Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
74 - 57 @ 56% for +11.3 Units
Thur, 02/10
#1: Los Angeles Lakers +3
#2: UNDER 187.5 LAL/BOS
The Lakers and Celtics played each other about a week and a half ago in a high-scoring game which combined for a total of 205 points. The O/U in that one was set at 185.5. Now we have a rematch and the line has only been adjusted by 2 points with 88% of all the early bets on the OVER. Clearly the books expect a lower scoring game here, and I agree.
The Lakers are 11-14 O/U on the road this year. They lost that first game at home and I expect them to come out with increased intensity in tonight's game. On the season, Lakers are 4-1 SU revenging a home loss vs an opponent. The O/U is 2-3 in those games. Not a great sample size here, but what is interesting is that O/U is 6-14 in Lakers' non-conference games. O/U is also 8-9 in Celtics' non-conference games.
Looking at that first game, Boston shot 60% from the floor and 53% from the 3PT line. Obviously for Lakers to win this game, they cannot let this happen. Besides Celtics' 'normal regression to the mean', there are a few additional factors that are in Lakers' favor. First of all, Paul Pierce was phenomenal in that first game, going 11 for 18 from the floor for team high 32 points. He is shooting 40% from the field and averaging 17 ppg in his last 3. In addition, he is battling a flu and was forced to miss yesterday's practice. I don't expect him to be as sharp as he was in that first meeting. Additionally, Ray Allen is two 3-pointers away from breaking Reggie Miller's NBA record. I can't help but think that he might force a few just to get it done in front of his home-fans against the defending champs. Lakers will be aware of this and I expect them to tighten up their D when guarding Allen. Also, keep in mind that Shaq, his backup Erden, and Marquis Daniels are out for this game. They're going to join Jermaine O'Neal and Delonte West on the bench. Depth is really becoming an issue for this older Celtics squad. Besides depth, Lakers will have a size advantage in tonight's game. Without Shaq, Boston will rely on Perkins and G Davis, two undersized 'big' men. With revenge in mind, I expect both Gasol and Bynum to be very aggressive in this one and dominate the boards. Odom will help on Garnett, when he comes off the bench, so this 3-man rotation for the Lakers should have a big advantage in the paint here.
This has all the makings of a tough, physical affair. Lakers will rely on their size, while the Celtics will try to counter with outside shooting and "kick-outs" from Rondo. I don't expect Celtics to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game, while the Lakers should be around 44% again. The O/U is 0-5 in Lakers' last 5 games as underdogs, 4-10 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage, and 16-35 in the last 51 games playing with 2 days rest. Celtics have been more of an 'over' team this season, but the O/U is 1-5 in their last 6 when facing a team with a winning record. Clearly, this team tightens up defensively when playing top competition. 4 of the last 5 games @ Boston between these squads have gone UNDER and O/U is 1-5 in the last 6 overall between these rivals. I expect a tough game with a lot of intensity from both teams. Celtics are a bit depleted right now and I see LA pulling out a close victory, avenging the earlier defeat.
Good luck!
74 - 57 @ 56% for +11.3 Units
Thur, 02/10
#1: Los Angeles Lakers +3
#2: UNDER 187.5 LAL/BOS
The Lakers and Celtics played each other about a week and a half ago in a high-scoring game which combined for a total of 205 points. The O/U in that one was set at 185.5. Now we have a rematch and the line has only been adjusted by 2 points with 88% of all the early bets on the OVER. Clearly the books expect a lower scoring game here, and I agree.
The Lakers are 11-14 O/U on the road this year. They lost that first game at home and I expect them to come out with increased intensity in tonight's game. On the season, Lakers are 4-1 SU revenging a home loss vs an opponent. The O/U is 2-3 in those games. Not a great sample size here, but what is interesting is that O/U is 6-14 in Lakers' non-conference games. O/U is also 8-9 in Celtics' non-conference games.
Looking at that first game, Boston shot 60% from the floor and 53% from the 3PT line. Obviously for Lakers to win this game, they cannot let this happen. Besides Celtics' 'normal regression to the mean', there are a few additional factors that are in Lakers' favor. First of all, Paul Pierce was phenomenal in that first game, going 11 for 18 from the floor for team high 32 points. He is shooting 40% from the field and averaging 17 ppg in his last 3. In addition, he is battling a flu and was forced to miss yesterday's practice. I don't expect him to be as sharp as he was in that first meeting. Additionally, Ray Allen is two 3-pointers away from breaking Reggie Miller's NBA record. I can't help but think that he might force a few just to get it done in front of his home-fans against the defending champs. Lakers will be aware of this and I expect them to tighten up their D when guarding Allen. Also, keep in mind that Shaq, his backup Erden, and Marquis Daniels are out for this game. They're going to join Jermaine O'Neal and Delonte West on the bench. Depth is really becoming an issue for this older Celtics squad. Besides depth, Lakers will have a size advantage in tonight's game. Without Shaq, Boston will rely on Perkins and G Davis, two undersized 'big' men. With revenge in mind, I expect both Gasol and Bynum to be very aggressive in this one and dominate the boards. Odom will help on Garnett, when he comes off the bench, so this 3-man rotation for the Lakers should have a big advantage in the paint here.
This has all the makings of a tough, physical affair. Lakers will rely on their size, while the Celtics will try to counter with outside shooting and "kick-outs" from Rondo. I don't expect Celtics to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game, while the Lakers should be around 44% again. The O/U is 0-5 in Lakers' last 5 games as underdogs, 4-10 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage, and 16-35 in the last 51 games playing with 2 days rest. Celtics have been more of an 'over' team this season, but the O/U is 1-5 in their last 6 when facing a team with a winning record. Clearly, this team tightens up defensively when playing top competition. 4 of the last 5 games @ Boston between these squads have gone UNDER and O/U is 1-5 in the last 6 overall between these rivals. I expect a tough game with a lot of intensity from both teams. Celtics are a bit depleted right now and I see LA pulling out a close victory, avenging the earlier defeat.
Good luck!
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