Posted:
#251
Raptors +11 over Cavs game 1 --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Raptors 1st half +7.5 (-115) --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit
0
2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................
Posted:
#252
If your system is correct and I don't doubt it to not be, the 11 is an absolute gift. Yet Vegas just doesn't hand them out like that. All the "rust" talk and the fact that apps look really good, it just seemed too easy to take those points. As evident in your unit plays tonite, I think you feel the same and are probably just testing the waters. Maybe I'm wrong here but I feel the Cavs will be ready and they will go for the throat. 
Game two now, that COULD be a different story.
Game two now, that COULD be a different story.
0
Posted:
#253
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
If your system is correct and I don't doubt it to not be, the 11 is an absolute gift. Yet Vegas just doesn't hand them out like that. All the "rust" talk and the fact that apps look really good, it just seemed too easy to take those points. As evident in your unit plays tonite, I think you feel the same and are probably just testing the waters. Maybe I'm wrong here but I feel the Cavs will be ready and they will go for the throat.Game two now, that COULD be a different story.
If your system is correct and I don't doubt it to not be, the 11 is an absolute gift. Yet Vegas just doesn't hand them out like that. All the "rust" talk and the fact that apps look really good, it just seemed too easy to take those points. As evident in your unit plays tonite, I think you feel the same and are probably just testing the waters. Maybe I'm wrong here but I feel the Cavs will be ready and they will go for the throat.
Game two now, that COULD be a different story. There is history favoring Cavs, home teams off rest posted by writer from covers last week and other info posted by LC strongly favor Cavs with teams off sweeps and game 7's.
Plus the injury to Jonas , how many pts is that worth ? Jonas ave about 12.5 pts shots a high % like 56.5% and that is what this team needs more then anything.
I agree Cavs off a big win will be a stronger play on Raptors.
Cavs 9-0 and off a 30 pt win, recipe for disaster backing the Cavs.
0
Posted:
#255
MY LINES.................................
Warriors -7.16 over OKC game 2
Game 2's we only back teams off ATS loss in game 1.
No play using my lines.
Historically it would be rare for a team to win both games on the road in games 1 and 2.
If Warriors win the game which likely they will then the odds favor them to cover since most winning teams also cover.
Warriors 7-1 ATS in games they've won in playoffs.
Warriors went 6 of 23 in the 4th quarter of game 1 and 1 of 10 from 3's. Curry and Thompson combined for just 3 pts and they still could of won the game.
Warriors will make adjustments on the double team Curry drew at the 3 pt line and eat the Thunder up if they try that again.
Now, all that brings us to this, it's a very special spot Warriors are in tonight.
It has to do with teams off blow-out wins then regressing and losing ATS win over a number of games and the first such spot goes down tonight on the Warriors.
Over the next 3 games teams in the Warriors spot went 19-6 ATS.
the past 9 teams in this spot, some teams wrapped up the series win before the 3 games.
Stay the coarse with this spot over the next 3 games.
And then this, remember last season ?
Warriors fell behind twice in the playoffs, VS Cavs in finals behind 2-1 then won by 21 and 13 to regain the series lead.
Fell behind 2-1 to Grizz then won by 17 and 20 to regain the series lead .
Remember the talk back then, how the Warriors would get beaten ?
Warriors have a history of responding big time off these situations.
We're on the Warriors tonight..............................
0
Posted:
#256
And OKC off 4 ATS wins, 3 of those by 10 pts or better over the spread, having to come from behind 2-1 to beat Spurs , OKC expended alot of energy and effort and intensity, to beat the Spurs and win game 1 to as not dig themselves a hole again.
At this point OKC can breath a little sigh of relief, they got exactly where they wanted and needed to be to put themselves in the perfect situation.
Very common over history for teams to lack that same energy, effort and intesinty when the reach this spots.
0
Posted:
#263
MY LINES...........................................................
Cavs -5.36 over Raptors
Game 2's we back only teams off ATS loss in game 1.
Play on Raptors.
Another great spot goes down tonight and it's on the Raptors
Teams off 25 pt blow-out wins and then picked against by my lines , this spot has only 1 loss between last season and this season.
Cavs also are very close to a bounce factor fade playing on an unsustainable level of play and are due to go down ATS and SU.
Cavs do qualify under a slightly different version of the bounce factor.
Teams under these bounce factor fades have lost many times SU, every year produces some of the biggest ML wins by fading these teams.
Large line adjustments , the book opened game 1 .... 10.5 , then opened game 2 ..... 12 or 12.5 giving us more value on Raptors because of how the public likes to over-react to the last game.
Add it all up and it fits 1 team tonight, the Raptors .
Raptors +13 (-115) over Cavs --- 3.45 units to win 3 units.
Raptors ML +900 --- 1 unit to win 9 units
Raptors 1st half +9 (-130) --- 2.6 units to win 2 units
Raptors 1st half ML +435 --- 1 unit to win 4.35 units
0
Posted:
#267
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
No thought of the extra point being a trap to entice more raps backers claw?
No thought of the extra point being a trap to entice more raps backers claw?
Not really. Look how Cavs are playing and undefeated in playoffs, of coarse the ave joe public will love to back such teams and the book knows it and needs to jack the line.
When you have the right spot gives you extra value in the line.
0
Posted:
#269
Quote Originally Posted by FinallyIPost:
Claw thanks again for last nights game. I'm laying off waiting for a live bet.
Claw thanks again for last nights game. I'm laying off waiting for a live bet.
Live bet is a great idea if you can get even more pts.
The problem is if Raptors come out and hang right from the start you'll get fewer pts.
A small bet now and then live bet if Cavs up big getting more pts to cover your small bet. Many times you can win both.
0
Posted:
#275
0-2 ATS, lost 6.05 units
0-2 ML, lost 2 units
totals - 1-1, lost 1.1 units
Cavs keep rolling. Was looking very good for `1st half untill Raps could not make a shot.
I did not see alot of the game but it looked like the over was coming in untill the backups came in and could not make a shot, foolish TO's, charging fouls as backups are know to do.
Cavs had a big regression on 3's, shooting below their regular season ave but did very well on 2 pt shooting, they still can not do both well in the same game.
Cavs now coming off a 25 pt blowout win then off ATS win, another great spot to fade a team.
Cavs getting close to a bounce factor fade, one more somewhat big win will almost certainly put them there.
If Cavs become a bounce factor fade highly likely it carries through into start of the finals.
I think a beat-down is coming for the Cavs from the West winner.
0
Hot Forum Topics
