 68 wins 69 losses on the 137 games. if your unit is $100, you win $6800 , and lose (69 x 110)= -7590 for a net profit of : -790 on the first quarter bets.
my point is : if history refeat itself, the better strategy in to wait & bet 2 units after the first quarter.
0
Posted:
#42
@MTL-EXPOS
I don't think you understand how this system works. It's a martingale system. If 1Q loses, you wager double on the 2Q. If 2Q loses, then your wager is the total wagered for 1Q + 2Q and add 1 unit. If 3Q loses, then your wager is total wagered for 1Q + 2Q + 3Q and add 1 unit. If you win any of the quarters, you will be left with a 1 unit win. If you lose all 4 wagers, you would have lost approximately 20 units. This system, as you helped me find my mistake has a historical record of 137-0 (+137 units). There was no loss. I hope this helps you understand.
-- Take a leap of faith
0
Posted:
#50
If you guys recall, my first post writeup, I stated this, "This is the near-final rendition of my martingale system (I say "near-final" because if I find additional risk-averse angles to exploit, I'll be hard-pressed to include it into the current model)"
The system usually doesn't wager on an away team unless there's a clear and distinct fatigue advantage against the home team. However, this does end up excluding a bunch of otherwise viable matchups. So, instead what I decided to do is to this:
Original Filter:
Only allow for an Away team pick if Home team qualifies for fatigue filter
New Filter:
Allow for an away team pick if Home team qualifies for fatigue filter
-- OR --
Away team DOES NOT have a fatigue disadvantage AND Away team has a power ranking disparity advantage of 8 places or more
How does this alter the results?
We unfortunately do introduce a single loss to the results. However, we also introduce 59 additional wins. The record would stand now at 197-1 (+177 units). This doesn't change our picks for tonight, but obviously helps us with more picks in the future.
Let me know what you guys think.
-- Take a leap of faith
0
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