I would just take a later game unless you can get in at a better price on one of those teams, but not because they are down a run or anything. Sometimes u can get a better line just if the other team has guys on 1st or second at still a 0-0 game
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Quote Originally Posted by Skrkro:
I'm too late! Any live thoughts???
I would just take a later game unless you can get in at a better price on one of those teams, but not because they are down a run or anything. Sometimes u can get a better line just if the other team has guys on 1st or second at still a 0-0 game
It works for anything that allows you to have live data of the bet % and line. You would look for over/under % against the total movement and with NFL you look at the bet % vs the spread.
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Quote Originally Posted by iceman2003:
Does RLM work for totals?
It works for anything that allows you to have live data of the bet % and line. You would look for over/under % against the total movement and with NFL you look at the bet % vs the spread.
You can also use bet % vs money line in NFL but you would look for a bigger move than in MLB. For MLB I look for a move greater than 8 points, in football I would look for a move greater than 14 points. I got these numbers based on a study I read which determined that they give the best results as apposed t smaller moves.
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You can also use bet % vs money line in NFL but you would look for a bigger move than in MLB. For MLB I look for a move greater than 8 points, in football I would look for a move greater than 14 points. I got these numbers based on a study I read which determined that they give the best results as apposed t smaller moves.
I'd like to say a special f-off to the Padres who were supposed to lose a million games and somehow won over their season total already of 66.5..were said to have the worst pitching staff in the league, etc, etc
won with a bunch of stiffs and I'm posting it here because I did take them the second half of the year to win some games based on RLM but whatever...they just beat people with total crap...
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I'd like to say a special f-off to the Padres who were supposed to lose a million games and somehow won over their season total already of 66.5..were said to have the worst pitching staff in the league, etc, etc
won with a bunch of stiffs and I'm posting it here because I did take them the second half of the year to win some games based on RLM but whatever...they just beat people with total crap...
So there's a free website that actually tells you if a line movement is sharp money and you believe it?
Lines available to the public are heavily manipulated so there's really no way to know if what you're looking at is real or fabricated. Only vegas knows the true line movement
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So there's a free website that actually tells you if a line movement is sharp money and you believe it?
Lines available to the public are heavily manipulated so there's really no way to know if what you're looking at is real or fabricated. Only vegas knows the true line movement
Yesterday went terrible.. as I'm sure most of you know. Every one has bad luck from time to time and although this was discouraging and makes me want to just walk away from this thread and let it die lol I am not ready to call it quits on this system yet as it has been working very well all season. One of the main reasons I decided to make this thread is because i followed AFNfootballnerd for most of the season using RLM plays and it worked very well all season. Since he stopped posting I figured I would continue on with the system that got us this far. So today My picks are:
NYM +134 https://prntscr.com/gnihyo
SF +113 https://prntscr.com/gnii9e
TB +109 https://prntscr.com/gnijfq
LAA -102 https://prntscr.com/gniizv
Bolt. +179 https://prntscr.com/gniink
Risking 5% on each pick.. GL
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Yesterday went terrible.. as I'm sure most of you know. Every one has bad luck from time to time and although this was discouraging and makes me want to just walk away from this thread and let it die lol I am not ready to call it quits on this system yet as it has been working very well all season. One of the main reasons I decided to make this thread is because i followed AFNfootballnerd for most of the season using RLM plays and it worked very well all season. Since he stopped posting I figured I would continue on with the system that got us this far. So today My picks are:
So there's a free website that actually tells you if a line movement is sharp money and you believe it?
Lines available to the public are heavily manipulated so there's really no way to know if what you're looking at is real or fabricated. Only vegas knows the true line movement
There is absolutely no way that the top 15-20 Vegas sports books nor the top 10-15 offshores just hand over their transactional data to a 3rd party - their books, their exposure, their ticket count and handle - it's just 100% not happening.
These are corporations that protect their data - just like every other financial company dealing with risk based cash products - like brokerages and insurance companies.
Is William Hill or The Westgate just going to pipe out their real time transactions, books and records?
Nunca en un millon de años.
This time of year in MLB there is little open interest, a thin float, so a little money makes for large swings in price - just like small cap, low float stocks; a small positive article in a magazine causes a 10% move, just because there are hardly any shares in the float. Same thing with these low interest games. ESPN shows a highlight or puts up a stat and the line moves. Books move their lines on a sneeze.
Is it smart money? sharp money? square money? girl money?
Sharps might be only playing one game and the line moves - but is there enough or any square interest (real or reported by the 3rd party) for it to be noted as RLM? Or it is just one sided sharp steam on a team that should win?
There is no way to know. The websites that give you % and handle are fulla shineola and are no different than Covers consensus here where it's a contest with fake money determining the % and handle.
JMHO
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Quote Originally Posted by fadeaway123:
So there's a free website that actually tells you if a line movement is sharp money and you believe it?
Lines available to the public are heavily manipulated so there's really no way to know if what you're looking at is real or fabricated. Only vegas knows the true line movement
There is absolutely no way that the top 15-20 Vegas sports books nor the top 10-15 offshores just hand over their transactional data to a 3rd party - their books, their exposure, their ticket count and handle - it's just 100% not happening.
These are corporations that protect their data - just like every other financial company dealing with risk based cash products - like brokerages and insurance companies.
Is William Hill or The Westgate just going to pipe out their real time transactions, books and records?
Nunca en un millon de años.
This time of year in MLB there is little open interest, a thin float, so a little money makes for large swings in price - just like small cap, low float stocks; a small positive article in a magazine causes a 10% move, just because there are hardly any shares in the float. Same thing with these low interest games. ESPN shows a highlight or puts up a stat and the line moves. Books move their lines on a sneeze.
Is it smart money? sharp money? square money? girl money?
Sharps might be only playing one game and the line moves - but is there enough or any square interest (real or reported by the 3rd party) for it to be noted as RLM? Or it is just one sided sharp steam on a team that should win?
There is no way to know. The websites that give you % and handle are fulla shineola and are no different than Covers consensus here where it's a contest with fake money determining the % and handle.
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