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2 Plays / 1 TNT Thursday Night Extravaganza

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by SharpBettor1:

Plus, wouldn't you agree with me that you win more when you fade people on Covers and lose more when you tail people on Covers?  I'm sure most of you agree with me.  lol

Your NOT a sharpbettor if you can't make your own plays

IF YOU TAIL YOU FAIL

IF YOU FADE YOU GOT IT MADE

 
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Posted: #27
Something tells me to stay away from this game... I'll think on it.
 
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Posted: #28
Let's hit the under
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2010-2011 NBA Record:
74 - 57 @ 56% for +11.3 Units

Thur, 02/10


#1: Los Angeles Lakers +3
#2: UNDER 187.5 LAL/BOS

The Lakers and Celtics played each other about a week and a half ago in a high-scoring game which combined for a total of 205 points. The O/U in that one was set at 185.5. Now we have a rematch and the line has only been adjusted by 2 points with 88% of all the early bets on the OVER. Clearly the books expect a lower scoring game here, and I agree.

The Lakers are 11-14 O/U on the road this year. They lost that first game at home and I expect them to come out with increased intensity in tonight's game. On the season, Lakers are 4-1 SU revenging a home loss vs an opponent. The O/U is 2-3 in those games. Not a great sample size here, but what is interesting is that O/U is 6-14 in Lakers' non-conference games. O/U is also 8-9 in Celtics' non-conference games.

Looking at that first game, Boston shot 60% from the floor and 53% from the 3PT line. Obviously for Lakers to win this game, they cannot let this happen. Besides Celtics' 'normal regression to the mean', there are a few additional factors that are in Lakers' favor. First of all, Paul Pierce was phenomenal in that first game, going 11 for 18 from the floor for team high 32 points. He is shooting 40% from the field and averaging 17 ppg in his last 3. In addition, he is battling a flu and was forced to miss yesterday's practice. I don't expect him to be as sharp as he was in that first meeting. Additionally, Ray Allen is two 3-pointers away from breaking Reggie Miller's NBA record. I can't help but think that he might force a few just to get it done in front of his home-fans against the defending champs. Lakers will be aware of this and I expect them to tighten up their D when guarding Allen. Also, keep in mind that Shaq, his backup Erden, and Marquis Daniels are out for this game. They're going to join Jermaine O'Neal and Delonte West on the bench. Depth is really becoming an issue for this older Celtics squad. Besides depth, Lakers will have a size advantage in tonight's game. Without Shaq, Boston will rely on Perkins and G Davis, two undersized 'big' men. With revenge in mind, I expect both Gasol and Bynum to be very aggressive in this one and dominate the boards. Odom will help on Garnett, when he comes off the bench, so this 3-man rotation for the Lakers should have a big advantage in the paint here.

This has all the makings of a tough, physical affair. Lakers will rely on their size, while the Celtics will try to counter with outside shooting and "kick-outs" from Rondo. I don't expect Celtics to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game, while the Lakers should be around 44% again. The O/U is 0-5 in Lakers' last 5 games as underdogs, 4-10 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage, and 16-35 in the last 51 games playing with 2 days rest. Celtics have been more of an 'over' team this season, but the O/U is 1-5 in their last 6 when facing a team with a winning record. Clearly, this team tightens up defensively when playing top competition. 4 of the last 5 games @ Boston between these squads have gone UNDER and O/U is 1-5 in the last 6 overall between these rivals. I expect a tough game with a lot of intensity from both teams. Celtics are a bit depleted right now and I see LA pulling out a close victory, avenging the earlier defeat.

Good luck!




LAL+pts!!!
 
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Posted: #30
Bodio, are you not worried about that Lakers are 1-10 ATS in last 11 Thursday games and 2-6-1 ATS at Boston Garden?
 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by SharpBettor1:

yea, but whenever I tail those "sharp cats", it ends up being a loser like 50% of the time.

Well, then sounds like tailing or fading will lead you to a 50% result. 

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by risktaker:

nice write up gl

 

thanks brutha

 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by D-Town:

Good luck Bodio. 

 

thanks D$$

 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by Lar1212:

Something tells me to stay away from this game... I'll think on it.

Always good to listen to "something" 

 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by bembzizzle:

Let's hit the under

 

 
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Posted: #36
bodio, can I just say how refreshing it is to hear someone else talking about regressions to the mean? It makes me smile as I think in similar fashions frequently.
 
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Posted: #37

As always great write-up, Bodio. Boston is beat up as you noted. I believe they recently brought up a couple frontcourt DL players that will play.

With you on the Lakers, not sure yet on the under 

 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Bodio, are you not worried about that Lakers are 1-10 ATS in last 11 Thursday games and 2-6-1 ATS at Boston Garden?

Lakers are actually 4-1 SU in the last 5 years playing @ the Boston Garden during the regular season. 

The Thursday thing is a coincidence not a trend.  It's completely useless...

 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

bodio, can I just say how refreshing it is to hear someone else talking about regressions to the mean? It makes me smile as I think in similar fashions frequently.

hehe...if you like it now, wait till you read my MLB analysis. 

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by chasman:

As always great write-up, Bodio. Boston is beat up as you noted. I believe they recently brought up a couple frontcourt DL players that will play.

With you on the Lakers, not sure yet on the under 

Yes, I just think this is a great spot for the Lakers.  You know they're motivated for this one.  I see them playing a really good game here. 

The line has dropped pretty much everywhere.  5Dimes has it at -2 Celts now.  Wow...good sign for the LakeShow backers.

 

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Lakers are actually 4-1 SU in the last 5 years playing @ the Boston Garden during the regular season. 

The Thursday thing is a coincidence not a trend.  It's completely useless...

ok. Everyone has his own angles of capping a game. Good luck!

 
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Posted: #42
Lakers have their own problems.  Artest he is like a cancer on the
team.  Fisher is old and does not hit that impossible shot anymore.
It is just Kolbe, and that does not get it in the NBA.
 
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Posted: #43

Lakers are 4-1 SU revenging a home loss

That Lakers 4-1 SU on revenging from home loss looks solid. I am taking LAL +3 as well. Good luck Bodio!

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

This should have been my analysis.  Would have saved myself a couple of hours  :)

walrus would've loved it.  this is why i haven't started posting plays on here.  not quite confident enough in myself yet to take the bashing when you get a play wrong.  keep up the good work Bodio.  always worth the read

 
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Posted: #45

With you on Under. BOL

 
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Posted: #46
with you on the UNDER!  BOL on both
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

ok. Everyone has his own angles of capping a game. Good luck!

Yes absolutely.  Out of curiousity, if you think Lakers suck on thursdays, why do you think so?  What makes that 1-11 ATS thursday trend relevant?  would be curious to hear your thoughts...

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by golfkat:

Lakers have their own problems.  Artest he is like a cancer on the
team.  Fisher is old and does not hit that impossible shot anymore.
It is just Kolbe, and that does not get it in the NBA.

I think you're forgetting Gasol, Bynum, and Odom...  These guys will come to play tonight.

 
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Posted: #49
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

hehe...if you like it now, wait till you read my MLB analysis. 



Bodio, I can't wait for MLB to kickoff. By far my favorite sport and most profitable. Looking forward to your analysis.

I am on the Lake Show tonight with you. Let's go my man!


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