Padres/Phillies Over 8 -115
Vasquez has been fairly decent this year, but this line up just saw him a week ago, and throughout his career, Philly bats have tagged him. Bohm, Harper, Turner and Schwarber have all homered off Vasquez. Now the Padres line up has historically been bad vs Nola, but this isn't the same Aaron Nola as years past. He did hold them to 2 ER in 6 IP last week, but that was in a very pitcher friendly park.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +142
The Tigers stink. Flaherty hasn't been as bad as his numbers suggest, at least of late. He hasn't walked a batter in his last 3 starts, which was a huge problem for him early, but his hard hit rate is nearly 50% and that just is bad news. He gets a lot of Ks, but the bats in the Rays line up don't go out of the zone as much as others, so if Jack has to be in the zone, it could be a long evening. Tigers are also in the bottom third of the league in OPS vs lefties, and Matz has good career numbers vs this line up.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +176
Too good of a price to pass up, for a team that has 40 wins on the season, and only 6 of them didn't cover the 1.5 RL. I like my chances, even though Gausman has been good, these bats can't be kept down. And the Jays are struggling offensively still, so 4 or 5 runs should do the trick.
St. Louis Cardinals -106
I think the Birds have the better and more consistent starter, and while both offenses aren't scaring many pitchers this year, I think the Cardinals have the higher probability of have an offensive breakout. TEXs pen was great to start the year, but starting to falter a little bit here recently. The Cards didn't use Romero or O'Brien last night, so that helps my cause as well.
Houston Astros -112
The Pirates have lost 7 straight games when Bubba Chandler takes the mound. Houston gets Josh Hader back tonight I believe, which should really help. The pen has gotten better as the season has gone on, but adding an arm like Haders turns things up a notch.
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