Let down game for Miami after a tough 7 game series including a grueling 4 game stretch after going up 3-0 & an emotional Game 7 win. Then a vry short rest & straight to mile high city.
If i can recall the Heat’s 3 championships all came after losing Game 1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
24-10-1 Playoffs posted
42-18-1 Playoffs
Ended the ECF w/ a 6-0 day
GM7: MIA ML
MIA +8.5
MIA +7.5
MIA +11.5
JIMMY BUTLER OVER 26.5PTS
MIAMI HEAT SERIES
Future: MIAMI HEAT 2023 NBA CHAMPIONS
-------------------------------------------
Leaning:
DEN +8.5
Let down game for Miami after a tough 7 game series including a grueling 4 game stretch after going up 3-0 & an emotional Game 7 win. Then a vry short rest & straight to mile high city.
If i can recall the Heat’s 3 championships all came after losing Game 1
1 gm @ a time for me. I'm wary of this Heat team who's crazy enough to win the gm ( i don't think they do) or at the very least cover. Ref stats may help before i make a decision.
1 gm @ a time for me. I'm wary of this Heat team who's crazy enough to win the gm ( i don't think they do) or at the very least cover. Ref stats may help before i make a decision.
The underdog in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has struggled historically, even though the Celtics found a way to beat the Warriors by 12 points in Game 1 last year. Game 1 NBA Finals dogs are 2-16 SU and 3-15 ATS since 2005 and 4-23 SU and 8-19 ATS since 1996.
The fatigue factor: Teams coming off a seven-game series — like the Heat — are 36-50 (42%) in the following series over the past 35 years. In Game 1 of the following series, they are 33-53 (via @iamrahstradamus).
The last time a road team won Game 1 of the NBA Finals and won the championship was in 2004, when the Pistons defeated the Lakers in five games.
Still, if you like to keep track of historical trends in order to gain some level of feeling on the present, here's how NBA Finals have gone after the road team has won Game 1 since 1990.
2022 Boston Celtics: Lost to Golden State Warriors 2013 San Antonio Spurs: Lost in seven games to the Heat 2004 Detroit Pistons: Won in five games over the Lakers 2001 Philadelphia 76ers: Lost in five games to the Lakers 1995 Houston Rockets: Won in five games over the Magic 1993 Chicago Bulls: Won in six games over the Suns 1991 Los Angeles Lakers: Lost in five games to the Bulls"
"Quick Hitters
The underdog in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has struggled historically, even though the Celtics found a way to beat the Warriors by 12 points in Game 1 last year. Game 1 NBA Finals dogs are 2-16 SU and 3-15 ATS since 2005 and 4-23 SU and 8-19 ATS since 1996.
The fatigue factor: Teams coming off a seven-game series — like the Heat — are 36-50 (42%) in the following series over the past 35 years. In Game 1 of the following series, they are 33-53 (via @iamrahstradamus).
The last time a road team won Game 1 of the NBA Finals and won the championship was in 2004, when the Pistons defeated the Lakers in five games.
Still, if you like to keep track of historical trends in order to gain some level of feeling on the present, here's how NBA Finals have gone after the road team has won Game 1 since 1990.
2022 Boston Celtics: Lost to Golden State Warriors 2013 San Antonio Spurs: Lost in seven games to the Heat 2004 Detroit Pistons: Won in five games over the Lakers 2001 Philadelphia 76ers: Lost in five games to the Lakers 1995 Houston Rockets: Won in five games over the Magic 1993 Chicago Bulls: Won in six games over the Suns 1991 Los Angeles Lakers: Lost in five games to the Bulls"
Marc Davis: Home 6 - Road 7 David Guthrie: Home 8 - Road 4 Ed Malloy: Home 4 - Road 3
= 18 Home - 14 Road
Davis/Malloy ref'd gm2 MIN/DEN. DEN won @Home. Davis/Malloy ref'd gm3 MEM/LAL. LAL won @Home. Guthrie/Malloy ref'd gm6 BOS/PHI. BOS won on Road. Davis.Malloy ref'd gm1 LAL/GSW. LAL won on Road. Davis/Malloy ref'd gm1 MIA/BOS. MIA won on Road. Guthrie/Malloy ref'd gm5 MIA/BOS. BOS won @Home.
So crew chief Davis favors Road team by just a game.
Davis/Malloy have ref'd together 4 times & are 2-2 Home/Road. But when Davis/Malloy ref'd 2 Game 1's the ROAD team won.
The Heat, who have been underdogs in 14 of their 18 games during the playoffs, have defied the odds virtually all postseason, going 9-5 straight up as a 'dog, 11-3 against the spread as a 'dog, and 7-3 ATS as a road 'dog
--------------------------------------
GM1:
MIA +9.5 MIA +12.5
Thankfully had time to do up ref stats & if reading this correctly, including Heat stats as a dog/road dog, it's pointing towards Heat Road team. Denver should win here but i'm looking for Miami to keep it close enough to cover. Miami have lost 7gm's vs Denver going into this game. But every season have played them alot closer to just 4.5pt average losing margin this season. Gm1 dog stats esp coming off 7gm series is concerning. Miami were able to land as soon as gm7 finished booking tickets str8 to Denver instead of Miami so hopefully they've acclimated to the altitude enough to have some legs in the 4th Q.
Marc Davis: Home 6 - Road 7 David Guthrie: Home 8 - Road 4 Ed Malloy: Home 4 - Road 3
= 18 Home - 14 Road
Davis/Malloy ref'd gm2 MIN/DEN. DEN won @Home. Davis/Malloy ref'd gm3 MEM/LAL. LAL won @Home. Guthrie/Malloy ref'd gm6 BOS/PHI. BOS won on Road. Davis.Malloy ref'd gm1 LAL/GSW. LAL won on Road. Davis/Malloy ref'd gm1 MIA/BOS. MIA won on Road. Guthrie/Malloy ref'd gm5 MIA/BOS. BOS won @Home.
So crew chief Davis favors Road team by just a game.
Davis/Malloy have ref'd together 4 times & are 2-2 Home/Road. But when Davis/Malloy ref'd 2 Game 1's the ROAD team won.
The Heat, who have been underdogs in 14 of their 18 games during the playoffs, have defied the odds virtually all postseason, going 9-5 straight up as a 'dog, 11-3 against the spread as a 'dog, and 7-3 ATS as a road 'dog
--------------------------------------
GM1:
MIA +9.5 MIA +12.5
Thankfully had time to do up ref stats & if reading this correctly, including Heat stats as a dog/road dog, it's pointing towards Heat Road team. Denver should win here but i'm looking for Miami to keep it close enough to cover. Miami have lost 7gm's vs Denver going into this game. But every season have played them alot closer to just 4.5pt average losing margin this season. Gm1 dog stats esp coming off 7gm series is concerning. Miami were able to land as soon as gm7 finished booking tickets str8 to Denver instead of Miami so hopefully they've acclimated to the altitude enough to have some legs in the 4th Q.
Denver should win here but i'm looking for Miami to keep it close enough to cover.
Miami were able to land as soon as gm7 finished booking tickets str8 to Denver instead of Miami so hopefully they've acclimated to the altitude enough to have some legs in the 4th Q.
I know this Heat team & felt this was never going to be a blowout. Heat players are vry well conditioned. Prob no better team in the league to handle the altitude in Denver than Miami. They were able to have some legs in the 4th, as predicted, to be able to cover 12pts.
Denver just 11pt win considering facing a tired team that cld not shoot the ball in the ocean. Miami certainly figured something out in the 4Q. Denver sure felt comfortable and sure about themselves didn't they. They haven't felt Miami yet. This series is yet to start.
Just 2FT's for Miami We know the deal about FT disparities. I predict a totally diff game in the 2nd. This shld be 1-1 heading back to Miami. Can smell Zarba or Brothers looming.
Leaning:
Gm2
MIA +8.5
Quote Originally Posted by 3BallBomber:
GM1:
MIA +9.5
MIA +12.5
Denver should win here but i'm looking for Miami to keep it close enough to cover.
Miami were able to land as soon as gm7 finished booking tickets str8 to Denver instead of Miami so hopefully they've acclimated to the altitude enough to have some legs in the 4th Q.
I know this Heat team & felt this was never going to be a blowout. Heat players are vry well conditioned. Prob no better team in the league to handle the altitude in Denver than Miami. They were able to have some legs in the 4th, as predicted, to be able to cover 12pts.
Denver just 11pt win considering facing a tired team that cld not shoot the ball in the ocean. Miami certainly figured something out in the 4Q. Denver sure felt comfortable and sure about themselves didn't they. They haven't felt Miami yet. This series is yet to start.
Just 2FT's for Miami We know the deal about FT disparities. I predict a totally diff game in the 2nd. This shld be 1-1 heading back to Miami. Can smell Zarba or Brothers looming.
BOL - Denver took their foot off the gas in the 4th — only reason it wasn’t a 30 pt win. Not sure I can see Miami coming out of Denver with a win at all in this series but good luck with your plays
@3BallBomber
BOL - Denver took their foot off the gas in the 4th — only reason it wasn’t a 30 pt win. Not sure I can see Miami coming out of Denver with a win at all in this series but good luck with your plays
Gm1 vs MINN: 109-80 - 29pts ....... Gm2 vs MINN: 122-113 - 9pts
Gm1 vs PHX: 125-107 - 18pts ....... Gm2 vs PHX: 97-87 - 10pts
GM1 vs LAL: 132-126 - 6pts ........ GM2 vs LAL: 108-103 - 5pts
= Gm1: ave 17.6pts ....... Gm2: ave 8pts
Denver turns up for gm1s. The following gm that winning margin shrinks significantly. This bodes well for punters taking the points for Miami. That game 2 average is right there w/ gm2 spread -8.5. Heat's calling card is defense, that's how they got this far. You feel good taking reasonable amount of points here w/ a team that's defense oriented.
Heat coming off a grueling 7game series & having just 2 days off made the win that much easier for Nuggets. Still give Den credit but history & rest was on their side. Heat visibly fatigued couldn't put the ball in the ocean, also did not play well defensively. Low energy. Only 2 underdog teams have won gm1 since 2005 - vry tough spot for Miami in various ways....yet they got it to 9pts late in the 4Q & only lost by 11pts. Denver claim they let go of the rope in the 4th...i think Miami found something that worked.
Miami will simply have more legs under them. Martin, Strus & Robinson will not combine for 2-23 again. Just 2FT's for Heat, 20 for Nuggets in an 11pt game. Yeah i think for us who understand officiating in the NBA we know what's up & as i've been doing all PO's will always take the opposite team in the nxt game who had significantly less FTA's. 2FTA's lowest in NBA history in the Finals. You'd have to look all the way back in 83 w/ the Lakers attempting 8 in a loss. In todays game where almost everything's called w/ no hand checking etc. it's unheard of. For me refs insured a win. I've seen plenty of this sh*t before. Granted part of it was Miami having no legs to attack. But that cannot explain everything.
All the talk is about Denver. Even hearing a lot of sweep talk. Miami is apparently done. Perfect for a Heat win here & shock the public who simply thinks Denver's too strong.
I expect Zarba here. Cld be Brothers but we just saw both him & Foster in gm7 Heat/Celts so i doubt they'd be brought in this early. It's not really a vital game too so def not see Foster. Hoping to do ref stats at some point once it's released. hopefully it supports the play
Play
Gm2:
MIA +9
MIA +12.5
Gm1 vs MINN: 109-80 - 29pts ....... Gm2 vs MINN: 122-113 - 9pts
Gm1 vs PHX: 125-107 - 18pts ....... Gm2 vs PHX: 97-87 - 10pts
GM1 vs LAL: 132-126 - 6pts ........ GM2 vs LAL: 108-103 - 5pts
= Gm1: ave 17.6pts ....... Gm2: ave 8pts
Denver turns up for gm1s. The following gm that winning margin shrinks significantly. This bodes well for punters taking the points for Miami. That game 2 average is right there w/ gm2 spread -8.5. Heat's calling card is defense, that's how they got this far. You feel good taking reasonable amount of points here w/ a team that's defense oriented.
Heat coming off a grueling 7game series & having just 2 days off made the win that much easier for Nuggets. Still give Den credit but history & rest was on their side. Heat visibly fatigued couldn't put the ball in the ocean, also did not play well defensively. Low energy. Only 2 underdog teams have won gm1 since 2005 - vry tough spot for Miami in various ways....yet they got it to 9pts late in the 4Q & only lost by 11pts. Denver claim they let go of the rope in the 4th...i think Miami found something that worked.
Miami will simply have more legs under them. Martin, Strus & Robinson will not combine for 2-23 again. Just 2FT's for Heat, 20 for Nuggets in an 11pt game. Yeah i think for us who understand officiating in the NBA we know what's up & as i've been doing all PO's will always take the opposite team in the nxt game who had significantly less FTA's. 2FTA's lowest in NBA history in the Finals. You'd have to look all the way back in 83 w/ the Lakers attempting 8 in a loss. In todays game where almost everything's called w/ no hand checking etc. it's unheard of. For me refs insured a win. I've seen plenty of this sh*t before. Granted part of it was Miami having no legs to attack. But that cannot explain everything.
All the talk is about Denver. Even hearing a lot of sweep talk. Miami is apparently done. Perfect for a Heat win here & shock the public who simply thinks Denver's too strong.
I expect Zarba here. Cld be Brothers but we just saw both him & Foster in gm7 Heat/Celts so i doubt they'd be brought in this early. It's not really a vital game too so def not see Foster. Hoping to do ref stats at some point once it's released. hopefully it supports the play
All the talk is about Denver. Even hearing a lot of sweep talk. Miami is apparently done. Perfect for a Heat win here & shock the public who simply thinks Denver's too strong.
The Covers Consensus is on the Heat plus the points at a 60% clip. The public is not lopsided on Game 2, but they prefer taking the points.
Quote Originally Posted by 3BallBomber:
All the talk is about Denver. Even hearing a lot of sweep talk. Miami is apparently done. Perfect for a Heat win here & shock the public who simply thinks Denver's too strong.
The Covers Consensus is on the Heat plus the points at a 60% clip. The public is not lopsided on Game 2, but they prefer taking the points.
Quote Originally Posted by 3BallBomber: All the talk is about Denver. Even hearing a lot of sweep talk. Miami is apparently done. Perfect for a Heat win here & shock the public who simply thinks Denver's too strong. The Covers Consensus is on the Heat plus the points at a 60% clip. The public is not lopsided on Game 2, but they prefer taking the points.
I'm talking about the media and everybody outside this board. I turn on the tv & it's about Heat having no shot, Denver are too big, too deep, Jokic this & Murray that. Surely that will have many backing Denver for gm2.
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by 3BallBomber: All the talk is about Denver. Even hearing a lot of sweep talk. Miami is apparently done. Perfect for a Heat win here & shock the public who simply thinks Denver's too strong. The Covers Consensus is on the Heat plus the points at a 60% clip. The public is not lopsided on Game 2, but they prefer taking the points.
I'm talking about the media and everybody outside this board. I turn on the tv & it's about Heat having no shot, Denver are too big, too deep, Jokic this & Murray that. Surely that will have many backing Denver for gm2.
i've got den tt ov 114.5 
We know the deal about FT disparities. I predict a totally diff game in the 2nd. This shld be 1-1 heading back to Miami. Can smell Zarba or Brothers looming.
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