2016 NBA PLAYOFFS ................................................

Warriors -10 over Cavs game 5

Close-out game for Warriors...................

All close-out games since 1992, my lines with any difference to closing line....17-9 ATS.

With a 2 pt diff to closing line ... 10-4 ATS

With a 2 pt diff to closing line and coming off a SU win.....7-2 ATS

My Lines in a close-out game with series 3-1.........................

8-4 ATS with any diff to closing line

With a 2 pt diff ................7-1 ATS

With a 2pt diff and coming off a SU win..........5-0 ATS

Warriors -4 1st half --- 1.1 units to win 1 unit

The team that won SU has covered every game in this series but it may not continue that way.

We also have a best bet play on Warriors to win the series which now becomes a ML play in this game so no need to play any bigger on Warriors and risk a win but not a cover. 

But my lines has to strong a history in close-out games to ignore this game 5.

Let's not go crazy here because it could be the final game this playoffs, there will be great spots down the road for us.

We have Arena football playoffs coming up and the WNBA playoffs as well as week 1 in the NFL using regression methods which have not produced a losing record yet over many years.

arena football and wnba? hmm...i may have to take a peek 

Agree with the W's

         

Good point Duderonomy, I noticed the same differentiation.  mgm is a piece of work, ins't he?

Curious to know if you think the Draymond suspension will influence your thinking on the spread?

With or without Draymond, I think the Dubs roll.  

Here's a look at many great teams in history, at least through the eyes of the "key stat battles" which make-up my Power Ratings.

PR I.............

1. 2016 Warriors - 11.34

2. 2008 Celtics - 11.05

3. 96 Bulls - 11

4. 2015 Warriors - 10.76

5. 87 Lakers - 9.2, Magic's best team

6. 2013 Heat, - 9.11 LBJ's best team

7. 99 Spurs -  8.83, Duncan's best team

8. 86 Celtics - 8.75, Bird's best team

9. 2000 Lakers - 7.97, Shaq and Kobe's best team

10. 83 76ers - 7.97, Dr J and Moses Malone's best team

11. 89 Pistons - 6.87, Isiah Thomas  best team

12. 94 Rockets - 5.43. Akeem's best team

PR II.............................................

1. 96 Bulls 58.4

2. 2008 Celtics 55.82 

3. 2016 Warriors 55.57

4.  2000 Lakers 55.32

5. 86 Celtics 55.1

6. 2015 Warriors 54.96

7. 83 76ers 54.85

8. 87 Lakers 54.8

9. 89 Pistons 54.5

10. 99 Spurs 54,39

11. 2012 Heat 54.08, LBJ the only one who had a different team best in each PR.

12. 94 Rockets 51.8

Both PR's Combined....................................

1. 96 Bulls 69.4

2. 2016 Warriors 66.91

3. 2008 Celtics 66.87

4. 2015 Warriors 65.72

5. 87 Lakers 64

6. 86 Celtics 63.85

7. 2000 Lakers 63.29

8. 99 Spurs 63.22

9. 83 76ers 62.54

10. 2013 Heat 62.35

11. 89 Pistons 58.77

12 94 Rockets 57.23

96 Bulls stand well ahead of the 2cd best team and would be the best team since at least the middle 70's.

The 2 teams may challenge them, 72 Lakers and 71 Bucks but the league did not track TO and off rebs back then so hard to get a good line on those teams.

And of coarse possibly Russell's Celtics of the 60's.

But we need to consider the different era's as well.

One thing might hurt the Warriors great year assuming they go on to beat the Cavs and win the title is, for the first time in history we had 2 teams win 65 games and 2 teams put up historical stats which may indicate how much easier it is today to do such things.

When the Bulls won 72 games they were heads and shoulders better then the 2cd best team , if it was so easy to win all those games why didn't other teams do it ?

And then look at how many blow-outs happened in the playoffs, indicating again how easy it is to blow teams out, and other teams were winning big in playoffs not just historical Warriors and Spurs, there seems to be something going on this season which allowed such things which takes away a bit of the Warriors historically great play in my book anyway.

I would still put Warriors as one of the truly great teams in history if they win title but would downgrade them just a bit.

The big surprise is the 2008 Celtics and the 83 76ers who did not rank very high at least in the regular season, these ratings do not include playoffs where the 83 76ers lost just 1 game.

When we consider this the 87 Lakers and 86 Celtics , ranking 5th and 6th in combined PR when teams took very few 3's might be as good or better then today's teams "if" they had the advantage of practicing and taking more 3's, their PR's would almost certainly be better.

1996 Bulls

2008 Celtics

2016 Warriors

This is just based on the eye test... those teams put together a chemistry and a level of dominance (especially in the clutch, under pressure) that is a notch above everyone else... 

Some other teams may have had more impressive Finals runs, or maybe better records, but some of that comes across as "putting it together at the right time" or "beating up on lesser competition"... but not those 3.

My 2 cents!

In Miami when LBJ surrounded himself with other great offensive players like Wade and Bosch, he had monster regular seasons in FG % and shooting efficiency, he never came close to duplicating those in finals.

Other great players did, like MJ.

It's already been proven many, many times that when you play next to other great off players it is easier to shoot higher % because the defense needs to consider more players to defend.

LBJ only scored a couple pts more per game than Wade, MJ scored like 14 pts or so more then his 2cd option, that's a greater diff then LBJ and his 3rd option Bosch .

LBJ had 2 off options better than MJ's 2cd option, there was far more pressure from the defense on MJ then on LBJ BECAUSE MJ was by far the main off threat while LBJ was not close to that.

..........yep they were much better then the other teams back then and they had some great duels in the finals.

Green is very important to this team because he is a fierce rebounded and defender inside which allows the small-ball to thrive.

In the long run I doubt Warriors small-ball could survive without him.

But in one game all the Warriors need to do is make shots, the one thing they are best at doing and this especially true at home.

If they make shots the way they are capable of doing they should win the game, rebounds and defense will not be as important.

Only 14 games did the line come into play with the winning team failing to cover , 14.9%.

There have been 3 pushes on closing line.

This years finals is 4-0 winnning team covering.

Now, if we look at the best teams in the most important part of the game, shooting efficiciency, the teams out-shot their opps by the largest amounts...............................9 teams out-shot opps by 3.7% or more .

Those 9 teams won 27 finals games and covered 25 of the 27 wins.

Warriors the best team since 1974 the first year league tracked the stats needed, out-shooting opps by 5.82%.

We'll be coming large on Warriors game 6.

If he could do that more often then you'd have a case of comparing him to MJ, but he just has not done it very often.

He did not really shot great, only 53% but he was 50% on 3's with 16 rebs and 7 assists.

That game had more to do with helping his team win then many of the triple doubles he's gotten in the finals, even though he did not get a triple double.

LBJ still remains one of the great players who has not shot 55% or better in back to back games in the finals while helping his team win those games or the series.

He did it one time when Spurs crushed the Heat 4-1 and he did it when the games were decided already.

Bird shot over 70% back to back games.

Magic shot over 60% 3 straight games

MJ in just his 1st and 2cd NBA finals games shot 55% and 83%

LBJ has never come close to any of this and it took him many, many tries and his team getting blown-out to even get back to back games of 55% or better.

Will he do it 2 more games ?