Today Is Wednesday, And These Plays Are GOLD...I Hope

Sparky, what are your thoughts on the game below?  Thanks for your input.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
DAVID BUSH (120) 

VS

CHICAGO CUBS
RANDY WELLS(-140)

Love the writeups, infact without a writeup, its basically a wast of my time, unless you are a proven winner, which does not include 80% of the posters here...

I'm likely going to tail GH tomorrow on his dogs just cuz the favs have been cashing like mad so far. Bark time soon I'm thinking.

Funny cuz Estes a really respected capper here loses like 10 units or so, and I didn't see any haters in his thread. GH goes 2-6 for -3.5 and the whole thread was a disaster with flames.. LOL.. Makes you think...

GO GET-EM TODAY SPARKY

Good Luck Spark

Keep the write-ups.  I played the Angels and Diamondbacks yesterday so not a good day for me, but I like to hear what you have to say.

Thanks for the posts sparky. I do read them all as I am new to baseball betting! GL today!

Thanks for the write-ups Sparky.

I'm now leaving the Giants alone and am following you on the Royals/Tigers over.

BOL

Nice Call Again On Your Picks Yesteray Sparky!! I Really Thought The Yanks Game Would Be An Under......Nice Call On The Yanks...I Love Your First Selection For Today......However Still Considring Minnesota Over Boston.....Boston Has Not Proven Themselves Yet This Year For Me, Ok They Beat Kansas City But As You Saw Yesterday Thats Not Hard To Do..Minnesota However Won Their Home Opener And Have Been Streaking Wins At Least UP Till One Game b4 Boston They Finally Lost One...I Always Follow Streaking Teams And Until Minnesota Losses 2 In A Row...Thats When Ill Wait For The Chance As A Play Against.......Just Want To Say Nice Job On Your Picks And Good Luck Again Today!!!!

Good write ups Sparky......

4 out of the last 5 KC Det games have flown well over.......Does this continue? I dont think so

Impossible for him to be a fav, lines are built off perception the first 3 weeks.  Sox are the 3rd best team in the East and after Youk who in that offense scares you.  This is a below average team on the road like every year with them. 

nice writeup

nice card sparky....like the breakdown

8-10 games per day and taking all dogs across the board. Pure definition of grinding out the season because thats what a 50% handicapper does. A 389-395 record in August still equates to a winning season when you value-bet.

I don't think many really appreciate GH's method because its the same thing everyday -- slim faves and take as many underdogs as you can. And take the same road dog in a series until they win.

Lurkers look through threads to find winners. In GH's thread, a lurker have to do a lot of filtering because he plays so many games per day, with indistinguishable units.

Much easier to filter estes' plays, i think.

Anyways.

Bos/Minny - Kevin Slowey doesn't seem to be a good day-time pitcher.

Nice work Sparky like to read your stuff to validate my plays. Been riding the Cards, what a great power punch with Pujols and Holliday.

Picked out a couple others if you care to comment: the OV (8) in the AZ/LA game both teams almost .300 against R........ and S Fran team total.. whatever it is with SF hitting the righties and Morton  (a gas can). SF off the beat yest still scored five against a decent starter.

BOL TO YOU

appreciate your write up

First of
I respectively disagree.  I am sure I will have a few of , as I might confuse some of you with the following data. I also understand that I am using a small sample size of just this year (107 games).


Total Games Played this year =          107
Games Won by more than 1.5 runs=    72 or 67%
Games Won by 1.0 run=                     35 or 32%

Here is the difference maker:

Of the 35 games that were won by 1.0 there were 15 of them that were DOGS.  With that being said it wouldn't matter if you bet the RL vs ML as you would have lost straight up regardless.

Now lets run the numbers by taking out those 15 games as they would not have mattered.  That would bring the total number of games to 92 and total number of game won by 1.0 run to 20.

107                      35
-15                      -15
--------                 --------
92                        20


Total games that matter =                         92
Games Won by more than 1.5 runs =        72 or 78%
Games Won by 1.0 run =                         20 or 21%

WARNING:
Please note that I am NOT saying the FAVORITE is going to win 78% however, if you are going to bet the FAVORITE you are getting much better value taking the RL over the ML.


As a former science teacher, I always told my students that the DATA never lies. Math is the universal language as it explain everything around us.

I will leave you with this...If you are going to bet baseball do one of two things:

1. Bet the RL with the FAVORITE
                
               or

2. Bet the DOG


Make those -200 ML to -110
Make those -150 ML to + +120

If you go 55 % you will make money rather than loose money and if you go 60 %  you will make a hell of a lot of money. 

GOOD LUCK!

Cheers,

60percent


 

FYI...Matt Weiters is supposed to get the day off today..Jim Tatum to get the start...Balt Sun todays paper...

Yup. Wieters gets his first day off of the season. Comes at a great time as its a day game after a night game and then they fly out to the west coast. So essentially he gets about 2 full days rest.

Its Craig Tatum by the way. Not that it makes a differene cause he probably wont be hitting over 200 anyway.

THe lineup today makes me scratch my head. Get Jones out of the top 3... He is too much of a free swinger. Put him at #5 where he belongs. Put Nick at #2 or lead off with Brob out, he is the best OB person this team has right now. Also dont understand why Lugo isn't playing 2nd giving Brad the best defense behind him for his ground balls.

Adam Jones CF
Ty Wigginton 2B
Nick Markakis RF
Miguel Tejada 3B
Nolan Reimold LF
Luke Scott DH
Garrett Atkins 1B
Craig Tatum C
Cesar Izturis SS

love the cardinals play. idk how anyone can bet the astros right now.