SJP's MLB Roundtable (THURSDAY---June 9th, 2011)

thanks for the kind words..but im overrated..ill stop by and let you know what im on..im passin out..goodluck tom

Texas is my POD. I literally have about 7 or 8 strong factors going in Texas' favor. If Min wins, it will be a total statistical anomaly, or maybe because Holland gets drilled in the head with a line drive (I had a bill on Matt Clement years ago when that happened, lol).

Also betting TOR.

I was tempted to pick ATL, but reading the forums has kept me from going on them. Cool bats, and somehow the Fish always seem to just flat-out fuck with the Bravos.

Have a slight lean on DET and CWS, but the stats scared me off on those. Those might be close games.

BOL

I'M ROLLING WITH PITTSBURGH 108, CUBS 140, MINNESOTA 122, LA DODGERS AND THE POD DET/SEA OVER 7    

                                     HOLLA BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jays/Royals under 8.5

See heres your problem you're basing a past line on todays line. Also Mark is slumping this year hard to argue that fact, maybe hes been good in his last few starts but im concerned about the year as a whole. Also like i said taking a line from a series that happened at the beginning of the year and applying it today is not solid. Lines are based on perception, and earlier this year when edwin jackson faced off against cahill the white sox were projected to be one of the better teams in the AL and battle with the twins for the AL central, also during this time it was estimated that Oakland would wind up 2nd to last in the AL west just above the mariners. The white sox expectations have dropped quite a bit since then and the A's are right where a lot of people thought they would be, you can have great pitching all day, but you can't put the pressure the A's bats are putting on their pitchers and expect to win.

I would like one solid reason why everyone is jumping on a team that is 1-9 in their last 10 starts, 2-12 in their last 14 road games, 0-2 against the sox with cahill on the mound, a team that is hitting .242 against mark and has been dominated by him in the past who is slumping. Someone give me one solid reason why they should take the a's tonight? The line being a trap is not a solid reason, the a's hitting leties well is not a solid reason, they are only .227 on the year against lefties now. In their last 10 yes its .270 but that stat is misleading as in their last 10 games have only faced 2 lefties, britton and matusz.

GL with that A's bet if you take it, but i'm not sure how one could take a bet with no postive info going for it and expect to come out ahead. If you like the a's I would just not bet it and see what happens, better then risking money on a 1-9 team.

Not sure what you see in the Jays tomorrow that would lead you to believe this. They play the red sox in toronto tomorrow night, they won 2 games of this series already and are looking at a split, they have used up a great deal of their pitching, they haven't seen Hochevar well for most their career and even with their bats on fire the royals managed to only lose last nights game by 1. i could see romero being solid but this pick is not based on starting pitching alone. Might not play the RRL but it has solid value and I've seen the jays lose by two a lot when they lose.

nice writeup..but im banking on cahill rebounding from a rough stretch and pitching a gem..and if you look at the a's last ten..a bunch of games they lost were uncharacteristic in that they scored runs but couldnt get pitching..the whitesox are one of those teams that they win a few and everyone starts drinkin theier cool aid again..but they usualy dissapoint..right now im leaning a's..but just a lean..gl on your picks

lolol..they are absolutley ripping this he/she who goes by SJP apart over on the general discussion forum...very comical stuff to say the least

No.  No.  No.  Noooo!

I can't see them winning a game in Chicago this series.  Wait till they get back home against the Royals . . .

*BOL* today, Mizz Sarah! 

 GiL

keep dreaming

How about Jays/Royals Under 8.5

Hitters are a combined 10-51 against the starting pitchers.

Hochevar allows a .728 OPS at home, with a 1.23 WHIP.

Romero is coming off a non-quality start, and after a non-quality start in his career(22), he has thrown 15 quality starts.(Nearly 70%)

Not to mention, the total seems a tad low considering the last 2 games, and everyone seems to like the Over.

Yep  Not all about the white sox either but if i was gonna bet that game, it'd be the white sox. Much better games on the board today though, might make it the SS pick.

5 Innings Reds (Cueto) -109 over Giants (Bumgarner)

I have to love this. 57% of the Covers consensus likes the Giants, 75% of Covers “Team Experts” like the Giants, and so far 54% of the general public likes the Giants. Why? The Giants are 3-9 in Bumgarner’s starts, including 1-2 at home and are faced with a superior pitcher (per my rankings). Wait, it only gets better. The Reds are far and away the best lefty hitting team in the National League. There is a reason they have seen only 12 lefty starters in 63 games, far and away the lowest percentage in MLB, and it is not just because the NL Central lacks lefty starters. It is because the Reds slaughter left handed pitching and managers adjust rotations to avoid feeding lefties to the Reds. They may be 6-6 (thanks a lot bullpen) overall but in the 5 inning game they are knocking out lefties in 5.28 innings with 4.5 earned runs on the board. Bumgarner experienced that last year when the Reds were lefty killers and Bumgarner got blown away with 78 pitches and 7 earned runs (3 dingers) in just 2.2 innings. I suppose folks like the Giants 17-10 at home versus the Reds 12-16 on the road, but don’t forget averages tend to come back toward the middle and the Giants are probably not going to win 63% of their home games all year. So, if the home field is that big a factor and the Giants have the fans and bettors on their side, why aren’t they favored?