Posted:
#1
There is no line for this game at the moment as I type this semtence but it doesn't matter. This line could be anywhere from Bulls -3 to Kings -1.5. If the Kings could be favored somehow but a small number like -1 (a push at worst), it won't matter. This will be a statement win, and the kings are in desperate need of making a statement of any kind.
As always, I post the Knicks and Nets (and I have reads on both tonight but like this game more), but if I have been following a team for at least 7 games, I will go outside of my comfort zone and post them. I've been watching the kings closely for 7 games.
If you are dealing with terrible teams (and the kings are one of them), you need a losing team on an upswing (from a betting perspective) vs. a somewhat decent team on a downswing (from a betting perspective and real world perspective), if you are looking for an outright win (which we need because the line is short).
Both these teams fulfill these requirements tonight.
First the team on the downswing:
The Bulls have lost 3 of 5 and haven't covered in 4 of 7. That should really be 5 of 7 given they barely covered a -1.5 pt spread vs. the Bobcats (opened at -2 in some places so it was a push).
What is happening to the Bulls is not unlike what could happen to them from 11/24/13 for a month. They lost 11 of 13 against teams like: the Jazz, the Cavs, the Bucks! They couldn't beat anyone. And then they needed a buzzer beater to beat the Bucks in a revenge spot!
But there was hope. Eventually they'd get Deng back. So what happened after they did? That hope kicked in in 2014. They won 9 of 11 and covered 8 of those games.
Close the door on that Bulls team because that cash cow has left the barn.
They beat the Spurs two games ago you say? Nice but not that big a deal. That was a depleted, tired Spurs team and it showed. The Bulls showed their recent true colors on Saturday against the Pelicans. They couldn't break 80, lost by 9 only because of a very late run in the 4th to make it look respectable, and had Anthony Davis own them, a proud defensive team.
Where is the hope for the Bulls now? Deng is gone. Rose is gone and the Bulls just let Cartier Martin go. Who is Martin? At least he's a guy who can come off an already depleted bench (and one that doesn't raise eyebrows when it comes to talent). Why is Martin to be mentioned here? Thibidou wanted him for the rest of the year.
Nice. Let a bench guy go for what? To ram jimmy butler down our throats . Go look how many minutes he's been playing (60! Against Orlando!). Go look how many minutes to the oft-injured Noah has been playing. And you let bench guys go the head coach wants. He's not a loss in terms of box score but a loss in terms of the direction the team is going, or at least where the GM wants them to be: as SELLERS. Sellers are not winners unless you get huge spreads when it comes to betting. The Bulls are Sellers. Don't invest in Sellers.
Put simply, the organization is trading it's stars, losing them to injury and even when cheap bench players can be retained, they go too. This is not a team you want to be betting on at the moment. Even the wins the Bulls have recently are against the dregs of the league (Lakers, Sixers, Magic). Take out that one spurs win and the bulls don't look much different than a below average team.
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........ Good stuff though...
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