Yeah, sorry about that play. My plays are derived strictly from my projected side and total lines as compared to the opening lines. I trust my numbers 100% and based on my record thus far they aren't to bad. I am not sure there was anyone who would have projected 233 points to be scored in the Charlotte/Milwaukee game tonight. In this business sometimes that happens. BOL to you.
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Quote Originally Posted by Blue_Chips:
No more unders!!!!
Yeah, sorry about that play. My plays are derived strictly from my projected side and total lines as compared to the opening lines. I trust my numbers 100% and based on my record thus far they aren't to bad. I am not sure there was anyone who would have projected 233 points to be scored in the Charlotte/Milwaukee game tonight. In this business sometimes that happens. BOL to you.
To prevent from being banned if you keep posting more winners, can you please open twitter account under the same name or atleast let us know your email address?
I am not sure I understand. I will get banned for posting winners?
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Quote Originally Posted by Nbalove:
To prevent from being banned if you keep posting more winners, can you please open twitter account under the same name or atleast let us know your email address?
I am not sure I understand. I will get banned for posting winners?
Washington at Toronto -4, 188 Philadelphia at Charlotte PK, 194 NY Knicks at Atlanta -1, 195 Brooklyn -2, 194 at Cleveland Detroit at Boston -6, 192 Minnesota at Milwaukee -3, 199 Orlando at San Antonio -9, 197 Denver at Utah -4, 202 Houston at Sacramento PK, 208 Memphis at Portland -1, 193 Phoenix at LA Clippers -10, 198 New Orleans at Golden State -4, 198
OFFICIAL PLAYS (Final Card)
Washington at Toronto UNDER 195.5 NY Knicks at Atlanta UNDER 200 Minnesota at Milwaukee UNDER 207.5 Orlando +14.5 at San Antonio Denver at Utah UNDER 207.5
Washington at Toronto -4, 188 Philadelphia at Charlotte PK, 194 NY Knicks at Atlanta -1, 195 Brooklyn -2, 194 at Cleveland Detroit at Boston -6, 192 Minnesota at Milwaukee -3, 199 Orlando at San Antonio -9, 197 Denver at Utah -4, 202 Houston at Sacramento PK, 208 Memphis at Portland -1, 193 Phoenix at LA Clippers -10, 198 New Orleans at Golden State -4, 198
OFFICIAL PLAYS (Final Card)
Washington at Toronto UNDER 195.5 NY Knicks at Atlanta UNDER 200 Minnesota at Milwaukee UNDER 207.5 Orlando +14.5 at San Antonio Denver at Utah UNDER 207.5
I am posting a few College Basketball Tourney plays in the College Basketball Forum if anyone is interested. I got a late start but I have posted a few plays.
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I am posting a few College Basketball Tourney plays in the College Basketball Forum if anyone is interested. I got a late start but I have posted a few plays.
Stats that I saw that make me nervous about this play is the fact is Dallas is 4-1 in their last 5 games to the over after a days rest and Denver is 4-0-1 to the over after no rest. In 15 games with no rest Denver games are avg. 214 pts and are 12 - 2 - 1 to the over.
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Stats that I saw that make me nervous about this play is the fact is Dallas is 4-1 in their last 5 games to the over after a days rest and Denver is 4-0-1 to the over after no rest. In 15 games with no rest Denver games are avg. 214 pts and are 12 - 2 - 1 to the over.
Stats that I saw that make me nervous about this play is the fact is Dallas is 4-1 in their last 5 games to the over after a days rest and Denver is 4-0-1 to the over after no rest. In 15 games with no rest Denver games are avg. 214 pts and are 12 - 2 - 1 to the over.
As I mentioned before in a previous post my plays are derived from comparing the opening lines to my projected side and total lines. If the opening line has a differential of 5> points from my projected line then I make a play. ie, tonights total play, Dallas at Denver, opened at 209.5 and my projected line is 204 which is a 5.5 point differential. Even though I bet and posted it at a line of 208, I use the opening lines when comparing them to my projected lines.
As far as the trends you posted....To be brutally honest I don't look at trends and could really care less to research trends. All trends will regress back to the "Mean" at some point so if they start off hot the odds are that they will eventually regress back to 50/50. If handicapping was that simple we would all be rich. Also the trends you mentioned is a very small sample size and , to me, means absolutely nothing.
Believe it or not their is no trend the lines makers are not aware of and I am sure that's quite obvious with the line opening at such a high number, 209.5
Sometimes I am wrong and sometimes I am right and I may be way off tonight with my under play but I am pretty consistent with providing winning picks at a pretty high rate/percentage.
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Quote Originally Posted by cowboys2288:
Stats that I saw that make me nervous about this play is the fact is Dallas is 4-1 in their last 5 games to the over after a days rest and Denver is 4-0-1 to the over after no rest. In 15 games with no rest Denver games are avg. 214 pts and are 12 - 2 - 1 to the over.
As I mentioned before in a previous post my plays are derived from comparing the opening lines to my projected side and total lines. If the opening line has a differential of 5> points from my projected line then I make a play. ie, tonights total play, Dallas at Denver, opened at 209.5 and my projected line is 204 which is a 5.5 point differential. Even though I bet and posted it at a line of 208, I use the opening lines when comparing them to my projected lines.
As far as the trends you posted....To be brutally honest I don't look at trends and could really care less to research trends. All trends will regress back to the "Mean" at some point so if they start off hot the odds are that they will eventually regress back to 50/50. If handicapping was that simple we would all be rich. Also the trends you mentioned is a very small sample size and , to me, means absolutely nothing.
Believe it or not their is no trend the lines makers are not aware of and I am sure that's quite obvious with the line opening at such a high number, 209.5
Sometimes I am wrong and sometimes I am right and I may be way off tonight with my under play but I am pretty consistent with providing winning picks at a pretty high rate/percentage.
I am currently calculating my projected lines for Fridays action and I will post as soon as I am finished. FYI...my opening lines are from BetOnline and I use them because they are the first online book to release lines on a daily basis.
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I am currently calculating my projected lines for Fridays action and I will post as soon as I am finished. FYI...my opening lines are from BetOnline and I use them because they are the first online book to release lines on a daily basis.
Chicago at Brooklyn -2, 190 Dallas at Denver -8, 204 San Antonio at Oklahoma City -5, 203
OFFICIAL PLAYS (Final Card)
Dallas at Denver UNDER 208
04/05/2013
MY PROJECTED SIDE AND TOTAL LINES
Milwaukee at New York -5, 197 Philadelphia at Atlanta -4, 192 Cleveland at Boston -6, 196 Orlando at Chicago -4, 188 Miami -5, 197 at Charlotte Toronto at Minnesota -4, 196 Oklahoma City at Indiana -2, 194 New Orleans at Utah -6, 196 Golden State -1, 197 at Phoenix Dallas at Sacramento -2, 206 Memphis at LA Lakers -2, 194
OFFICIAL PLAYS (Final Card posted after all opening lines are released)
Milwaukee at New York UNDER 205 Cleveland at Boston UNDER 201.5 Golden State at Phoenix +8 Dallas at Sacramento UNDER 214.5
Chicago at Brooklyn -2, 190 Dallas at Denver -8, 204 San Antonio at Oklahoma City -5, 203
OFFICIAL PLAYS (Final Card)
Dallas at Denver UNDER 208
04/05/2013
MY PROJECTED SIDE AND TOTAL LINES
Milwaukee at New York -5, 197 Philadelphia at Atlanta -4, 192 Cleveland at Boston -6, 196 Orlando at Chicago -4, 188 Miami -5, 197 at Charlotte Toronto at Minnesota -4, 196 Oklahoma City at Indiana -2, 194 New Orleans at Utah -6, 196 Golden State -1, 197 at Phoenix Dallas at Sacramento -2, 206 Memphis at LA Lakers -2, 194
OFFICIAL PLAYS (Final Card posted after all opening lines are released)
Milwaukee at New York UNDER 205 Cleveland at Boston UNDER 201.5 Golden State at Phoenix +8 Dallas at Sacramento UNDER 214.5
TOTALS: 15-7 (under: 14-6; over: 1-1). Hopefully I can win you a wager tonight. If not don't get discouraged with 1 loss. I recommend playing all plays everyday or none at all. Good luck bud!
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Quote Originally Posted by Blue_Chips:
I'm gonna try your under tonight.
TOTALS: 15-7 (under: 14-6; over: 1-1). Hopefully I can win you a wager tonight. If not don't get discouraged with 1 loss. I recommend playing all plays everyday or none at all. Good luck bud!
i agree with your play tonight. good luck may i ask how you make your projections without considering any trends?
As I stated in a previous post, most, if not all trends almost always regress to "50-50" at some point. Dont get me wrong, their are a few good trends out there but IMO trends are useless unless you have a sample size of about 1,000 plays or so. Two of the trends mentioned in post #68 have a 5 game sample size, which to me means absolutely nothing.
My style of handicapping and my plays are a result of previous statistical data ONLY. I have a database which contains statistical data that I have incorporated that, after I enter daily updates, provides me with a projected side and total line for each game. After I have my projected numbers for each game I simply allow 5 points for error. Which means I compare the opening lines to my projected lines and if their is a 5 point differential with a side or total I have a play. Occasionally a side or total will have a differential of 10> which IMO makes the play slightly stronger, even though I flat bet each play no matter what the differential is. I hope that answers your question.
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Quote Originally Posted by shing02:
i agree with your play tonight. good luck may i ask how you make your projections without considering any trends?
As I stated in a previous post, most, if not all trends almost always regress to "50-50" at some point. Dont get me wrong, their are a few good trends out there but IMO trends are useless unless you have a sample size of about 1,000 plays or so. Two of the trends mentioned in post #68 have a 5 game sample size, which to me means absolutely nothing.
My style of handicapping and my plays are a result of previous statistical data ONLY. I have a database which contains statistical data that I have incorporated that, after I enter daily updates, provides me with a projected side and total line for each game. After I have my projected numbers for each game I simply allow 5 points for error. Which means I compare the opening lines to my projected lines and if their is a 5 point differential with a side or total I have a play. Occasionally a side or total will have a differential of 10> which IMO makes the play slightly stronger, even though I flat bet each play no matter what the differential is. I hope that answers your question.
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