Posted:
#26
are you picking up where AFN left off? where did he go? 
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Reverse Line Movement System 9/18/17 MLB Picks
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by skrkro27:
are you picking up where AFN left off? where did he go?
are you picking up where AFN left off? where did he go?
I don't know where he went? I hope he comes back.. I'm not intending to take his place but I know he is a fan of RLM plays. I know he deviated a bit in the past couple weeks from his system and went into a bit of a slump. I hope that he just took a break to try and reset and did not blow his account chasing the losses.
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Posted:
#29
So far I have my eyes on the Braves at +188
Scherz has had troubles with braves this year in 3 of 4 starts. We have some reverse line movement against the Washington indicating smart money coming in for Atlanta. It's still a bit early but this is definitely a contender for a strong RLM play.
https://prntscr.com/gn3kj2
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Posted:
#31
Its % of bets.. We watch the way the ML moves to see where the money is coming in. With the public bet going from 75 to 93% for Washington but the moneyline still moving 20 points against them it indicates the Sharps have made a couple big wagers against the public in favor of Atlanta. Looks like last night a huge wager was made in favor of the Braves and then again this morning around 10:30...
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Posted:
#32
What you would typically expect if the sharps where not betting against the public is what is happening on the Yankees ml with the Yankees line growing more and more expensive as the bet % increases for the Yankees. This is an example of a big line movement that is not a reverse line movement.
https://prntscr.com/gn3zon
https://prntscr.com/gn3zon
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Posted:
#33
This doesn't tell us as much, other than the public is betting on the favorite which is driving up the line as expected. I shows that either the sharps are laying ff this game or slightly favor the yankees. If the line all of a sudden becomes much cheaper for the Yankees even though the are a heavy % of the public bet then we would know the sharps are betting on the Twins, but this is not the case.
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but I would like to se a higher % than it is at now which will probably happen as we get closer to game time.
Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by PlayWithThem:
Thanks stocktrader. How do you determine whether a dog is a public one?
Thanks stocktrader. How do you determine whether a dog is a public one?
Technically if there is more than 50% of the bets coming in are for the dog than it is a public dog, but I like to see it up around 70% or more because there is some margin for error.. How I define a noteworthy move is an 8 point move or higher in MLB or a 14 point move or higher in NFL. An 8 point or higher RLM is a clear sign that a sharp just put 30-50k+ against the public bet. The closer we get to game time the more volume is in the market and the more money it takes to move the line so we give more weight to the moves that happen witthin a few hours of the game.
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:
this system looks interesting.. to help me understand, would pitt be on the radar as well as a qualifying lead?
this system looks interesting.. to help me understand, would pitt be on the radar as well as a qualifying lead?
It's only been a 4 or 5 point move and it isn't a reverse line movement. As more people entered bets on Pittsburgh the payout is lowered. This is just typical line movement that is to be expected not RLM.
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BOL
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by cdog60:
I have used this strategy in the past and it works sometimes, my only issue is there is no way to distinguish a sharp play from a value play with big underdogs
I have used this strategy in the past and it works sometimes, my only issue is there is no way to distinguish a sharp play from a value play with big underdogs
With a value play you would see the line start out cheap and get more expensive as the bet % rises. In a sharp play the line would become less expensive even when the bet % is rising. Also a play can be a value play and have RLM when the sharp money recognizes value in an underdog that the public does not due to an overhyped favorite. The 3 things I look for when making my pick are, is it a contrarian bet, is their reverse line movement between bet % and price, and did this move happen instantly rather than the line slowly increasing or decreasing in value as the bet % changes.. When you have all 3 than you can be sure that smart money has entered the bet against the public and it will be a strong pick based on this system.
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by Degenerate69:
Great info! I'm curious once the RLM has occurred isn't all the value gone?
Great info! I'm curious once the RLM has occurred isn't all the value gone?
Typically you will have a sharp move and then a return to median and you can get in a better price at this return to median, but it doesnt always happen. Also sometimes if the public bet is strong enough they will slowly bring the price back to where it was before the move. What you would look for is a instant big move against the public and then a slower stair step return back to where it was before the sharp move. So this is a way you can still get value out of these moves, but even if you do not get a return to median at least you can make the pick resting assured that you are on the side of the smart money and an upset is likely.
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Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by stocktrader15:
Typically you will have a sharp move and then a return to median and you can get in a better price at this return to median, but it doesnt always happen. Also sometimes if the public bet is strong enough they will slowly bring the price back to where it was before the move. What you would look for is a instant big move against the public and then a slower stair step return back to where it was before the sharp move. So this is a way you can still get value out of these moves, but even if you do not get a return to median at least you can make the pick resting assured that you are on the side of the smart money and an upset is likely.
Typically you will have a sharp move and then a return to median and you can get in a better price at this return to median, but it doesnt always happen. Also sometimes if the public bet is strong enough they will slowly bring the price back to where it was before the move. What you would look for is a instant big move against the public and then a slower stair step return back to where it was before the sharp move. So this is a way you can still get value out of these moves, but even if you do not get a return to median at least you can make the pick resting assured that you are on the side of the smart money and an upset is likely.
pirates look like that move, man. lol. i know you said no, but when i typed that out, it was exactly 8 cent drop. it went back to the median, then plunged again even deeper into -105 when only 38% of public is on pirates according to sbr
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by stocktrader15:
Typically you will have a sharp move and then a return to median and you can get in a better price at this return to median, but it doesnt always happen. Also sometimes if the public bet is strong enough they will slowly bring the price back to where it was before the move. What you would look for is a instant big move against the public and then a slower stair step return back to where it was before the sharp move. So this is a way you can still get value out of these moves, but even if you do not get a return to median at least you can make the pick resting assured that you are on the side of the smart money and an upset is likely.
Typically you will have a sharp move and then a return to median and you can get in a better price at this return to median, but it doesnt always happen. Also sometimes if the public bet is strong enough they will slowly bring the price back to where it was before the move. What you would look for is a instant big move against the public and then a slower stair step return back to where it was before the sharp move. So this is a way you can still get value out of these moves, but even if you do not get a return to median at least you can make the pick resting assured that you are on the side of the smart money and an upset is likely.
Thanks. I really like this system. It makes complete sense. Anymore picks other than ATL?
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