2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

This PR is heavy in  shooting effiency.

1. Warriors 11.34

    96 BULLS 11

2. Spurs 10.68

3. OKC 8.18

4. Cavs 5.34

5. Clippers 4.04

6. Raptors 3.98

7. Hawks 3.4

8. Heat 3.27

9. Hornets 1.95

10. Pacers 1.79

11. Celtics 1.69

12. Blazers .78

13. Mavs .12

14 Rockets (-.72)

15 Pistons (-1.01) 

16. Grizzlies (-3.71)

Both Warriors and Spurs playing on historical levels with OKC on a high level and all 3 teams have the common denominators of past champs.

I don't see any team beating these 3 teams except themselves.

MY LINES......................................................

We give 4 pts to home team and have a play with a 1 pt diff to closing line.

Warriors -16.06 over Rockets

Spurs -18.39 over Grizzlies

OKC -12.16 over Mavs

Clippers -7.26 over Blazers

Cavs -10.35 over Pistons

Raptors -6.19 over Pacers

Hawks -5.71 over Celtics

Heat -5.32 over Hornets

        As of now we have 2 plays on Warriors and Spurs

My lines has not done well in 1st round past 2 years but this info has a strong tendency to bounce back strong after poor performances. If we have a bad year again may have to pass on the 1st round or re-think it.

My lines has done well in the other rounds. 

This PR is more balance between shooting effiency and rebounding.

     96 BULLS 58.4

1. Spurs 56.18

2. OKC 55.82

3. Warriors 55.57

4. Cavs 53.85

5. Raptors 52.68

6. Heat 51.87

7. Pistons 51.49

8. Hornets 51.24

9. Celtics 51.13

10. Blazers 50.98

11. Hawks 50.85

12. Pacers 50.81

13. Clippers 50.6

14. Rockets 49.27

15. Mavs 49.24

16. Grizzlies 48.55

96 Bulls well ahead of this years teams and according to my PR'S anyways  they remain the  best team ever.

96 Bulls have the 3 best seasons in history according to PR II, 96, 97, 92 Bulls.

Later we will compare Shaq and Kobe's Lakers , Ducan's Spurs, Bad boy Pistons, Bird's Celtics, Magic's Laker teams when I get the time.

FG %......

Spurs over Grizzlies by 6.8%

Shooting Effiency.....when we include 2 pt, 3 pt, FT, TO.

Spurs over Grizzlies by 6.79

PR I.....

Spurs over Grizzlies by 14.39

PR II......

Spurs over Grizzlies by 7.63

VALUE....................

Value tells us which teams their play on the court is better or worse then their point margin.

And the most undervalued team is.......The Heat by 1.62 pts.

Hornets overvalued by .77, 12th in the league.

Heat by 2.39 over Hornets

In other words, the Heat are much better then their point margin suggest and the Hornets  worse.

Value has an incredible ATS record in the 1st round, last season was Wizards over Raptors and Wiz rolled 4-0 ATS, but we backed off taking action because of injuries to Wizard players but did not matter in the end.

We have 2 largest mismatch teams..........Spurs and Heat.

HERE'S THE DEAL............................

Best Bets.........

Teams off  any SU loss

Team off 3 straight ATS losses

Strong Bet.....

Team off 2 straight ATS losses

These teams rarely finish with a losing record ATS in the series .

Here's the improvement or decline in PR I from the Allstar Break.

Biggest Improvements.................

1. Hornets 1.91

2. Rockets 1.89

3. Heat 1.82

4. Hawks 1.06

5. Pacers .26

6. Raptors .15

7. Cavs .14

Biggest Decliners..............

2. Warriors -2.03

3. Grizzlies -2.27

4. Celtics -.99

5. OKC  -.92

6. Clippers -.03

Don't have the other 3 teams but will try and update later.

Not sure how meaningful this info is, posted some teams last year for the first time and here were the results.

Biggest improvements were Spurs +2.26, Cavs +1.92, Clippers +.67

Spurs lost in 1st round to Clippers but did go 4-3 ATS

Cavs went 3-1 ATS.

Biggest decliners were Mavs -2.66, Hawks, -1.91, Grizz -1.6

Mavs went 1-4 ATS, Hawks 2-4 ATS, Grizz 3-1-1 ATS but then 2-4 ATS 2cd round.

Seems up around 1.9 gives us something to look at but then again 1 year is a very small sample and we may not want to read to much into that.

What's interesting is Hawks came into last years playoffs on a down note but are now on a up note coming in.

Cavs came in last year very strong but not this year. They are playing about the same before or after the break.

Forgot to add, most teams better in PR I are also better in PR II so no need to post PRII, except Heat improved by 1.29 and the Hornets by .59 so the Heat have improved more then Hornets in PRII  and over both PR'S combined.

But I would not count-out OKC, they are better then Warriors in PR II and just behind the Spurs by only .36.

There are 2 ways one could make a play. Bet the better value or bet the highest % bet to win the title.

The better value play would be back Spurs and OKC to win the title.

The highest % to win the title would be Warriors and Spurs with a much smaller play on OKC just in case.

I don't see another team winning the title, sorry LBJ.

The info also suggest we may have some good plays backing Heat and Hawks to win the series.

I'll make a 2 unit parlaying Heat and Hawks to win series.

and a 3 unit play on Warriors -13 in game 1.

Spurs by 7.43

Warriors by 6.31

OKC by 4.23

Cavs by 3.24

Clips by 1.96

Heat by 1.47

Hawks by 1.45

Raptors by .72

The closest matchup which might suggest an upset is Raptors over Pacers.

The Raptors are just not a very good team, they were not last year or the year before and lost in the 1st round both years.

I was hoping they would have elevated their game this season but apparently they have not.

Having lost in the first round 2 years in a row they must be very hungry to get a 1st round win, I would have to Lean the Raptors winning the seires because of this, but sadly this team is just not very good so I'd pass on the series. 

Every year I look for this thread.

BOL

MY LINES..........................

Cavs -10.35

Heat-5.32

Spurs -18.39

Clippers -7.28

We have 1 play on my lines and on largest mismatches at this time with Spurs, and a play on the Heat off the largest value mismatch which has been very good over the years.

Unfortunately I had an appointment at 9am and could not check the line and got home about 2pm.

Looks like the line has moved on Clippers to -8.5 which if it stays there or goes higher we have a 3 unit play on Blazers.

Spurs and Heat will be 5 unit plays. 10 units is a best bet play.

Ride the Trailblazers +8.5 tonight for 3 units 

Would you be updating your stats per night? How about your picks?

Sorry for the double post.

totals...............0-1, lost 1.1 units

Son of a gun we lost that over by half a point and could of won had we gotten it earlier in the day.

And we did miss one play on Pacers when the line moved and I missed it, we would have won, but all in all we did alright.

Instead of writing a stupid comment, why don't you spend sometime going through his posts and understand it.... 

GL Claw.. Great start buddy..

Raptors -6.19

OKC -12.16

Warriors -16.06

Game 2's we take action on teams off ATS losses with a 1 pt or better difference to closing line

Dallas has alot of injuries, if line goes to 13.5 I'd like Mavs but all the injuries I'd have to likely pass.

Line was 13.5 then bet down to 13 as it seems to be now.

Mavs could be a nice play if the line rises, but the injuries may take me off them.

With Curry injury I'd pass on Warriors, but Warriors off an ATS win.

We have a 1 pt difference in the Raptors -7.5 line, but Pacers off ATS win, I'd still lean Pacers tonight, try and get 8, may take a 1 or 2 unit play on them even coming off ATS win.

Pacers and Raptors are the closest matchup stats wise, with the Pacers better in some very key stats like FG % Differential, this could be the one series the dog covers twice

If the public drives this line higher I'd likely be in for a small play, I'll wait it out till 10 minutes prior to game time.