2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

0-4 ATS, lost 13.4 units

Will pass on tonight's game but may make a play on the total.

The book made a fairly large line adjustment giving out the lowest total in the series.

We'll see if the public bites and gives us more line value.

CLAW, what ya leanin?

The book did open the lowest total of the series but the line has been bet up so we lost any value there.

The book was either expecting the money to over-react to the last game with a 186 total, lowest of the series ,  kind of odd since no other game was close to that low a total, or they wanted over money.

If they lose this game and then the series, ouch that would be a hard dagger to swallow with these guys that can't seem to get over the hump.

Lenard is a monster, will Aldrigde in his first big moment deliver  with his back against the wall?

Really looking forward to this game.

Thanx for the input, Claw!

MY LINES .............................................

Heat -3.29 over Raptors

Largest mismatch team off a SU loss, we back the Heat tonight.

Warriors -7.16 over OKC game 1.

I would not count OKC out winning this series, they are better then Warriors in PRII BY .25

But would lean Warriors. 

The winner will win the title and just might  do it in dominating fashion.

Could make a play on the over, but let's wait out the line.

Heat -2 1st half --- 1.1 unuts

Heat OVER 1st half 94 --- 1.1 units 

Heat -2  1st half --- 2.2 units

Adding more units

And that is why we stay the coarse with the info.

Heat, the largest value mismatch in the first round and 2cd round are now 8-5 ATS in every game.

In the conference finals we use playoff only stats and see who is the most undervalued/overvalued team to this point in the playoffs.

The playoff only stats have been very successful in CF.

Here's the 3 teams already in...............................

OKC +.53

Warriors (-.19)

Cavs (-2.76)

Cavs easily the most overvalued team thus far by a long-shot. This team is not as good as they look being 8-0 SU.

Don't be fooled by that record.

For one, they made 3's at a very high unsustainable level but were completely out-played in 2 pt shots by around 4% throughout the playoffs.

This is why the saying, live by the 3, die by the 3 can be in many cases so true.

Contrary to what many may be saying about the game being revolutionize by the Warriors and 3 pt shooting, it really is not in this regard, first there is only one Curry who's playing on a unreal high level, without such a player a team can not duplicate what the Warriors do.

Then you have what might be the 2cd best 3 pt shooter in Klay, yea ok, give me those 2 players and I can change how the game is played, but the Cavs ? No friggin way.

History is loud and clear on this matter, 3 pt shooting while getting out-played in 2 pt shooting does not bring titles, and that history is going to roar it's head before it's all done.

PR I in playoffs only....................................

Warriors 11.41

OKC 8.53

Cavs 7.74

Cavs even though they are 8-0 are not close to the Warriors without Curry.

FG% differential..................................

Warriors 7.4%

OKC 1.3%

Cavs .1%

Cavs out-shoot opps by a measly one tenth of 1 %. Because they get badly out-played in 2 pt shooting, this is not the formula for champions.

Contrary to what many pundits might tell you the Warriors do not rely on the 3 as their bread and butter, it's more their icing on the cake which gives them a big advantage over the remainder of the league because no team can match this icing.

The Warriors have won many games getting out-shot in 3's because the can win the 2 pt shooting battle which at the end of the day carries far more attempted shots.

The reason Warriors are out-shooting opps by 7.4% is because they dominate opps in  2 pt shooting. They do not just win the 3 pt shooting battle they win all the shooting battles because they are the best shooters.

The Cavs had nothing more then a moment of 3 pt shooting, an anomally that is not sustainable but when a team has such a moment they can look unbeatable but you''ll be surprised how they look when those 3's stop going in which is eventually going to happen and they will then need to out-play opps in 2 pt shots.

Depending on how the Heat or Raptors rate in value it looks like we very well could be fading the Cavs in the CF.

Totals 2-0, won 4 units

Crazy the line began dropping right before tipoff , late money must have come in on Raptors.

We are likely on Heat again in game 7.  

Raptors -4.71 over Heat game 7

Historically how the series has play-out thus far favors the Raptors to win game 7 SU.

Home teams win game 7 at a very high rate, favors the Raptors to win SU.

Teams that win SU cover at a high rate, in this series the winning team is 5-1 ATS.

However, this covers all series regardless of talent and skill levels.

 With these 2 teams being very evenly matched it is the type of series where the team trailing has come back and won the series, it does not mean they will, just means that... "IF"... it were to happen it'd be in a series of very evenly matched teams.

We could either pass on this game or take small action on the Heat.

Would lean the Heat at this time.

My Line............................

Warriors -7.16 over OKC game 1

Here's the Deal..........

With a 1 pt diff to closing line and................

off a SU loss --- 16-6 ATS

off ATS loss --- 16-5 ATS

trailing in the series --- 13-7 ATS

trailing by 2 games in series --- 8-2 ATS

all game with a 1 pt diff --- 34-18 ATS

teams off a SU and ATS win after trailing by 2 games or more and still trailing by 1 game or more --- 5-0 ATS

Backing this info has produced just 1 losing ATS conference finals at 3-5  ATS in the last 9 years.

PR I............

Warriors 11.34

OKC 8.18

Cavs 5.34

Raptors 3.98

Heat 3.27

PR II

OKC 55.82

Warriors 55.57

Cavs 53.85

Raptors 52.68

Heat 51.87

FG % differential.............

Warriors 5.2%

OKC 3.8%

Heat 2.8%

Cavs 1.2%

Raptors .7%

Shooting Efficiency ..........when we factor 2 pt, 3 pt, FT, TO

Warriors 5.82 %

OKC       2.27 %

Cavs      2.05%

Raptors   1.53 %

Heat        1.07 %

Warriors the best since 1974 in shooting efficiency. 1974 being   the first year league tracked all stats needed, they broke the record they set last year.

Warriors are a shooting efficiency dream team playing at the highest levels ever seen in history.

OKC has huge size inside and are a monster rebounding team getting 53.55% , no. 1 in off rebs at 31.1 % and getting 76 % def rebs. Out-rebounding opps by a whopping 8.42 per game.

Compare that to Cavs 3.5 per game or Warriors 2.3.

Cavs not in the same league as OKC when it comes to rebs and making up for lack of shooting efficiency to try and match-up with Warriors.

All these extra shot attempts because of off rebs make up for OKC's overall lack of shooting efficeincy.

 and why OKC rates better then Warriors in PR II.

This series could very well be a classic all-time down to the wire type series.

I'd LEAN  the incredible shooting efficeincy dream team to win the series but would not be the least bit surprised if OKC pulls of the series win.  

I would expect OKC to likely get a split in the first 2 games in GS.

Will pass on game 1 at this time, let's wait-out the line.

Heat 1st half +3 -125 ---  1.25 units to win 1

Will pass on tonight's game 1 unless we see a nice line movement. .

Warriors could not make a shot in the 4th and played below their standard level of play while OKC shot 47% on 3's, took 32 FT's to GS 17, and barely won the game. 

Wait till the Warriors shoot 55 to 57 % on 3's instead of 36% and OKC shoots 34%, a blow-out waiting to happen.

OKC doubled Curry at the 3 pt line with a 7 footer, maybe first time he's seen that, but they'll make adjustments to this and roll OKC when they try this again.

Cavs -5.36 over Raptors 

With Jonas out, is he worth 5 points ? I doubt it. Biyombo in the regular season was a better rebounder per minute of play, better shot-blocker and had fewer TO's.

But he was up against 2cd team players possibly.

The both shot well over 50% from the field . 

Jonas more shot attempts and pts and that is what this team desperatly needs with both Lowry and De being lower % shooters, they need a high % shooter who can score and that'd be Jonas.

Don't think he is worth 5 pts...................lean Raptors +11

VALUE MISMATCH....................................

OKC +.53

Warriors (-.19)

Cavs (-2.76)

Raptors (-3.4)

Wow, Raptors the most overvalued team, no-where-near as good as thery've looked in the playoffs.

OKC by .72

Cavs by .64

OKC the largest value mismatch based on playoffs, but at only .72, not enough of a difference to be a big deal, we like to see over 2.