Posted:
#1
You might want to reconsider your plans to bet on the Lakers at Sacramento now that they appear to have finally slowed down, at least ATS-wise, and I think ATS-wise is what most of us really care about. The Lakers went on a sizzling 13-1 ATS tear from January 31st to February 24th. Eleven of those games were played with Pau Gasol, and he was the main reason that the oddsmakers kept getting buried by Laker money. But last Tuesday, the oddsmakers said "Enough of this shit" and finally made their first Ridiculous Line of the Pau Gasol Era in L.A., installing the team as 15.5-point favorites over Portland. After having been feebly beaten with smallish wagers on the crippled Clippers (95-113) and clueless Sonics (91-111), even I fell for the Laker hype and laid 15.5 points like it was going to be another easy one. I don't normally bet like that, but deep down I wanted to see if I had what it took to slow down the Laker juggernaut. Turns out I did. But that personal defeat made me think that maybe it was almost time to begin cashing in on fading bloated Laker lines. Lines for Lakers games are inflated all season long, as we all know, but when the Lakers romped through most of February and thus were tabbed as the trendy favorite to make it out of the West in June, I started looking for the "buy" sign, so to speak. I think that Portland home win/non-cover may have been it.
The Lakers technically covered their next game, 106-88 over the Miami Heat, but the Heat are only technically still a professional basketball team. They simply don't count anymore, and I look at that game as an exhibition only. The next game was the first true test, and again the BookieMan came out with a crazy number, making the Lakers lay 7 at the Rose Garden in Portland, a place where the Lakers have positively sucked over the last several seasons. Well, they sucked again, losing the game and their 10-game winning streak along with it. Even I was smart enough to send it in on Portland in the 1st half and and the 2nd half. Next up was the Mavericks in L.A. I woke up on Sunday to find the Lakers laying an ABSURD seven points to Dallas. I didn't hesitate, taking 4 points in the 1st half and 7 for the game. And for the third game in a row (remember, the Heat don't count), the Lakers struggled mightily with the huge pointspread.
So what I think we've got here is a tipping point that I love to exploit in every sport. A quality team gets on an unusually long hot streak, and just when the oddsmakers start really pumping up the lines, the red-hot team finally cools off. The beauty of it is that the oddsmakers, who were obviously slow to adjust to the team's recent excellent play (for example, the Lakers covering 13 of 14), will now be slow to adjust to the team's inevitable decline in play. The Lakers have failed to cover three striaght games, and if you think the oddsmakers are considering lowering their lines because of it, you're wrong. Even after tonight's likely straight up loss at Arco Arena, the Laker lines for the foreseeable future will still be too high to be considered profitable plays.
Laying 5.5 points at Sacramento, or whatever the number is by gametime, is nuts. It's freakin' nuts! How shortsighted do you have to be to lay points with a wildly overpriced club in the home arena of a scrappy team that this season alone owns 8 straight up home dog wins! Check the schedule. The Kings have gotten points at home, and beaten, the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz (twice), Orlando Magic, Dallas Mavericks, and New Orleans Hornets. The only Western conference power not on that hit list is the Phoenix Suns, who back on November 20th withstood a late rally by the Kings to escape Arco with a 100-98 win. The Kings covered easily that night as a 7.5-point home dog.
So tonight in come the Lakers for their first visit of the season, just when their recent play is tailing off somewhat while their betting lines are bursting at the seams. And the opponent's specialty happens to be that they play their best whenever seriously challenged on their home floor. I'll be fading the Lakers for the third straight game. Probably some 1st half action as well, and definetely a play on the moneyline, too Good luck on whatever you decide to do.
Laker backers, just think about it. You may not think much of the Sacramento Kings, but at 18-10 they're no joke at home. If you think this 5.5-point line is relatively small, believe me, it isn't.
Mr.Bator. 
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