We've had a good run lately - record stands at 4-2-1 on main plays and 1-1 on small small parlays - definitely on the plus side for the playoffs thus far. Let's look at some numbers:
6 TB Martinez 28
-164 Mil Misiorowski -7
Line opened at -164 for Milw. currently 188 -190 at many places (sportsmemo.com) . Martinez has a rating of 28 and got a win the last time out. Very solid pitcher. Misio. has a rating of -7 . Very elite as very few pitchers for an entire season have a rating of -7. He has more strikeouts than I.P. by a big margin - I believe more than any other pitcher this year. Not many pitchers have a -7 rating - definitely cream of the crop on paper . Last time out - Misio. had a No decision - where he gave up 1 Earned run and did not get a win or a loss. In addition, he hasn't pitched in 12 days.
I know on paper Misio. is the obvious choice but a few things cause me to pause:
1. He hasn't pitched in 12 days (I track this and there have been several games where the obvious pitcher on paper struggled out of the gate)
2. Nd where he gave up 1 run last time out (I track these things some data indicates in these situations take the away team)
3. We have had no -164 opening lines this playoff season; however, -163, -162, -177, -158 and the away team took it in those games.
4. I don't have ratings of 28 -7 to point to but some scenarios that are close in the playoffs over the years and from the regular season as well indicate the away team can take it.
My Play:
1. TB + 154
Good luck all - should be an enjoyable series.
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